本文關(guān)鍵詞：人口變化趨勢下升學(xué)率對GDP影響的仿真研究　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 系統(tǒng)動力學(xué) 生育水平 勞動力人口 升學(xué)率 GDP

【摘要】：隨著科學(xué)技術(shù)的迅猛發(fā)展和知識經(jīng)濟的到來,我國在上個世紀(jì)末就提出了“科教興國”的戰(zhàn)略。如今,知識已經(jīng)成為了社會的又一生產(chǎn)要素�？茖W(xué)技術(shù)不斷轉(zhuǎn)化為現(xiàn)實生產(chǎn)力,而推動科學(xué)技術(shù)發(fā)展并使之發(fā)揮作用的關(guān)鍵因素是人。在過去的30年里,我國快速的人口增長勢頭得到有效控制,人口總量增長速度下降,但同時老年人口的比重也在不斷增加,勞動力人口比重開始減小,使得我國過早進入人口老齡化時期,人口紅利持續(xù)下降甚至?xí)�。在�?jīng)濟的增長中,除了物質(zhì)資本的投入,人力資本也發(fā)揮著相當(dāng)重要的作用。而教育能夠提高勞動力的技能水平,提高勞動生產(chǎn)率,是提升人力資本總量的一個重要途徑。在我國的現(xiàn)實情況下,研究人口與教育對經(jīng)濟增長的影響作用是有重要的理論和現(xiàn)實意義的。本文旨在分析我國人口、教育和經(jīng)濟增長之間互動關(guān)系的歷史和現(xiàn)狀,探討未來人口結(jié)構(gòu)變化和教育水平變化對經(jīng)濟的影響作用。為了研究人口、教育、經(jīng)濟之間的關(guān)系,本文基于系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的研究方法,繪制包含人口、教育、經(jīng)濟在內(nèi)的因果關(guān)系圖,并建立系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型,研究我國現(xiàn)在人口結(jié)構(gòu)與勞動力數(shù)量及未來30年的發(fā)展趨勢。通過控制兒童入學(xué)率和不同級別教育的升學(xué)率來分析各等級教育在校的學(xué)生人數(shù),進而得到我國人均受教育年限。利用人均受教育年限與勞動力人口數(shù)共同代表人力資本(即文中的勞動力教育資本),找到其與經(jīng)濟之間的關(guān)系。然后仿真實驗不同生育水平和不同升學(xué)率情況下的未來GDP發(fā)展趨勢及GDP增長率變化情況,發(fā)現(xiàn)人口增長和教育水平的提高對GDP增長速度都有一定的促進作用。最后根據(jù)仿真實驗結(jié)果提出相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of science and technology and the arrival of knowledge economy, our country put forward the strategy of "rejuvenating the country through science and education" at the end of last century. Knowledge has become another factor of production in society. Science and technology have been transformed into real productive forces, and the key factor to promote the development and function of science and technology is human. China's rapid population growth momentum has been effectively controlled, the total population growth rate decreased, but at the same time the proportion of the elderly population is also increasing, the proportion of labor force population began to decrease. Make our country enter the aging period of population prematurely, the population dividend will continue to decline or even disappear. In the economic growth, in addition to the input of material capital. Human capital also plays a very important role. And education can improve the skill level of labor force and improve labor productivity, which is an important way to improve the total amount of human capital. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of population and education on economic growth. This paper aims to analyze the history and current situation of the interaction among population, education and economic growth in China. In order to study the relationship among population, education and economy, this paper, based on the research method of system dynamics, draws the concept of population and education. The causality diagram of economy is included, and the system dynamics model is established. This paper studies the current population structure, the number of labor force and the development trend in the next 30 years. It analyzes the number of students in different levels of education by controlling the enrollment rate of children and the transition rate of different levels of education. Then we can get the average number of years of education in our country, the number of years of education and the number of labor force to represent the human capital (that is, the educational capital of labor force in this paper). Find out the relationship between it and the economy. Then simulate the future trend of GDP and the change of GDP growth rate under different fertility level and different transition rate. It is found that the increase of population and education level can promote the growth of GDP to some extent. Finally, according to the results of simulation experiment, the relevant policy suggestions are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：G40-054;F124

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本文編號：1421027