發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-07 18:24

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：河南省非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模測算研究　出處：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 河南省 非正式經(jīng)濟(jì) MIMIC模型 模糊邏輯法

【摘要】：非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)是政府干預(yù)市場的副產(chǎn)品,其在世界各國普遍存在,是一國總體經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要組成部分。 人們對非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)的研究由來已久.,特別是二十世紀(jì)六、七十年代,很多西方國家存在著經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑、高失業(yè)和高通脹并存的“滯漲”現(xiàn)象,當(dāng)時(shí)西方主流的經(jīng)濟(jì)理論卻無力解釋這種現(xiàn)象。在這種情況下,一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家嘗試著從非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)方面著手來解釋上述經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象。他們通過研究發(fā)現(xiàn)正是由于存在著政府部門監(jiān)管不到且不被統(tǒng)計(jì)體系所統(tǒng)計(jì)到的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng),使得現(xiàn)有的國民經(jīng)濟(jì)核算體系無法準(zhǔn)確的反應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的真實(shí)情況,使得經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率被低估和失業(yè)率被高估,從而導(dǎo)致傳統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)理論在解釋這種經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象時(shí)失靈。顯然,這一理論的出現(xiàn)無疑對“滯漲”.的研究提供了新思路。隨后,各國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家在這一領(lǐng)域不斷探索,創(chuàng)立了非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)理論及其測算方法體系。 自20世紀(jì)70年代以來,非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)在世界各國都有著驚人的發(fā)展,眾多學(xué)者對此也進(jìn)行了大量的研究,他們不僅根據(jù)各國的具體情況分析了各國非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,而且利用不同的方法對非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模進(jìn)行測算。比如,據(jù)有關(guān)專家測算,美國的“非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)”規(guī)模占美國GNP的4.4%-27%。美國2012年的GNP為156848億美元,以10%的規(guī)模計(jì)算,則美國的“非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)”規(guī)模達(dá)到15685億美元。 而就我國來說,由于我國是傳統(tǒng)的農(nóng)業(yè)大國,農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人口眾多,在加上統(tǒng)計(jì)體系還不是很完善,因此相應(yīng)的“非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)”活動(dòng)規(guī)模也就相對比較大。根據(jù)經(jīng)驗(yàn)觀察顯示,在我國農(nóng)村(含鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)),廣大農(nóng)戶、個(gè)體戶、失地農(nóng)民和鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)的日常經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)基本上是非正式的；在我國城市中,大量的“非正式企業(yè)”、個(gè)體戶、流動(dòng)農(nóng)民工、流動(dòng)攤販、失業(yè)下崗人員的日常經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng),主要也是以非正式的方式進(jìn)行；我們甚至還看到,一些正式企業(yè)也不時(shí)有相當(dāng)數(shù)量的非正式市場交易,一些有著正式就業(yè)職位的人,也不定期地參與“非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)”活動(dòng)。如此等等,不一而足。所有這些“非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)”活動(dòng)均難以被官方所統(tǒng)計(jì)到,即使有所統(tǒng)計(jì)也并不完備。 人們之所以對非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)如此關(guān)注,是因?yàn)榉钦浇?jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的迅速擴(kuò)大給社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來一系列的危害,造成稅收大量流失、政府收入減少,財(cái)政赤字加��；打亂社會(huì)資源的合理配置,使資源配置效率下降；導(dǎo)致政府統(tǒng)計(jì)出現(xiàn)偏差,造成經(jīng)濟(jì)信號(hào)失真,扭曲,引起政府宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)決策和企業(yè)或個(gè)人微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)決策的失誤；破壞正常的經(jīng)濟(jì)秩序,使社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系發(fā)生失調(diào)。 然而縱觀以往的研究,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)對非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)的研究主要集中在國家層面,大量的學(xué)者具體分析了影響一國非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的各種原因,并利用不同的方法測算一國非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的規(guī)模,而具體針對一個(gè)省份或地區(qū)的研究則很少。然而從省級(jí)層面來研究非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的影響因素及規(guī)模大小可以使地方行政部門對本地區(qū)非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)有一個(gè)更直觀具體的認(rèn)識(shí),可以根據(jù)本地的實(shí)際情況來采取具體措施來對非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)進(jìn)行治理。河南作為我國的人口大省、工業(yè)大省和農(nóng)業(yè)大省,不僅其經(jīng)濟(jì)總量高,而且各方面發(fā)展比較均衡,“非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)”在河南省的發(fā)展是比較活躍的,因此把河南省作為研究對象是比較有代表意義的。因此本文以河南省為例,通過MIMIC模型法和模糊邏輯法來測算河南省非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)的規(guī)模,使我們對河南省非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)有一個(gè)更直觀的認(rèn)識(shí)。 