本文關鍵詞：中國經(jīng)濟短期波動對長期增長的影響——資源在企業(yè)間重新配置的視角　出處：《管理世界》2017年01期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關文章： 經(jīng)濟波動 經(jīng)濟增長 異質(zhì)性企業(yè) 清理效應

【摘要】：2008年國際金融危機之后,中國經(jīng)濟波動明顯加劇,增速不斷下滑。本文基于熊彼特"創(chuàng)造性破壞"思想,通過改進AABM模型分析中國經(jīng)濟波動如何影響長期增長趨勢,并基于中國1979~2012年的省際面板數(shù)據(jù)實證檢驗理論模型的部分結(jié)論。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):1978年之前,中國經(jīng)濟短期波動與長期增長趨勢之間呈現(xiàn)負相關;1978年之后到此輪經(jīng)濟下行之前,中國經(jīng)濟短期波動和長期增長趨勢之間呈現(xiàn)正相關;進入新常態(tài)以來,中國經(jīng)濟短期波動和長期增長趨勢之間又呈現(xiàn)負相關,即在中華人民共和國經(jīng)濟史上,經(jīng)濟波動與經(jīng)濟增長的關系呈現(xiàn)出"負—正—負"的階段性特征。這3個階段性特征背后的原因是不同的。1978年以來,中國經(jīng)濟波動和經(jīng)濟增長正相關關系產(chǎn)生的主要原因是改革紅利的釋放,即通過經(jīng)濟波動淘汰低效率企業(yè)和低效率投資項目、優(yōu)化企業(yè)間的資源配置,進而促進經(jīng)濟增長。隨著低效率企業(yè)和低效率投資項目的減少以及改革逐漸步入深水區(qū),中國經(jīng)濟波動對經(jīng)濟增長的促進效應是遞減的。逆轉(zhuǎn)當前中國經(jīng)濟下行,通過深化體制改革,提高市場化程度,促進金融發(fā)展,來改進和優(yōu)化資源在區(qū)域間、產(chǎn)業(yè)間重新配置是主要出路。
[Abstract]:After the international financial crisis in 2008, the fluctuation of Chinese economy became more and more serious, and the growth rate was declining. This paper is based on Schumpeter's thought of "creative destruction". By improving the AABM model, this paper analyzes how the fluctuation of Chinese economy affects the long-term growth trend. And based on some conclusions of empirical test model of inter-provincial panel data from 1979 to 2012 in China, the study found that: before 1978. There is a negative correlation between the short-term fluctuation of Chinese economy and the long-term growth trend. After 1978, there was a positive correlation between the short-term fluctuation and the long-term growth trend of Chinese economy before this round of economic decline. Since entering the new normal, there is a negative correlation between the short-term fluctuation and the long-term growth trend of the Chinese economy, that is, in the economic history of the people's Republic of China. The relationship between economic fluctuation and economic growth shows the "negative-positive-negative" phase characteristics. The reasons behind these three stages are different. Since 1978. The main reason for the positive correlation between economic fluctuation and economic growth in China is the release of reform dividend, that is, the elimination of inefficient enterprises and inefficient investment projects through economic fluctuations, and the optimization of resource allocation among enterprises. And then promote economic growth. With the reduction of inefficient enterprises and inefficient investment projects and reform gradually into the deep water area. The promotion effect of China's economic fluctuation on economic growth is diminishing. Reverse the current downward trend of China's economy and improve and optimize resources among regions by deepening institutional reform, improving marketization and promoting financial development. Industrial reconfiguration is the main way out.
【作者單位】： 中國人民大學經(jīng)濟學院;中國人民大學統(tǒng)計學院;
【基金】：國家社科基金重大項目“中國經(jīng)濟自發(fā)展能力研究”(15ZDB133)的成果之一
【分類號】：F124
【正文快照】： 一、引言2008年國際金融危機之后,中國經(jīng)濟呈現(xiàn)出波動加劇、增速放緩的現(xiàn)象。若與危機前2007年14.2%的增速相比,此輪經(jīng)濟下滑幅度已超過50%(2015年已跌破7.0%)。若從季度數(shù)據(jù)來看,從2010第一季度的12.2%高點開始,經(jīng)濟增速已經(jīng)連續(xù)23個季度走低,其中有15個季度增速低于8%。此輪

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