本文關鍵詞：服務業(yè)FDI對我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構升級的影響分析　出處：《西南財經(jīng)大學》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

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【摘要】：服務業(yè)是近年來世界上增長最快的產(chǎn)業(yè),被譽為產(chǎn)業(yè)和市場發(fā)展的“黏合劑”。作為衡量區(qū)域經(jīng)濟繁榮程度的重要標志之一,服務業(yè)發(fā)展也逐漸受到各國重視,特別是步入21世紀后,在全球范圍內,服務業(yè)外商直接投資快速增長,以服務業(yè)FDI為核心的外商直接投資,正逐步成長為我國和世界經(jīng)濟體系中調整升級產(chǎn)業(yè)結構和促進區(qū)域經(jīng)濟繁榮的重要力量,且日益深刻地改變著世界各國經(jīng)濟、產(chǎn)業(yè)、技術的發(fā)展模式。 2012年中國實際使用外資(FDI)金額1117.2億美元,連續(xù)20年成為利用外資最多的發(fā)展中國家。正是由于長期堅持引進外資,我國逐步實現(xiàn)了農業(yè)大國向工業(yè)大國的轉變。在很長一段時期,制造業(yè)FDI一直是我國外資引入領域的重點。2001年隨著正式加入世貿組織,我國邁出了逐漸開放服務市場的步伐,服務業(yè)FDI也開始快速成長起來,成為我國FDI的重要組成部分,外商直接投資在服務領域的金額日益增多,由1997年的119億美元左右,增長到2012年的572億美元,15年時間里增長了近5倍。2011年我國服務業(yè)FDI比重占到了實際利用外資總額的50%以上,服務業(yè)FDI整體比重首次超過制造業(yè)。 與此同時,改革開放30多年來,中國的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展取得了舉世矚目的成就,實現(xiàn)了多年的兩位數(shù)發(fā)展,人民生活有了較大改善,國內生產(chǎn)總值2013年達到了56.9萬億元,貿易進出口總額達到了4萬億美元,位居全球第一。但輝煌的總量并未掩蓋經(jīng)濟結構的日益失衡,傳統(tǒng)資源消耗的高能低產(chǎn)依舊未徹底改變,中國作為一個發(fā)展中的大國,工業(yè)化已經(jīng)步入到中后期,但依舊有大量勞動力滯留于傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)；大工業(yè)發(fā)展雖然總量上較為突出,但內部結構依舊較為單一,科技含量相對于西方發(fā)達國家也存在一定差距；在新興服務業(yè)領域,由于起步較晚,伴隨著勞動力成本日益上升、人口紅利快速削減,矛盾也日益突出。只有實現(xiàn)國內產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的升級轉變,只有徹底的調整經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式,才能實現(xiàn)未來國家的可持續(xù)性增長。由于外資往往擁有較為先進的經(jīng)驗和技術,加上資本優(yōu)勢,FDI的流入為推動我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的升級轉變提供了可能。 我國作為全球最重要的發(fā)展中國家,隨著對外開放步伐的加快和國內經(jīng)濟的飛速發(fā)展,如何在國際產(chǎn)業(yè)轉移浪潮中合理的利用外資,并實現(xiàn)我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的升級轉變,是當前一個迫在眉睫的問題。事實上,國家也已經(jīng)把這種認識上升到了戰(zhàn)略層面。2011年由發(fā)改委和商務部聯(lián)合下發(fā)的《外商投資產(chǎn)業(yè)指導目錄(2011年修訂)》首次提出了“要以完善和升級產(chǎn)業(yè)結構,加快轉變生產(chǎn)方式為主題來合理引進相關外資,在對外開放過程中,要做到內外統(tǒng)籌兼顧,以外資來補充和優(yōu)化我國各項產(chǎn)業(yè)結構,并著力推進外資在提升我國科技水平、促進產(chǎn)業(yè)轉型方面發(fā)揮重大作用”；我國“十二五”規(guī)劃要求,“在對外開放引進外資中,要進一步提升外資的利用水平,并以外促內,由表及里,逐步優(yōu)化我國的產(chǎn)業(yè)結構發(fā)展方式,進而實現(xiàn)在未來的國際競爭和合作的更高層次上贏得話語權,獲得行業(yè)主導地位”。因此可以預計,在服務業(yè)占整個國民經(jīng)濟比重日趨提高的背景下,占外商直接投資絕大多數(shù)份額的服務業(yè)FDI勢必對中國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構升級產(chǎn)生重要影響。