本文關(guān)鍵詞：金融機(jī)構(gòu)貸款對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的乘數(shù)效應(yīng)分析　出處：《山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 金融機(jī)構(gòu)貸款 實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng) 資金流量表 乘數(shù)分析

【摘要】：2009~2015年期間,我國(guó)金融機(jī)構(gòu)的貸款業(yè)務(wù)不斷迅速擴(kuò)張,而經(jīng)濟(jì)也在穩(wěn)步發(fā)展,毋庸置疑金融機(jī)構(gòu)部門的貸款融資是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不可或缺的關(guān)鍵因素,但是經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入新常態(tài)時(shí)期,貸款總量卻依然不斷在增速,如此反差現(xiàn)象難免會(huì)有疑問(wèn),我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是否過(guò)度依賴于貸款推動(dòng)?是否能夠更進(jìn)一步細(xì)致分析社會(huì)各個(gè)方面的貸款對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的作用?貨幣政策作為政府調(diào)控經(jīng)濟(jì)的手段,該如何合理地去實(shí)施?這些問(wèn)題都值得去深思,因此本文針對(duì)以上問(wèn)題來(lái)對(duì)金融機(jī)構(gòu)的貸款對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響做出具體深入分析。本文首先分析出金融機(jī)構(gòu)貸款對(duì)實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)直接和完全的影響機(jī)制,其次根據(jù)實(shí)際需求靈活編制出2001~2014年矩陣式資金流量表以及2015年資金流量延長(zhǎng)表,并且創(chuàng)新性的以資金流量表為研究大背景即完整的資金流動(dòng)系統(tǒng),將乘數(shù)分析模型引入分析資金流量表中具體交易項(xiàng)目貸款對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響,最終得出的結(jié)果是:在國(guó)內(nèi)首次測(cè)算出各機(jī)構(gòu)部門使用貸款情況對(duì)其產(chǎn)出直接與完全影響程度,即“部門*交易”的直接收入(支出)系數(shù)和完全收入(支出)系數(shù),同時(shí)將各個(gè)部門綜合起來(lái)可知總貸款量對(duì)整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的乘數(shù)效應(yīng)。比較分析以上貸款對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的拉動(dòng)與推動(dòng)作用的差異以及其各自的變化趨勢(shì)得出:非金融企業(yè)較大依賴于金融機(jī)構(gòu)的貸款,住戶部門的消費(fèi)貸款也是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的重要關(guān)鍵點(diǎn),其次是金融部門發(fā)展壯大的速度非常快,另外也要挖掘國(guó)外機(jī)構(gòu)部門發(fā)展的潛力,整體來(lái)看,金融機(jī)構(gòu)貸款對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的作用程度隨時(shí)間變化基本平穩(wěn),變動(dòng)甚微,但值得注意的是,在經(jīng)濟(jì)新常態(tài)下,貸款對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)機(jī)構(gòu)部門的完全影響都微小增大。根據(jù)以上結(jié)果為“實(shí)現(xiàn)優(yōu)化資金利用率、提升經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展”的相關(guān)機(jī)構(gòu)部門以及中央人民銀行提出切實(shí)可行的政策建議。
[Abstract]:From 2009 to 2015, the loan business of financial institutions in our country has been expanding rapidly, and the economy is developing steadily. There is no doubt that the loan financing of financial institutions is an indispensable key factor in economic development, but when the economy enters the new normal period, the total amount of loans is still increasing continuously, so the contrast will inevitably be questioned. Is our economic growth overly dependent on lending? Can we further analyze the role of loans in various aspects of society on the real economy? Monetary policy as a means of government regulation and control of the economy, how to implement it reasonably? These questions are worth pondering. Therefore, this paper aims at the above problems to make a specific and in-depth analysis of the impact of financial institutions' loans on the real economy. Firstly, this paper analyzes the direct and complete mechanism of the financial institutions' loans to the real economy. Secondly, according to the actual demand, the matrix capital flow statement from 2001 to 2014 and the fund flow extension table on 2015 are compiled flexibly. And the innovative capital flow statement as the background of the study, that is, the complete capital flow system, the multiplier analysis model is introduced to analyze the impact of specific transactions in the fund flow statement on the economy. The final result is that, for the first time in China, the extent to which the use of loans by institutions has a direct and complete impact on their output has been measured. That is, the direct income (expenditure) coefficient and the complete income (expenditure) coefficient of "sector * transaction". At the same time, we can know the multiplier effect of the total loan amount on the whole economy by synthesizing all the departments. By comparing and analyzing the difference of the pulling and promoting effects of the above loans to the real economy and their respective changing trends, we can draw the conclusion that:. Non-financial enterprises rely heavily on loans from financial institutions. Household sector consumer loans are also an important key point of economic growth, followed by the rapid development of the financial sector, and also to tap the potential of the development of foreign institutions, overall. The effect of financial institution loans on the real economy changes steadily with time, with little change, but it is worth noting that in the new normal state of the economy. The full impact of lending on the domestic institutional sector has increased slightly. According to the above results, "optimize the utilization of funds". The relevant institutions and departments of promoting economic development as well as the Central people's Bank of China put forward practical policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F124;F832.4

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