本文關(guān)鍵詞：“一帶一路”倡議:預(yù)期管理、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避及戰(zhàn)略應(yīng)對(duì)　出處：《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)與政治論壇》2017年03期 　論文類型：期刊論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： “一帶一路”倡議 風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 國(guó)際秩序

【摘要】："一帶一路"倡議是新時(shí)期中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層統(tǒng)籌國(guó)內(nèi)發(fā)展和國(guó)際戰(zhàn)略的主要政策框架。本文旨在評(píng)估中國(guó)"一帶一路"倡議的預(yù)期收益,分析該倡議需持續(xù)關(guān)注的潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn),并進(jìn)一步提出中國(guó)的應(yīng)對(duì)方略。"一帶一路"作為一個(gè)多維政策框架,中國(guó)對(duì)其預(yù)期收益有四:第一,回應(yīng)"中國(guó)威脅論",提升中國(guó)的軟實(shí)力;第二,通過(guò)廣袤地域的經(jīng)濟(jì)整合,獲取中國(guó)持續(xù)崛起的動(dòng)力;第三,緩解美國(guó)海洋霸權(quán)對(duì)中國(guó)貿(mào)易和能源生命線的威脅,維護(hù)中國(guó)外交與戰(zhàn)略權(quán)益;第四,重建有利于中國(guó)國(guó)家利益和"支配地位"的區(qū)域秩序。筆者認(rèn)為,應(yīng)合理管理對(duì)"一帶一路"預(yù)期,防止高估該倡議的潛在收益,更不能低估該倡議所包含的政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)和安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。與之對(duì)應(yīng),中國(guó)應(yīng)從如下四個(gè)方面管理自身對(duì)倡議的預(yù)期及其現(xiàn)實(shí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn):悉心經(jīng)營(yíng)國(guó)家形象;嚴(yán)格依照經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)原理而非政治決斷建立和發(fā)展項(xiàng)目,防止過(guò)分戰(zhàn)略化傾向;降低其軍事與安全意涵,謹(jǐn)慎參與軍事和戰(zhàn)略活動(dòng);通過(guò)多邊框架徐圖修正令自己受益頗豐的制度。
[Abstract]:"Belt and Road Initiative" initiative is the main policy China leadership and domestic development and international strategy in the new era of the framework. This paper aims to evaluate the Chinese "The Belt and Road" initiative of the expected return, the initiative to analysis the potential risk of sustained attention, and further puts forward the strategy of Chinese. "The Belt and Road" as a multidimensional the policy framework, Chinese on the expected revenue has four: first, in response to "China threat", enhance the soft power of China; second, the economic integration of the vast region, to obtain power Chinese continued to rise; third, the United States to ease the marine hegemony on the threat Chinese trade and energy lifeline, China maintain diplomatic and strategic interests; fourth, is conducive to the interests of the state and the reconstruction of China "dominance" of the regional order. The author believes that the reasonable management of the The Belt and Road is expected to prevent the overestimation of potential benefits of the initiative, but can not underestimate the initiative The political, economic and security risks. Correspondingly, Chinese from the following four aspects to manage their expectations for the initiative and practical risk: careful management of national image; strictly in accordance with the principle of economics rather than a political decision to establish and develop the strategic project, to prevent excessive tendency; reduce its military and security implications, careful to participate in military through the multilateral framework and strategic activities; to make their own benefit the charts correcting system.

【作者單位】： 外交學(xué)院亞洲研究所;
【基金】：中國(guó)-東盟研究院“教育部長(zhǎng)江學(xué)者和創(chuàng)新團(tuán)隊(duì)發(fā)展計(jì)劃”(CW201416)的階段性成果
【分類號(hào)】：F125
【正文快照】： “絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶”和“21世紀(jì)海上絲綢之路”(以下統(tǒng)稱“一帶一路”倡議)是新時(shí)期中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層統(tǒng)籌國(guó)內(nèi)發(fā)展和國(guó)際戰(zhàn)略的主要政策框架。它代表了中國(guó)欲以其不斷壯大的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力、逐漸增多的政策工具、日漸豐盈的智識(shí)經(jīng)驗(yàn)整合周邊地區(qū),并進(jìn)一步重塑世界政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)版圖的努力。進(jìn)

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