因此本文從服務業(yè)著手,研究服務業(yè)FDI對我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構升級的作用機制具有一定的現(xiàn)實意義。 全文共分為6個章節(jié),基本研究思路為：梳理相關理論并對國內外研究現(xiàn)狀進行評述,進而提出本文研究的著眼點,接著分析中國利用服務業(yè)FDI發(fā)展概況及產(chǎn)業(yè)結構發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,在此基礎上提出服務業(yè)FDI的產(chǎn)業(yè)結構升級效應,然后進行服務業(yè)FDI對我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構升級影響的實證研究,其中包括服務業(yè)FDI對我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構升級的經(jīng)濟關聯(lián)效應和沖擊效應兩部分,最后本文依據(jù)研究結論,提出相應的對策建議。 第1章為導言。這一章既是本文的總綱,也是為深入理解本文研究的意圖、架構和內容的一份說明。包括選題背景與意義、重要概念的界定、研究內容、研究方法、可能的創(chuàng)新點以及研究的不足。 第2章為理論基礎和文獻綜述。在這一章中,筆者梳理了國際直接投資理論在服務業(yè)的適用性、產(chǎn)業(yè)結構升級理論、外商直接投資與產(chǎn)業(yè)結構升級之間關系的理論,對國內外有關服務業(yè)FDI的經(jīng)濟效應、福利效應、技術進步效應以及產(chǎn)業(yè)結構效應研究的主要成就和欠缺進行了總結。 第3章為服務業(yè)FDI的發(fā)展概況分析。本章首先分析了全球服務業(yè)FDI的總體發(fā)展概況,接著介紹了中國利用服務業(yè)FDI發(fā)展概況,通過系統(tǒng)性的分析發(fā)現(xiàn)：中國服務業(yè)FDI流入在波動中上升,服務業(yè)FDI內部行業(yè)分布不均衡,服務業(yè)利用FDI呈現(xiàn)出政策性階段特征。 第4章為產(chǎn)業(yè)結構發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及服務業(yè)FDI的產(chǎn)業(yè)結構升級效應分析。通過對全球及我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構現(xiàn)狀分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)當前我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構發(fā)展中存在的突出問題表現(xiàn)在,產(chǎn)業(yè)間結構不均衡,產(chǎn)業(yè)內部構成不均衡,區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)結構發(fā)展不均衡。通過分析得出,服務業(yè)FDI的產(chǎn)業(yè)結構升級效應體現(xiàn)在服務業(yè)FDI的技術溢出與管理示范效應、“隱性”效應、環(huán)境效應、傳導效應四個方面。 第5章為服務業(yè)FDI對我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構升級影響的實證研究。主要分為兩個部分：服務業(yè)FDI對我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構升級的經(jīng)濟關聯(lián)效應研究以及服務業(yè)FDI對我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構升級的沖擊效應研究。前一部分采用灰色關聯(lián)度分析方法分析服務業(yè)FDI對我國經(jīng)濟總量以及三次產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值結構間的關聯(lián)效應。后一部分運用多指標綜合分析方法,通過分析三次產(chǎn)業(yè)利用服務業(yè)FDI對各自增加值、就業(yè)以及全員勞動生產(chǎn)率的影響,揭示服務業(yè)FDI對我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構升級的沖擊影響。具體采用的實證方法為向量自回歸模型(VAR模型)、格蘭杰因果檢驗,以及脈沖響應函數(shù)和方差分解等方法。 第6章為結論和建議。通過實證研究,本文主要得到以下結論：1.服務業(yè)FDI對我國三次產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值的增長具有不均等的貢獻,對第一產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的貢獻優(yōu)于第二產(chǎn)業(yè)；2.服務業(yè)FDI對我國就業(yè)結構的優(yōu)化具有促進作用；3.