本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于ESDA的浙江省縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)空間關(guān)聯(lián)性研究　出處：《寧波大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 縣域經(jīng)濟(jì) 空間關(guān)聯(lián) ESDA 空間滯后模型

【摘要】：從資源稟賦來講，浙江可以說是“貧窮”的，但是經(jīng)過三十多年的發(fā)展浙江成為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)最發(fā)達(dá)的地區(qū)之一，縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)的貢獻(xiàn)是不容忽視的。在2012年中郡縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所評(píng)估的百強(qiáng)縣中，浙江獨(dú)占20席——縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)已成為浙江經(jīng)濟(jì)不可或缺的部分，是其快速發(fā)展的主要支撐和動(dòng)力來源。但是不同縣域之間經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的差異也是顯而易見的，關(guān)于浙江省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與區(qū)域協(xié)調(diào)的問題前人已做了很多研究，也提出相應(yīng)的對(duì)策建議，但是幾乎絕大部分學(xué)者都是在浙江省現(xiàn)有的既定的縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)空間格局情況下，，但事實(shí)上由于區(qū)域之間存在著擴(kuò)散和極化效應(yīng)，在區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的過程中，其獨(dú)立發(fā)展的理論假設(shè)前提是不存在的，區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展存在某種空間上的關(guān)聯(lián)性。本文以人均GDP作為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的衡量指標(biāo)，借助ESDA的研究方法，分階段研究了浙江省縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)空間關(guān)聯(lián)特征�；诿娴娜志垲悪z驗(yàn)表明全省范圍內(nèi)縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)分布改變了改革開放之初的分散狀態(tài)，整體關(guān)聯(lián)性不斷增強(qiáng)，表現(xiàn)為顯著的全局空間正相關(guān)。局部聚類檢驗(yàn)顯示伴隨全局關(guān)聯(lián)性增強(qiáng)的同時(shí)，浙江省縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)南北差異不斷擴(kuò)大，地區(qū)極化效應(yīng)顯著�；诓煌臻g關(guān)聯(lián)模式，對(duì)比OLS回歸分析以及引入了空間遲滯效應(yīng)的SAR回歸分析，旨在探尋影響縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主要因素。對(duì)比OLS回歸模型和SAR回歸模型的分析結(jié)果，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)浙江省縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)有明顯的空間滯后效應(yīng)，而且引入了空間滯后效應(yīng)的SAR模型提高了回歸方程的擬合效果。通過在不同時(shí)期、不同的空間模式下，SAR回歸結(jié)果表明人均資本存量、城市化水平、第二產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展、人均固定資產(chǎn)投資對(duì)浙江省縣域單元經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展長(zhǎng)期顯著，隨著產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整與升級(jí)、城市化水平提高，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展和勞動(dòng)力素質(zhì)的作用才逐漸顯現(xiàn)出來�；貧w結(jié)果還表明道路交通建設(shè)并不是影響浙江省縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵因素。隨著空間關(guān)聯(lián)性不斷增強(qiáng)，浙江縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的空間滯后效應(yīng)也在不斷增強(qiáng)。由于資本、知識(shí)勞動(dòng)力等流動(dòng)性大的因素在相鄰縣域間流動(dòng)較大，目標(biāo)縣域的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與城市職能建設(shè)能否吸引資本、人才流入的關(guān)鍵，成為決定縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)能否保持快速增長(zhǎng)的重要因素。
[Abstract]:In terms of resource endowment, Zhejiang can be said to be "poor", but after more than 30 years of development Zhejiang has become one of the most developed regions in China. The contribution of county economy can not be ignored. In middle of 2012, Zhejiang occupied 20 seats in the hundred strong counties assessed by County economy Research Institute, and county economy has become an indispensable part of Zhejiang economy. It is the main support and power source of its rapid development. But the difference of economic development level between different counties is also obvious. Many researches have been done on the problem of economic development and regional coordination in Zhejiang Province. Also put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, but almost most of the scholars are in the existing situation of the county economy spatial pattern in Zhejiang Province, but in fact, there are diffusion and polarization effects among the regions. In the process of regional economic development, the theoretical premise of its independent development is non-existent, and the development of regional economy has some spatial relevance. In this paper, GDP per capita is taken as the measure of economic development. With the help of the research method of ESDA, this paper studies the spatial correlation characteristics of county economy in Zhejiang Province in stages. The area-based global cluster test shows that the distribution of county economy in the province has changed the decentralized state at the beginning of reform and opening up. The overall correlation is increasing, showing significant global spatial positive correlation. Local cluster test shows that with the increase of overall relevance, the North-South difference of county economy in Zhejiang Province is expanding. Based on different spatial correlation models, OLS regression analysis and SAR regression analysis with spatial hysteresis effect were compared. By comparing the results of OLS regression model and SAR regression model, we find that the growth of county economy in Zhejiang Province has obvious spatial lag effect. In addition, the spatial lag effect of SAR model is introduced to improve the fitting effect of regression equation. The results show that the capital stock per capita and the level of urbanization are different in different periods and different spatial models. The development of the secondary industry and the per capita fixed asset investment have been significant to the county unit economy in Zhejiang Province for a long time. With the adjustment and upgrading of the industrial structure, the level of urbanization has increased. The effect of the development of tertiary industry and the quality of labor force appeared gradually. The regression result also showed that the road traffic construction is not the key factor to affect the development of county economy in Zhejiang Province. The spatial lag effect of Zhejiang county economic growth is also increasing. Due to the mobility of capital, knowledge labor and other factors in neighboring counties greater mobility. Whether the industrial structure of the target county and the construction of the city functions can attract capital and the inflow of talents has become an important factor to determine whether the county economy can maintain rapid growth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：寧波大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F127;F224

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