本文關(guān)鍵詞： 東盟 對(duì)外直接投資 風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 物元可拓模型　出處：《南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化和區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的不斷發(fā)展,中國(guó)政府積極參與全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的合作與競(jìng)爭(zhēng),鼓勵(lì)中國(guó)企業(yè)到東盟進(jìn)行投資,東盟是中國(guó)極具發(fā)展?jié)摿Φ馁Q(mào)易伙伴。但是由于東盟各國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平差距很大,政治環(huán)境、社會(huì)傳統(tǒng)、宗教信仰等方面不盡相同,所以仍然存在較大的投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。另外,學(xué)術(shù)界對(duì)投資東盟的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)方面的相關(guān)研究雖然有很大突破,但是仍然存在一些不足,尤其是對(duì)具有中國(guó)特色的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究有限,缺乏系統(tǒng)地闡述我國(guó)企業(yè)對(duì)東盟投資所面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),無(wú)法判斷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)。因此本文對(duì)我國(guó)企業(yè)投資東盟的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問(wèn)題進(jìn)行研究具有一定的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文首先介紹了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究的相關(guān)背景和理論,說(shuō)明了研究我國(guó)企業(yè)投資東盟的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的重要意義及必要性。接著運(yùn)用定性和定量相結(jié)合的方法,對(duì)中國(guó)企業(yè)投資東盟的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了分析,主要包括投資的規(guī)模、國(guó)別分布和行業(yè)分布三方面。然后確定了中國(guó)企業(yè)投資東盟的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)表現(xiàn)形式,包括政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、文化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、法律風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。同時(shí),結(jié)合中航油(新加坡)案例,總結(jié)其失敗遭遇的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),以及成功的原因。接下來(lái),本文重點(diǎn)構(gòu)建了對(duì)東盟直接投資的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。首先,選取政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和其他風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為一級(jí)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo),確定各指標(biāo)包含的二級(jí)、三級(jí)指標(biāo)；其次,運(yùn)用專(zhuān)家打分法和層次分析法確定各級(jí)指標(biāo)權(quán)重,并結(jié)合數(shù)據(jù)資料,對(duì)各級(jí)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)賦值打分；最后,運(yùn)用線(xiàn)性代數(shù)的方法求取各一級(jí)指標(biāo)的分值。接著本文建立了關(guān)于上述風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系的物元可拓模型,運(yùn)用關(guān)聯(lián)函數(shù)評(píng)定各國(guó)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)。最后,根據(jù)研究結(jié)果,分國(guó)別提出相應(yīng)的對(duì)策建議,達(dá)到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防范的目的。通過(guò)研究本文得出這樣的結(jié)論：第一,從數(shù)量上看,中國(guó)企業(yè)對(duì)東盟直接投資的絕對(duì)規(guī)模在穩(wěn)定擴(kuò)大,但是相對(duì)規(guī)模整體較��；國(guó)別分布極不平衡,主要流入新加坡；行業(yè)主要涉及電力、熱力、燃?xì)饧八纳a(chǎn)和供應(yīng)業(yè)、采礦業(yè)等行業(yè)。第二,中國(guó)對(duì)東盟直接投資面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)主要包括政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、文化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、法律風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。中航油(新加坡)公司失敗主要是因?yàn)榻?jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和法律風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。第三,實(shí)證結(jié)果,對(duì)東盟各國(guó)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)評(píng)價(jià)基本符合實(shí)際情況。從整體上看文萊、新加坡和老撾屬于較低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)國(guó)家,投資環(huán)境良好；柬埔寨、馬來(lái)西亞、泰國(guó)和越南屬于中等風(fēng)險(xiǎn)國(guó)家；緬甸、印度尼西亞和菲律賓屬于較高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的國(guó)家。本文創(chuàng)新之處在于定量評(píng)定了東盟各國(guó)的直接投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí),豐富了現(xiàn)有的關(guān)于東盟投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的研究。但難免有很多不足之處,有待進(jìn)一步改進(jìn)。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of economic globalization and regional economic integration, the Chinese government actively participates in the global economic cooperation and competition, and encourages Chinese enterprises to invest in ASEAN. ASEAN is a potential trading partner of China. However, due to the wide economic development level of ASEAN countries, the political environment, social traditions, religious beliefs and other aspects are not the same. Therefore, there is still a large investment risk. In addition, the academic community on the risk of ASEAN investment although there is a great breakthrough, but there are still some deficiencies. Especially, the research on the risks with Chinese characteristics is limited, and the risks faced by Chinese enterprises investing in ASEAN are not expounded systematically. Therefore, this paper has certain theoretical and practical significance to study the risk of Chinese enterprises investing in ASEAN. Firstly, this paper introduces the relevant background and theory of risk research. This paper explains the significance and necessity of studying the risk of Chinese enterprises investing in ASEAN, and then analyzes the current situation of Chinese enterprises investing in ASEAN by using qualitative and quantitative methods, mainly including the scale of investment. Then it determines the risk forms of Chinese enterprises investing in ASEAN, including political risk, economic risk, cultural risk, legal risk, financial risk. Combined with the case of China Aviation Oil (Singapore), summarizes the risk of its failure, and the reasons for success. Next, this paper focuses on the construction of the ASEAN direct investment risk evaluation index system. First, select the political risk. The economic risk, investment risk, competition risk and other risk are the primary evaluation indexes, and the second and third grade indexes are determined. Secondly, the expert scoring method and analytic hierarchy process are used to determine the weight of index at all levels, and combined with the data, the evaluation index at all levels is assigned a score. Finally, we use the method of linear algebra to get the scores of each first-order index. Then, we establish the matter-element extension model about the risk evaluation index system mentioned above, and use the correlation function to evaluate the risk grade of each country. Finally. According to the results of the study, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward by countries to achieve the purpose of risk prevention. Through the study of this paper, we draw such a conclusion: first, from a quantitative point of view. The absolute scale of Chinese enterprises' direct investment in ASEAN is expanding steadily, but the relative scale is relatively small. The distribution of countries is very uneven, mainly into Singapore; Industry mainly involves power, heat, gas and water production and supply, mining and other industries. Second, China's direct investment in ASEAN faces risks including political risk, economic risk, cultural risk. Legal risk and financial risk. The failure of China Aviation Oil (Singapore) is mainly due to operational risk, financial risk and legal risk. Third, empirical results. On the whole, Brunei, Singapore and Laos belong to the lower risk countries, and the investment environment is good; Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam are medium-risk countries; Myanmar, Indonesia and the Philippines are high risk countries. The innovation of this paper is the quantitative evaluation of the risk of direct investment in ASEAN countries. It enriches the existing research on ASEAN investment risk, but it inevitably has many shortcomings and needs to be further improved.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F279.2;F125

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