本文關(guān)鍵詞： 經(jīng)濟周期協(xié)動性 貿(mào)易強度 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)相似度 出口結(jié)構(gòu)相似度 產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易　出處：《寧波大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟全球化和區(qū)域一體化的迅速發(fā)展，學(xué)者們也漸漸將經(jīng)濟周期的鉆研對象從單獨經(jīng)濟體轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)槎嘣?jīng)濟體，從孤立的研究轉(zhuǎn)向各經(jīng)濟體互動的開放型研究。全球化趨勢下各國在經(jīng)濟領(lǐng)域的交往更加頻繁，一國能夠通過貿(mào)易、金融等多種渠道傳遞本國的經(jīng)濟周期波動至其他國家，與之相應(yīng)的是，本國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展也會受到外來因素的影響，這類相互作用使得各個國家間的經(jīng)濟周期協(xié)動性呈現(xiàn)逐步增強的趨勢。于是在開放的世界經(jīng)濟形勢下，國際貿(mào)易對經(jīng)濟周期進行傳導(dǎo)的機制就成了十分值得探討的話題。 本文從經(jīng)濟周期的貿(mào)易傳導(dǎo)機制入手，采用矩分析的方法對比了中日韓經(jīng)濟周期的穩(wěn)定性、可持續(xù)性和協(xié)動性三方面的波動特征，沿著經(jīng)濟周期的貿(mào)易傳遞這一路徑，以中日韓三國為研究對象，選取了貿(mào)易強度、出口產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)等貿(mào)易傳遞因素，建立FR模型并采用OLS及3SLS方法回歸分析了這些貿(mào)易因素對經(jīng)濟周期協(xié)動變化的作用程度，同時比較分析了中日、中韓、日韓經(jīng)濟周期協(xié)動性傳導(dǎo)因素的差異和影響水平的強弱，為東北亞經(jīng)濟一體化加強的趨勢下我國通過宏觀調(diào)控手段來規(guī)避外部因素沖擊提供了依據(jù)�；谶@些研究，本文主要結(jié)論如下： （1）雙邊貿(mào)易強度對中日、日韓經(jīng)濟周期協(xié)動性的作用為正方向的，而對中韓的經(jīng)濟周期協(xié)動性的作用是反方向的。 （2）在經(jīng)濟周期協(xié)動性的三個專業(yè)化指標中，產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)相似度對經(jīng)濟周期協(xié)動性的影響程度最小，基于對外貿(mào)易的專業(yè)化指標對經(jīng)濟周期協(xié)動性的影響較基于工業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的專業(yè)化指標大。 （3）日韓產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)相似度對經(jīng)濟周期協(xié)動性的影響程度要大于中日、中韓，這是由日韓之間的第二產(chǎn)業(yè)相似性程度較高所致。 最后，，在對實證結(jié)論進行原因分析的基礎(chǔ)上，本文提出未來我國應(yīng)建立防止外部沖擊的監(jiān)測預(yù)警機制、保持合理的貿(mào)易增長水平、調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)和出口產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)等對策建議。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economic globalization and regional integration, scholars have gradually changed the research object of economic cycle from single economy to multiple economy. From isolated research to open research on the interaction of economies. Under the trend of globalization, countries interact more frequently in the economic field, and a country can trade through it. Finance and other channels to transfer the domestic economic cycle fluctuations to other countries, corresponding to the domestic economic development will also be affected by external factors. Such interactions have led to a gradual increase in the economic cycle dynamics among countries, and thus in the open world economic situation. The transmission mechanism of international trade to the economic cycle has become a topic worth discussing. Starting with the trade transmission mechanism of the economic cycle, this paper compares the fluctuation characteristics of the economic cycle between China, Japan and South Korea in three aspects, namely, stability, sustainability and co-movement by using the method of moment analysis. Trade transmission along the economic cycle of China, Japan and South Korea as the research object, selected trade intensity, export product structure, intra-industry trade, industrial structure and other trade transmission factors. The FR model was established and the effects of these trade factors on the economic cycle were analyzed by using OLS and 3SLS regression analysis. At the same time, China, Japan, China and South Korea were compared and analyzed. The difference of the coactive conduction factors and the influence level of the economic cycle in Japan and Korea. It provides the basis for our country to avoid the impact of external factors by means of macro-control under the trend of economic integration in Northeast Asia. Based on these studies, the main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1) the effect of bilateral trade intensity on Sino-Japanese, Japan-Korea economic cycle synergy is positive, but on Sino-Korean economic cycle synergism is in the opposite direction. Among the three specialization indexes, the similarity of industrial structure has the least influence on the coactivity of business cycle. The influence of specialization index based on foreign trade on the coordination of economic cycle is greater than that on industrial structure. (3) the industrial structure similarity between Japan and South Korea has more influence on the coactivity of business cycle than that between China and Japan, which is caused by the high similarity of secondary industry between Japan and South Korea. Finally, based on the analysis of the reasons of the empirical conclusions, this paper proposes that China should establish a monitoring and early warning mechanism to prevent external shocks in the future, and maintain a reasonable level of trade growth. Adjustment of industrial and export product structure and other countermeasures.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：寧波大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F752.7;F113.7

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