服務業(yè)FDI顯著促進了我國全員勞動生產(chǎn)率的提升；4.服務業(yè)FDI對我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構升級影響的短期效應較為明顯；5.服務業(yè)FDI對我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構升級的影響不具有逆向傳導性。據(jù)此提出了對策建議：1.推動服務業(yè)市場化進程,探索服務業(yè)FDI循環(huán)傳導機制；2.改造升級傳統(tǒng)服務業(yè),探索服務產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的中國模式；3.合理引導服務業(yè)FDI流向,著力打造第二產(chǎn)業(yè)配套服務業(yè)；4.加強智力資本投入和完善基礎實施建設,增強FDI的長期效益；5.依據(jù)國家產(chǎn)業(yè)政策,因地制宜選擇服務業(yè)FDI。 本文可能的創(chuàng)新體現(xiàn)在以下幾點： 在研究視角上,本文結合當前我國發(fā)展實際,將整個研究范疇限定在服務業(yè)領域,具有一定的針對性。通過對相關文獻的梳理,筆者發(fā)現(xiàn)學術界對于傳統(tǒng)外商直接投資影響的研究,主要集中在制造業(yè)領域,而對于服務業(yè)FDI的關注相對較少。發(fā)達國家的發(fā)展經(jīng)歷表明,一個成熟的經(jīng)濟體,服務業(yè)是三次產(chǎn)業(yè)中占比最高、潛力也最大的產(chǎn)業(yè),并且就我國而言,近兩年實際利用外商投資總額中服務業(yè)FDI已經(jīng)占據(jù)主導地位,因此,本文將研究對象聚焦于服務業(yè),研究服務業(yè)FDI與我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結構調整升級之間相互作用關系及影響是一個比較新的視角。 在研究內容上,本文將宏觀分析與微觀論證相結合,并突出了研究的微觀特征。以往研究服務業(yè)FDI與產(chǎn)業(yè)結構關系的相關文獻,研究者多把重心放在分析服務業(yè)FDI與宏觀經(jīng)濟增長以及服務業(yè)FDI與三次產(chǎn)業(yè)間結構變化等領域,忽視了服務業(yè)FDI對三次產(chǎn)業(yè)內部結構變遷影響的研究�；诖�,本文在研究內容上,淡化了對服務業(yè)FDI的宏觀分析,而把較多的筆墨用于分析服務業(yè)FDI對我國三次產(chǎn)業(yè)內部結構升級變遷的影響。因而,能夠更立體的反映出我國服務業(yè)FDI的產(chǎn)業(yè)結構效應。 在研究方法上,本文注重交互分析,并突出了指標的逆向影響特征。在研究FDI與產(chǎn)業(yè)結構關系的文獻中,多數(shù)學者僅僅分析了FDI對于產(chǎn)業(yè)結構變遷的影響,而忽視了分析產(chǎn)業(yè)結構變遷對于FDI的影響,因此本文在研究過程中,運用灰色關聯(lián)法和向量自回歸方法,重點分析了各期產(chǎn)業(yè)結構相關變量變動后,對我國服務業(yè)FDI的變動影響,并在此基礎上深入探討了在我國利用服務業(yè)FDI的過程中,如何在現(xiàn)有基礎上實現(xiàn)服務業(yè)FDI與產(chǎn)業(yè)結構升級之間一種相互影響、互為促進、共同進化、效用最大化的局面。
[Abstract]:The service industry in recent years is the world's fastest growing industry, known as the industry and the market development of the "glue". As one of the important symbol to measure the level of regional economic prosperity, the development of service industry is gradually valued by many countries, especially after twenty-first Century, in the global scope, the rapid growth of foreign direct investment in the service industry. FDI in services industry as the core of foreign direct investment, is gradually becoming an important force for the upgrading of the industrial structure adjustment of our country and the world economic system and promote regional economic prosperity, and has profoundly changed the world economy, industry, technology development pattern.