在對非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行研究中,其中一個(gè)難點(diǎn)就是對非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)至今在理論界尚未有一個(gè)統(tǒng)一的定義,定義的不同其所涉及到的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)也會(huì)有所不同,本文所要研究的“非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)”,采用Schneider, BuehnMontenegro(2010)對“非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)”的定義,包括由“非正式企業(yè)”與個(gè)體未登記、未申報(bào)或登記、申報(bào)不全,未納稅或納稅不全的情況下主要以現(xiàn)金交易方式所從事的經(jīng)營活動(dòng)。不包括涉黃販毒、走私、制售假冒偽劣商品等嚴(yán)重經(jīng)濟(jì)犯罪行為。通俗的講“非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)”就是其經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)是合法的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng),但其經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)有些是未被現(xiàn)有的統(tǒng)計(jì)體系所統(tǒng)計(jì)到,有些是參與其中的活動(dòng)者主觀的為了偷稅漏稅、逃避監(jiān)管而未被統(tǒng)計(jì)到。在此定義下來對河南省非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)進(jìn)行研究。 研究的另一個(gè)難點(diǎn)就是非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的測算,因?yàn)榉钦浇?jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的隱蔽性和其偷稅漏稅等特征,其不能被直接觀測得到,只能通過間接的手段來得到。由于非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的影響因素很多,很多測算其規(guī)模的方法主要是考慮其影響因素的某一個(gè)方面,且限制性條件比較多,因此得到的結(jié)果的準(zhǔn)確性可想而知。而多因素多指標(biāo)模型(MIMIC)本身所具有的特點(diǎn),可以將影響非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的眾多影響因素考慮進(jìn)去,從而得到的結(jié)果相對來說要好一些。因此在本文中我們使用多因素多指標(biāo)模型(MIMIC),選取稅收負(fù)擔(dān)、居民收入、失業(yè)率、自我就業(yè)率、政府管制作為原因變量,實(shí)際GDP增長率,勞動(dòng)力參與率作為結(jié)果變量,非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模作為潛變量,利用河南省1978年-2012年的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)來測算潛變量河南省非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模,接著我們采用模糊邏輯方法來估算非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)規(guī)模大小,從而從側(cè)面來驗(yàn)證MIMIC模型得到的結(jié)果。 本文分為五個(gè)章節(jié)來進(jìn)行寫作,第一章是緒論,主要內(nèi)容是文章的研究背景、研究意義、研究思路、研究內(nèi)容、研究方法和研究的創(chuàng)新與不足；第二章是文獻(xiàn)綜述,主要闡述了國內(nèi)外學(xué)者針對非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)所做的理論研究及對其規(guī)模的測算；第三章主要是針對本文所要研究的“非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)”活動(dòng)進(jìn)行界定,并選擇測算“非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)”活動(dòng)的方法；第四章是本文的實(shí)證部分,通過所搜集到的數(shù)據(jù),利用MIMIC法和模糊集合法來具體測算河南省非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)的規(guī)模大��；第五章是本文的政策建議部分,針對前文所研究的結(jié)論來針對性的提出治理河南省非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的政策建議。 本文研究的結(jié)論主要有以下幾個(gè)方面：第一,影響河南省非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的主要因素是稅收負(fù)擔(dān),居民收入和自我就業(yè)率。稅收負(fù)擔(dān)越重,人們從事非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的意愿越強(qiáng)烈,從而非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)規(guī)模越大；而居民收入越高,其參與非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的意愿就會(huì)降低,非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)規(guī)模也就會(huì)減��；自我就業(yè)率越高非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模也就相對越大。第二,1978年-2012年河南省非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模介于5%-25%之間,大致可以分為四個(gè)階段,第一階段,1978年-1984年非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模逐年降低；第二階段：1985年-1993年非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模開始逐年上升；第三階段：1994年-1999年河南省非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)又出現(xiàn)一個(gè)下降的趨勢潮；第四階段：2000年-2012年,在這十來年間非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模又出現(xiàn)逐步上升的趨勢。第三,通過模糊集合方法估算的非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)規(guī)模變動(dòng)趨勢與通過MIMIC方法測得的非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)規(guī)模變動(dòng)走勢基本相同,從而從側(cè)面印證了MIMIC方法得到結(jié)果的可靠性。 根據(jù)以上結(jié)論,本文從加強(qiáng)政府監(jiān)管,增加公民納稅意識(shí),完善統(tǒng)計(jì)制度等方面著手概括性的提出了治理非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的政策建議：第一,發(fā)揮政府調(diào)控者、監(jiān)管者的作用,制定合理的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策、提高政府效率、降低正式經(jīng)濟(jì)的進(jìn)入成本,使經(jīng)濟(jì)良好運(yùn)行；第二,加強(qiáng)監(jiān)管力度,提高非正式經(jīng)濟(jì)的運(yùn)行成本。第三,完善法律體系建設(shè)；第四,建立完善的稅收制度；第五,增加公民納稅意識(shí)；第六,完善統(tǒng)計(jì)制度。
[Abstract]:The informal economy is a by-product of the government's intervention in the market, which is common in all countries in the world and is an important part of the overall economy of a country.
