本文關(guān)鍵詞：未觀測經(jīng)濟測算及其在內(nèi)蒙古自治區(qū)應(yīng)用研究　出處：《內(nèi)蒙古農(nóng)業(yè)大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 未觀測經(jīng)濟 收支差異法 貨運量模型 MIMIC模型

【摘要】：國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)是衡量一個國家的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平、制定宏觀經(jīng)濟政策的主要參考指標。但是,由于各種原因,總有未被測算的生產(chǎn)活動。未觀測經(jīng)濟的存在,降低了GDP數(shù)據(jù)的準確性。鑒于它的隱蔽性和特殊性,政府部門難以對其進行度量,因此,如何準確計算和衡量未包含在國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值中的經(jīng)濟規(guī)模成為近年來研究GDP數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量的焦點。 本文在借鑒國內(nèi)外研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,簡要介紹未觀測經(jīng)濟的概念、分類和影響因素。梳理未觀測經(jīng)濟的測算方法,結(jié)合內(nèi)蒙古自治區(qū)的現(xiàn)實情況,運用收支差異法、物量投入法的貨運量模型、潛在變量法的MIMIC模型分別對內(nèi)蒙古自治區(qū)未觀測經(jīng)濟進行測算,探討三種方法的適用性。在測算過程中,通過MIMIC模型法得到內(nèi)蒙古未觀測經(jīng)濟的主要影響因素包括稅收負擔、非正規(guī)經(jīng)濟和政府管制程度三方面,最后結(jié)合測算過程中發(fā)現(xiàn)的問題和最終的測算結(jié)果提出建議。
[Abstract]:Gross domestic product (GDP) is the main reference index to measure a country's level of economic development and formulate macroeconomic policies. However, for a variety of reasons. There are always unmeasured production activities. The existence of unobserved economy reduces the accuracy of GDP data. In view of its concealment and particularity, it is difficult for government departments to measure it. How to accurately calculate and measure the economic scale not included in GDP has become the focus of research on GDP data quality in recent years. Based on the research results at home and abroad, this paper briefly introduces the concept, classification and influencing factors of unobserved economy, combing the measurement methods of unobserved economy, and combining with the reality of Inner Mongolia Autonomous region. The unobserved economy of Inner Mongolia Autonomous region is measured by using the freight volume model of income and expenditure difference method, the volume input method and the MIMIC model of latent variable method. The applicability of the three methods is discussed in the course of calculation. The main influencing factors of the unobserved economy in Inner Mongolia are the tax burden, the informal economy and the degree of government regulation. Finally, combined with the problems found in the calculation process and the final calculation results, some suggestions are put forward.
【學位授予單位】：內(nèi)蒙古農(nóng)業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F127;F224

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