In 2012 China the actual use of foreign investment (FDI) the amount of $111 billion 720 million, for 20 consecutive years to become the largest developing country. The use of foreign capital is due to long-term adherence to the introduction of foreign capital, China has gradually realized the transformation of agricultural country to industrial countries. In a very long period of time, the manufacturing FDI has been the focus of our foreign investment into the field of.2001 as the year officially joined the WTO, China has gradually open service market, FDI in service industry began to grow up fast, become an important part of China's FDI, foreign direct investment in the service sector amount increasing by around $11 billion 900 million in 1997, increased to $57 billion 200 million in 2012, 15 years an increase of nearly 5 times.2011 years of China's service industry the proportion of FDI accounted for more than 50% of the total actual use of foreign capital, the service industry accounted for more than FDI overall manufacturing industry for the first time.
At the same time, 30 years of reform and opening up, China economic development has made remarkable achievements, achieved two digit years of development, people's lives have been greatly improved, in 2013 GDP reached 56 trillion and 900 billion yuan, the total import and export trade reached $4 trillion, ranked first in the world. But the glorious total did not cover the economic structure the growing imbalance of high-energy low traditional resource consumption is still not completely changed, China as a developing country, industrialization has entered into the late, but still there are a lot of workers remaining in the traditional industry; industrial development is more prominent while the total, but the internal structure is still relatively simple, there are some differences between the western science and technology content compared with the developed countries; in the emerging service sector, due to a late start, along with rising labor costs, rapid population bonus cuts, spear The shield has become increasingly prominent. Only to realize the transformation of the domestic industry structure upgrade, only a thorough adjustment of the mode of economic development, in order to achieve a sustainable future growth. Because the foreign countries tend to have more experience and advanced technology and capital advantage, the inflow of FDI provides the possibility to promote the transformation of China's industrial structure upgrading.
China is the world's most important developing countries, with the rapid development of opening up and accelerate the pace of the domestic economy, how to reasonable utilization of foreign capital in the international industrial transfer tide, and to realize the transformation of China's industrial structure upgrading, is an imminent problem. In fact, the country has put this up the strategic level.2011 by the NDRC and the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Industrial Catalog for foreign investment (revised in 2011) > first proposed to improve and upgrade the industrial structure, accelerate the transformation of the mode of production as the theme to the introduction of relevant foreign investment, in the opening process, to achieve internal and external balanced, to foreign capital to supplement and the optimization of our industrial structure, and efforts to promote foreign investment in the upgrading of China's science and technology level, play a major role in promoting industrial transformation"; "China 12th Five-Year" plan Asked, "at the opening of the introduction of foreign capital, to further enhance the level of utilization of foreign capital, and promote, and gradually optimize the development way from the outside to the inside, the industrial structure of our country, and to win the right to speak at a higher level in the future international competition and cooperation, industry dominant position. Therefore it can be expected in the the service industry accounted for the entire national economy proportion is rising under the background of foreign direct investment accounted for the majority share of the service industry is bound to the FDI Chinese the upgrading of the industrial structure have an important impact. Therefore, this article will start from the service industry, the service industry FDI has certain practical significance on the mechanism of our country's industrial structure upgrading.
The thesis is divided into 6 chapters, the basic research ideas: Theory and reviewed the research status at home and abroad, and then put forward the starting point of this research, then analyze China services utilization of FDI development status quo and development of industrial structure, on the basis of the effect of industrial structure upgrading of service industry FDI, empirical research then the effect of FDI in service industry to upgrade the industrial structure of our country, including FDI in service industry on economic effect of our country's industrial structure upgrading and the impact of the two part, the conclusion on the basis of the research, puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.
The first chapter is the introduction. This chapter is the general principles, but also for understanding the intent of this study, structure and content of a note. Including the background and significance of the topic, the definition of important concepts, research contents, research methods and possible lack of innovation and research.
The second chapter is the theoretical basis and literature review. In this chapter, the author reviews the applicability of the theory of international direct investment in the service industry, the theory of upgrading the industrial structure, the relationship between foreign direct investment and the upgrading of the industrial structure theory, to the domestic and foreign related services FDI economic effect, welfare effect, technical achievements progress effect and industrial structure effect and the lack of research are summarized.
The third chapter is the analysis of the development of service industry FDI. This chapter first analyzes the overall development of the global service industry FDI, then introduces the development of FDI service industry by Chinese, through systematic analysis found: China services FDI inflows rose in the wave, the service industry in the FDI Department of industry distribution, service the use of FDI industry presents the stage of policy.
