本文關(guān)鍵詞：全面小康進程中的消費結(jié)構(gòu)變化與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整　出處：《湖南師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 消費結(jié)構(gòu) 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu) 優(yōu)化升級 預(yù)測 政策

【摘要】：消費結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化和升級不僅反映消費層次和質(zhì)量的提高,而且是建立合理產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)的重要依據(jù),同時對促進整個國民經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展也具有重要作用。我國正處于全面建成小康社會的重要時期,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)等方面面臨著調(diào)整和改革的壓力,只有根據(jù)消費結(jié)構(gòu)合乎規(guī)律的變化引導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和升級,才能實現(xiàn)有效供給的增長,才能實現(xiàn)社會經(jīng)濟的持續(xù)、快速增長。 本文從馬克思主義關(guān)于消費與生產(chǎn)的經(jīng)典理論出發(fā),從理論上論證了消費結(jié)構(gòu)與生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)具有同一性,生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)決定消費結(jié)構(gòu),消費結(jié)構(gòu)反作用于生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)。我國經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)實現(xiàn)由賣方市場向買方市場的轉(zhuǎn)變,市場消費需求已成為新興產(chǎn)業(yè)形成的基礎(chǔ),是產(chǎn)業(yè)升級的直接動因。消費結(jié)構(gòu)變動不僅決定了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的方向,同時也決定了經(jīng)濟增長的空間,對整個國民經(jīng)濟以及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)都起著舉足輕重的作用,因此消費結(jié)構(gòu)應(yīng)當(dāng)并且必須成為產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的基本驅(qū)動力量。同時,本文以消費結(jié)構(gòu)信息熵、固定資產(chǎn)投資額、就業(yè)人數(shù)、技術(shù)水平為因變量,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)系數(shù)為白變量建立回歸模型,實證分析得出消費結(jié)構(gòu)變動在諸多影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變量中是最為重要的正向因素,從理論和實證的角度得出了消費結(jié)構(gòu)能夠影響產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)應(yīng)該并且必須以消費結(jié)構(gòu)為導(dǎo)向來進行調(diào)整,才能從根本上解決買方市場上的供需矛盾。 接下來,本文通過消費結(jié)構(gòu)遞推預(yù)測模型,對2013年至2020年期間的各大類消費支出的具體數(shù)值進行了預(yù)測,分別預(yù)測了消費結(jié)構(gòu)八大類支出中各具代表性行業(yè)的變化趨勢。最后,文章指出要采取一定的措施對消費結(jié)構(gòu)進行調(diào)整,以期消費結(jié)構(gòu)能朝著我們預(yù)定的趨勢發(fā)展,在此基礎(chǔ)上通過產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)政策選擇,促進相關(guān)代表性行業(yè)的發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The optimization and upgrading of consumption structure not only reflects the improvement of consumption level and quality, but also is an important basis for the establishment of rational industrial structure and product structure. At the same time, it also plays an important role in promoting the stable and coordinated development of the whole national economy. China is in an important period of building a well-off society in an all-round way, and the industrial structure is facing the pressure of adjustment and reform. Only by guiding the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure according to the regular changes of consumption structure can we realize the growth of effective supply and realize the sustained and rapid growth of social economy. Based on the classical Marxist theory of consumption and production, this paper demonstrates theoretically that the consumption structure and the production structure are identical, and that the production structure determines the consumption structure. Consumption structure reacts on production structure. China's economy has been transformed from seller's market to buyer's market, and market consumption demand has become the basis for the formation of new industries. The change of consumption structure not only determines the direction of industrial structure adjustment, but also determines the space of economic growth, which plays an important role in the whole national economy and industrial structure. Therefore, the consumption structure should and must become the basic driving force of industrial structure adjustment. At the same time, this paper takes the consumption structure information entropy, fixed assets investment, employment population, technology level as the dependent variables. The coefficient of industrial structure is a white variable to establish a regression model. Empirical analysis shows that the change of consumption structure is the most important positive factor in many variables that affect the industrial structure. From the theoretical and empirical point of view, it is concluded that the consumption structure can affect the industrial structure, and the industrial structure should and must be adjusted in order to fundamentally solve the contradiction between supply and demand in the buyer's market. Then, through the recursive prediction model of consumption structure, this paper forecasts the specific values of various categories of consumer expenditure from 2013 to 2020. Finally, the article points out that certain measures should be taken to adjust the consumption structure. It is expected that the consumption structure can develop towards our predefined trend, and on this basis, it can promote the development of representative industries through the choice of industrial structure policies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F126.1;F121.3

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