Research on the informal economy's long-standing. Especially in twentieth Century, six, 70s, many western countries have the economic downturn, high unemployment and high inflation "stagflation" phenomenon, the western mainstream economic theory cannot explain this phenomenon. In this case, some economists try to explain the economic phenomenon from the informal economy. They through the study found that it is because of the existence of government supervision to and statistics are not system statistics to the economic activity, the real situation reflects economic activities make existing national economic accounting system can not accurately, the economic growth rate is underestimated and the unemployment rate is overvalued, which leads to the failure of traditional the economic theories to explain this economic phenomenon. Obviously, the emergence of this theory is the "stagflation". The study provides a new way of thinking with. After that, the economists in various countries have been exploring in this field, and established the informal economic theory and its calculation method system.
Since 1970s, informal economic activities have a striking development in the world, many scholars have done a lot of research, they not only according to the specific circumstances of the analysis of the development of national economy and informal, using different methods to calculate the size of the informal economy. For example, according to expert estimates, the United States "informal economy" scale accounted for U.S. GNP 4.4%-27%. us GNP in 2012 for $156848, with 10% of the scale of calculation, America's "informal economy" reached $15685.
In our country, because our country is a traditional agricultural country, the agricultural population is numerous, the statistics also add in system is not very perfect, so the corresponding "informal economy" the scale is relatively large. According to the empirical observation shows that, in China's rural areas (including township), the majority of farmers, the self-employed. Landless farmers and township enterprises in the daily economic activity basically is informal; in the city of our country, a large number of informal enterprises, self-employed, migrant workers, mobile vendors, daily economic activities of laid-off workers, mainly in the informal way; we even saw some formal informal enterprises a considerable number of market transactions, there are some formal jobs who did not regularly participate in "informal economic activities. So, this is not the only one. All of these" informal economy ". The movement is difficult to be officially counted, even if statistics are not complete.
The reason why people in the informal economy so much attention, because the informal economy is the rapid expansion of the scale of social economy to bring a series of hazards, resulting in a huge loss of tax revenue, government revenue, the fiscal deficit is increasing; the rational allocation of social resources to disrupt the resource allocation efficiency decreased; lead the government statistical deviation caused by economic signal distortion, distortion from the government of macroeconomic and microeconomic enterprise or individual decision-making mistakes; destroy the normal economic order, social economic relations disorder.
However, previous studies, we found that the research on the informal economy mainly focus on the national level, a large number of scholars have analyzed the factors affecting the informal economic activities of a country, and the use of different methods to measure the size of the informal economy activities of a country, and on a state or region. However, acupuncture is rarely to study the influence factors of informal economic activity from provincial level and scale to local administrative departments for informal local economic activities have a more intuitive understanding of the specific, can according to the local conditions to take concrete measures to governance of informal economic activity. Henan is China's most populous province, a large industrial province and a major agricultural province, not only the total economic output is high, and all aspects of balanced development, development of "informal economy" in Henan province is relatively active, Therefore, taking Henan Province as the research object is quite representative. Therefore, taking Henan Province as an example, we calculate the scale of Henan's informal economy by MIMIC model and fuzzy logic method, so that we have a more direct understanding of Henan's informal economic activities.