The fourth chapter is the analysis of the effect of industrial structure development and service industry upgrade of FDI. Through the analysis of the global and China's current industrial structure, found the existing problems of the industrial structure of our country in the development of performance in the industrial structure is not balanced, unbalanced development of industrial structure, regional industrial structure is not balanced by. Analysis of the industrial structure, service industry upgrade of FDI reflects the effect of Technology Spillover and management demonstration effect in service industry FDI, the "hidden" effect, environmental effect, the four aspects of the transmission effect.
The fifth chapter is the empirical research on the impact of FDI services on the upgrading of China's industrial structure. Mainly divided into two parts: the study of FDI in service industry to research the economic linkage effect of our country's industrial structure upgrading and service FDI impact effect to our country's industrial structure upgrading. The first part of analysis of FDI in service industry the total amount of China's economy and the correlation effect of the output value structure of three times industry. By using the grey part by using multi index comprehensive analysis method, through the analysis of the three industrial use of FDI in service industry on their added value, effect of employment and labor productivity, to reveal the effect of FDI in service industry on the impact of China's industrial structure upgrading. The specific use of empirical methods for vector autoregressive model (VAR model), Grainger causality test and impulse response function and variance decomposition method.
The sixth chapter is the conclusion and suggestion. Through the empirical research, the main conclusions are as follows: 1. FDI in service industry has not equal contribution to China's three industry output growth, contribution to the first and third industry than the second industry; 2. FDI in service industry has a role in promoting the optimization of employment structure in our country; 3. the service industry FDI significantly promoted the upgrading of China's labor productivity; the short-term effects of 4. FDI in service industry of our country's industrial structure upgrading is more obvious; 5. FDI in service industry does not have adverse effect on conductivity of our country's industrial structure upgrading. And puts forward countermeasures and suggestions: 1. to promote the service industry marketization, exploration FDI the transmission mechanism of circulation service industry; 2. upgrade traditional service industry, explore the service industry development Chinese mode; 3. reasonable guide services to FDI, efforts to build second industrial supporting services; 4. Strengthening the investment of intellectual capital and perfecting the construction of basic implementation, strengthening the long-term benefit of FDI; 5. selecting service industry according to the national industrial policy and local conditions, FDI.
The possible innovations in this paper are reflected in the following points:
In the research perspective, combined with the current development of our country's actual, the research scope defined in the service sector, has a certain relevance. Based on the related literature, the research of the effect of foreign direct investment in academic circles, the author found, mainly concentrated in the manufacturing field, and for the service industry to the attention of the FDI relatively small. Developed countries experience shows that a mature economy, service industry is more than three industries accounted for the highest potential, is also the largest industry, and in our country, in recent years the actual use of foreign investment in the service industry FDI has been dominant, therefore, this dissertation focuses on the service industry, the service industry between FDI and China's industrial structure adjustment and upgrade the interaction and influence is a relatively new perspective.
In the research content, this paper will demonstrate the combination of macro analysis and micro, and highlights the characteristics of micro research. A review of the relationship between the previous research of FDI in service industry and industrial structure, many researchers focus on the analysis of FDI in service industry and economic growth as well as FDI in service industry and three industrial structure change etc. study, ignoring the effect of FDI in service industry on the three industry internal structure change. Based on this, this article on the research content, dilute the macro analysis of FDI in service industry, and put more ink used to analyze the effects of changes in the internal structure of the service industry to upgrade the FDI of China's three industries. Therefore, more stereo reflect the effect of industrial structure of China's service industry FDI.
In research methods, this paper focuses on interaction analysis, and highlights the adverse impact characteristics. In the study on the relationship between FDI and industrial structure in the literature, most scholars only analyzed the influence of FDI on the industrial structure changes, while ignoring the change of industrial structure analysis for the impact of FDI, so in the course of the study, the use of the grey correlation method and vector auto regression method, focuses on the analysis of the related variables of the industrial structure changes, changes on China's service industry FDI, and on this basis in the process of using FDI service industry of our country, how to realize the service industry between FDI and the upgrading of the industrial structure in a mutual influence on the basis of the existing mutual promotion and common evolution, maximize the effectiveness of the situation.

【學位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.6;F719;F121.3

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