發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-03 06:05

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國經(jīng)濟(jì)開放度與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系實(shí)證研究　出處：《云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 經(jīng)濟(jì)開放度 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長 協(xié)整理論 誤差修正模型 狀態(tài)空間模型

【摘要】：改革開放以來,遵循改革開放的政策方針，我國逐漸加大經(jīng)濟(jì)開放程度,加快經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整和升級,實(shí)現(xiàn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長。目前，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化進(jìn)程加速，我國與國際經(jīng)濟(jì)市場聯(lián)系越來越緊密，加大經(jīng)濟(jì)開放力度，，發(fā)展開放型經(jīng)濟(jì)仍將是我國長期內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略。一般認(rèn)為，對外經(jīng)濟(jì)開放促進(jìn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長，但這種促進(jìn)機(jī)制在長期內(nèi)是否均衡穩(wěn)定，在短期內(nèi)是如何變化，近年來的發(fā)展趨勢如何，對此研究甚少。實(shí)際上，受經(jīng)濟(jì)改革、各種各樣的外界沖擊和政策變化等不可觀測因素的影響，我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)正在逐漸發(fā)生變化，這在一定程度上會(huì)影響對外經(jīng)濟(jì)開放對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的拉動(dòng)作用。尤其近年來，服務(wù)貿(mào)易得到快速發(fā)展，其總額占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的比重逐年增大，并且對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的拉動(dòng)作用越來越明顯。因此，國內(nèi)外眾多學(xué)者基于C-D生產(chǎn)函數(shù)的索洛余值法，已不能完全反應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的全部動(dòng)因。本文在改進(jìn)研究方法的基礎(chǔ)上，通過實(shí)證分析深入探討我國經(jīng)濟(jì)開放度與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的關(guān)系,全文共包括以下四大部分。 第一部分主要介紹國內(nèi)外學(xué)者對經(jīng)濟(jì)開放度與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系的研究現(xiàn)狀，通過梳理國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)，了解經(jīng)濟(jì)開放度和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的涵義及其影響因素，對經(jīng)濟(jì)開放度與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間關(guān)系的理論基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)行深入研究。 第二部分主要是在1982-2011年我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與對外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上，結(jié)合我國的現(xiàn)狀，選取了貿(mào)易開放度、投資開放度、金融開放度、實(shí)際關(guān)稅率和服務(wù)開放度指標(biāo)度量我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)開放水平，并利用因子分析方法計(jì)算得出我國的總體經(jīng)濟(jì)開放度；接著對各度量指標(biāo)以及總體經(jīng)濟(jì)開放度進(jìn)行描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)分析，結(jié)果表明：除實(shí)際關(guān)稅率外，各指標(biāo)都呈現(xiàn)出上升趨勢，而實(shí)際關(guān)稅率作為度量經(jīng)濟(jì)開放度的反向指標(biāo)，則呈現(xiàn)出下降趨勢。 第三部分主要是建立模型對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)開放度與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。首先，應(yīng)用協(xié)整理論對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與經(jīng)濟(jì)開放度各度量指標(biāo)度建立協(xié)整回歸模型，結(jié)果表明：變量之間存在長期穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系，其中貿(mào)易開放度、投資開放度、金融開放度和服務(wù)開放度對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長存在正影響，而實(shí)際關(guān)稅率對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長存在負(fù)影響；其次，對我國總體經(jīng)濟(jì)開放度與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長做協(xié)整回歸，結(jié)果表明：在長期內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)開放度對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長具有穩(wěn)定的促進(jìn)作用；接著對我國總體經(jīng)濟(jì)開放度與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長建立誤差修正模型，結(jié)果顯示：短期內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)開放度對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的促進(jìn)作用會(huì)偏離長期水平，但反向誤差修正機(jī)制會(huì)將其逐漸拉回長期穩(wěn)定水平；最后引入狀態(tài)空間模型，將外界的不可觀測因素并入可觀測方程，從微觀上把握各指標(biāo)每一年對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的實(shí)際貢獻(xiàn)度，并動(dòng)態(tài)展示其發(fā)展趨勢，得出經(jīng)濟(jì)開放度對經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)具有預(yù)警機(jī)制的猜測。 最后，在以上實(shí)證分析結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)上得出結(jié)論，并結(jié)合我國實(shí)際情況提出四條建議：優(yōu)化對外貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)，促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長；加大對外投資力度，高效利用外資；擴(kuò)大金融開放程度，促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長；大力發(fā)展服務(wù)貿(mào)易，提升服務(wù)貿(mào)易國際競爭力。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, follow the policy of reform and opening up policy, China's increasing economic openness, accelerate economic restructuring and upgrading, to achieve a rapid economic growth. At present, the accelerating process of global economic integration, China's economy and international market more closely linked, greater economic openness, the development of the open economy will is China's long term economic development strategy. It is generally considered that foreign economic openness promotes economic growth, but the promoting mechanism in the long term equilibrium is stable, in the short term is how to change, how the development trend in recent years, there is very little research on it. In fact, affected by the economic reform, a variety of external shocks and policy the change of unobservable factors, China's economic structure is changing gradually, this will affect the economic opening up of China's economic growth to a certain extent Effect. Especially in recent years, the rapid development of service trade, the total proportion of GDP increased year by year, and the economic growth is more and more obvious. Therefore, many scholars at home and abroad based on C-D production function Solow residual value, has not completely against all motives of the economic growth. Based on the improvement of the methods, through empirical analysis of the relationship between China's economic openness and economic growth, the thesis includes the following four parts.
The first part mainly introduces the research status of domestic and foreign scholars on the relationship between economic openness and economic growth, through the relevant literature, understand the definition and influence factors of economic openness and economic growth, the theoretical foundation of the relationship between economic openness and economic growth are analyzed.
The second part is mainly on the 1982-2011 foundation for China's economic growth and foreign economic and trade data, combined with the current situation of our country, the trade openness, investment openness and financial openness, the degree of index to measure the economic level of our country open the actual tariff rates and services open, and the use of factor analysis calculated in China the overall economic opening method; then to the measurement index and the overall economic openness descriptive statistical analysis results showed that the actual tariff rate, the index showed a rising trend, while the actual tariff rate as a measure of the reverse index of economic opening, showing a downward trend.
The third part is to build the model of China's economic openness and economic growth empirical analysis. Firstly, the application of cointegration theory to China's economic growth and economic openness of the metrics to establish cointegration regression model. The results show that there is long-term stable equilibrium relationship between variables, the degree of openness. Investment openness, financial openness and Service Openness on economic growth have positive effects, while the actual tariff rate has a negative impact on economic growth; secondly, the opening of China's overall economy and economic growth cointegration regression, the results show that in the long term economic openness and economic growth has a stable role in promoting then the open; China's overall economic growth and establish the error correction model, results showed that: in the short term economic opening to promote economic growth will deviate from the long-term average, but The error correction mechanism will be gradually to the long-term stable level; finally introduce the state space model, the unobserved factors can be incorporated into the observation equation, from the microscopic to grasp each index each year to the economic growth of the actual contribution, and the dynamic display of the development trend of the economic openness and economic crisis warning the mechanism of speculation.
Finally, in the above empirical analysis based on the results of the conclusion, and put forward four suggestions to China's actual situation, optimize the foreign trade structure, promote economic growth; increase foreign investment, efficient use of foreign capital; expand financial openness, promote economic growth; vigorously develop the service trade, enhance the international competitiveness of service trade.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F124;F224

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