Study on the informal economy, which is one of the difficulties of the informal economy in the theoretical circle has not yet to have a unified definition, different definitions of the involved economic activities will be different, this paper is to study the "informal economy", by Schneider, BuehnMontenegro (2010) definition of "informal economy", including "informal enterprises and individuals without registration, or fails to declare the registration, reporting is not complete, no tax or tax is not the case with cash transactions in the operating activities. Not including the jurisprudence of drug trafficking, smuggling, selling counterfeit and shoddy goods and other serious economic crimes popular. The" informal economy "is the economic activity is legitimate economic activity, but its economic activity is not some statistical system of existing statistics, some of which are involved in the activities of the subjective Tax evasion, evasion of supervision and not being counted. This is a definition of informal economic activities in Henan.
Another difficulty is the study of the informal economic scale estimates, because the informal economic activities of the concealment and the characteristics of tax evasion, which cannot be directly observed, can only be obtained through indirect means. There are many factors that influence the informal economic activities, many estimates of its scale is the main method to consider the impact of a factors, and more restrictive conditions, so the accuracy of the results. As can be imagined and multi factor and multi index model (MIMIC) characteristics, can be affected by many factors influencing informal economic activities into consideration, so as to get the results relatively better. In this paper we use multi factor and multi index model (MIMIC), select the tax burden, income, unemployment, self employment, government regulation as the variable, the actual growth rate of GDP, labor Force participation rate as a result variable, the informal economy as latent variables to measure the informal economy latent variables in Henan province using related data of Henan province in 1978 -2012 years, then we use fuzzy logic method to estimate the size of informal economic activity, which from the side to verify the MIMIC model results.
This paper is divided into five chapters to writing, the first chapter is the introduction, the main content is the research background, the research significance, research ideas, research contents, research methods and innovations and deficiencies; the second chapter is literature review, mainly expounds the theoretical research of scholars at home and abroad for non formal economic activities and to measure the scale; the third chapter mainly focuses on the research of the "informal economy" is defined, and select the method to calculate the "informal economy" activities; the fourth chapter is the empirical part of this paper, through collecting the data, using the MIMIC method and the fuzzy set method to calculate the informal economy in Henan the size of the province; the fifth chapter is the policy suggestion part, according to the above research conclusion to put forward the policy of governance in Henan province informal economic activities.
The conclusions of this study are mainly the following aspects: first, the main influence factors of informal economic activity in Henan province is the tax burden, income and self employment rate. The heavier tax burden, people engaged in informal economic activities will more intense, and informal economic activity is larger; and higher income residents, their participation in informal economic activities will be reduced, informal economic activity scale will be reduced; the higher the rate of self employment of non formal economic scale is relatively larger. In second, Henan Province in 1978 -2012 informal economic scale ranged between 5%-25%, can be roughly divided into four stages, the first stage, 1978 -1984 informal economy year by year reduce; second stage: 1985 -1993 informal economy began to rise year by year; the third stage: 1994 -1999 in Henan province and the informal economy Present a downward trend and tide; the fourth phase: 2000 -2012 year, gradually rising trend appeared in this decade the informal economy scale. Third, through informal economic activity scale change trend estimation method of fuzzy set and informal by measured by MIMIC method of economic activity scale change trend is basically the same, so the reliability from the side confirm the MIMIC methods to get the results.
According to the above conclusions, this article from strengthen government supervision, increase the tax consciousness of the citizens, and improve the statistical system and other aspects briefly discussed informal economy governance policy suggestions: first, the role of government regulation, the role of the regulators, formulate economic policies, improve government efficiency, reduce the cost of entering the formal economy, make the economy good operation; second, strengthen supervision, improve the operation cost of the informal economy. Third, perfecting the legal system construction; fourth, establish and improve the tax system; fifth, improve citizen's consciousness of tax; sixth, improve the statistical system.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F127

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