本文關鍵詞：美聯(lián)儲量化寬松政策對美國宏觀經濟的影響研究　出處：《山東大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 量化寬松 大規(guī)模資產購買 SVAR模型

【摘要】：美聯(lián)儲的量化寬松政策從2008年11月開始到目前已進行了四輪,并一直強調在合適時機針對金融市場和宏觀經濟的狀況逐漸退出量化寬松政策。對美聯(lián)儲量化寬松政策的推出背景、實施過程、傳導機制和影響的了解,能夠豐富對非常規(guī)貨幣政策的認識,為將來可能出現(xiàn)的類似情形提供貨幣政策參考。 目前,大多學者認為量化寬松政策對金融市場有著較為積極的影響,實現(xiàn)了其穩(wěn)定金融體系的政策目標,而在對宏觀經濟的影響上還存在分歧。因此,在認識短期名義利率較低水平下美聯(lián)儲量化寬松政策的現(xiàn)狀基礎上,進一步研究其對宏觀經濟帶來的影響,有助于明確量化寬松政策的有效性和局限性。 本文希望通過闡述美聯(lián)儲推出量化寬松的政策目標、政策工具和傳導機制來了解面對零利率情況下采取的量化寬松政策,通過構建結構向量自回歸(SVAR)模型來分析美聯(lián)儲的量化寬松政策對美國宏觀經濟的影響。 本文的主要結論是：短期名義利率和貨幣供給對物價穩(wěn)定有較好的政策效果,但對于經濟增長和勞動力市場的政策效果則表現(xiàn)一般,經濟增長增速緩慢,失業(yè)率增加；相比較短期名義利率沖擊,貨幣供給沖擊對宏觀經濟指標波動的解釋力較弱,量化寬松政策對宏觀經濟的調控需要在零基準利率遠期指導的配合下發(fā)揮作用；此外,宏觀經濟指標波動對貨幣政策中介變量沖擊的敏感度不同,其中通貨膨脹目標能夠比較好地反映出量化寬松政策的效果,相對于失業(yè)率目標,通貨膨脹的變動能夠向貨幣當局傳遞比較明顯的貨幣政策調整信號。 本文的結構如下：第一部分為引言,主要闡述選題背景、意義、研究方法、創(chuàng)新點以及難點等；第二部分為文獻回顧,對已有的相關國內外文獻進行綜述,將政策影響從傳導機制和作用對象兩個角度進行闡述；第三部分為現(xiàn)狀介紹,對美聯(lián)儲實施量化寬松政策的背景、推出過程以及退出和影響進行概述；第四部分是SVAR模型構建、變量的選取與說明、數(shù)據(jù)來源及處理；第五部分是實證分析,基于模型識別進行變量之間的靜態(tài)分析,并借助脈沖響應圖和方差分解分析貨幣政策沖擊對相關變量波動的動態(tài)分析；最后是結論與啟示。
[Abstract]:The Fed's quantitative easing policy started to now have been four rounds from November 2008, and has been emphasized in the appropriate time for the financial market and macroeconomic situation gradually withdraw from the quantitative easing policy. The Fed's quantitative easing policy to introduce the background, implementation process, transmission mechanism and effect of understanding, to enrich the understanding of unconventional monetary the policy of monetary policy, to provide reference for the similar situation may arise in the future.
At present, most scholars believe that the quantitative easing policy has a positive impact on the financial market, realize the stability of the financial system and policy objectives, in the macroeconomic impact on the differences still exist. Therefore, in the understanding of short-term nominal interest rates at a low level under the Fed's quantitative easing policy based on the present situation, further study on the impact of on the macro economy, effectiveness and limitation to help clear the quantitative easing policy.
This paper hopes to launch quantitative easing policy objectives through the elaboration of the Fed policy instruments and transmission mechanism to understand the quantitative conditions take the face of the zero interest rate easing, by constructing a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to analyze the impact of the Fed's quantitative easing policy of the United States economy.
The main conclusions of this paper are: the short-term nominal interest rate and the money supply has a good effect on the policy of price stability, but for economic growth and labor market policies are in general, slow growth in economic growth, the unemployment rate increased; compared the short-term nominal interest rate shocks, explain the weak currency supply shocks on macroeconomic volatility index. The regulation of the quantitative easing policy on macroeconomic needs with the guidance of the benchmark interest rate at zero forward role; in addition, macroeconomic index fluctuations on the impact of monetary policy intermediary variables have different sensitivity, the inflation target can better reflect the effectiveness of quantitative easing, the unemployment rate relative to the target, the fluctuation of inflation to transfer money the policy adjustment significant signals to the monetary authorities.
This paper is structured as follows: the first part is the introduction, mainly elaborated the background, significance, research methods, innovations and difficulties; the second part is literature review of related literature at home and abroad has been reviewed, the policy will affect the conduction mechanism from two aspects and the role of the object are elaborated; the third part is the present situation, the implementation of quantitative easing the Fed's background, launch process and exit and influence are outlined; the fourth part is the construction of SVAR model, variable selection and description, data sources and processing; the fifth part is the empirical analysis, the model identification based on static analysis between variables, and using the pulse decomposition analysis of the impact of monetary policy on dynamic analysis the response variable fluctuation map and variance; the last is the conclusion and enlightenment.

【學位授予單位】：山東大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F171.2;F827.12

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本文編號：1359382