本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國收入流動性變動趨勢及影響因素的實證研究　出處：《南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 收入差距 收入流動性 聚類分析 Logistic模型

【摘要】：改革開放30多年來,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長,成為世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體,然而,居民收入增長的步伐仍趕不上經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的速度,同時也成為全球兩極分化最嚴(yán)重的國家之一,收入分配己經(jīng)到了極不公平的程度。有學(xué)者認(rèn)為,如果收入流動性較大,前一時期收入較低的居民在下一時期可能進(jìn)入較高的收入等級,而前一時期收入較高的居民下一時期也有可能進(jìn)入較低的收入等級,那么,長期的收入不平等可能會小于短期的收入不平等,中國社會就可以通過促進(jìn)機(jī)會平等,加大收入流動性來達(dá)到緩解長期收入差距過大的問題。本文通過對不同時間間隔的收入轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣、基于五等分法相同時間間隔的收入轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣以及基于K均值聚類相同時間間隔的收入轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣進(jìn)行了分析,定義并且計算得到收入流動性指數(shù)和收入流動方向指數(shù),進(jìn)而實證分析了我國收入流動性的變動趨勢,然后以收入位置變化為被解釋變量,建立Logistic模型,對居民的初始收入等級、年齡、性別、受教育程度、職業(yè)類型以及地區(qū)等變量進(jìn)行了收入流動影響因素的分析,最后為緩解我國居民收入差距過大提出了一些可操作的對策建議。具體結(jié)論如下：長期中收入流動性比短期中更大,因此長期中的收入差距要小于短期的收入差距。采用五等分法得到相同時間間隔的轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣各元素值較為均等,結(jié)果表明低收入組和高收入組的不流動概率隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展逐漸上升,中等收入者呈現(xiàn)出波動狀態(tài),且總體概率值偏低。采用聚類分析法得到的相同時間間隔的轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣中低收入組元素較大,中高收入組較小,甚至為零。結(jié)果表明低收入者、中低收入者和中等收入者的不流動概率雖然有波動,但整體是呈現(xiàn)一個明顯的上升趨勢。收入流動性指數(shù)隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有明顯的下降趨勢,這一點兩種方法的結(jié)果一致。但是,聚類分析的收入流動性指數(shù)總體比五等分法的收入流動性指數(shù)要小。由此可以看出我國的收入差距較大,且這種差距隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展在逐漸擴(kuò)大。收入流動方向指數(shù)在大多數(shù)時期小于1,說明收入大多是向下流動,居民整體福利是下降的。通過分別對城市和農(nóng)村居民進(jìn)行研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)城市居民收入流動性指數(shù)總體上大于農(nóng)村居民,說明城市居民收入更富有流動性,但是,城市居民的收入流動方向主要是向下流動。農(nóng)村居民收入的流動性較差,但是,農(nóng)村居民的收入流動方向主要是向上流動。對收入流動性影響因素的分析結(jié)果表明,居民初始收入等級、受教育程度以及地區(qū)因素對收入流動性有顯著的影響,而性別、年齡以及職業(yè)類型只對部分人影響顯著。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up more than 30 years ago, China's economy has grown rapidly and become the second largest economy in the world. However, the pace of income growth of residents is still not keeping up with the pace of economic development. At the same time, it has become one of the most polarized countries in the world, and the income distribution has reached a very unfair degree. Some scholars believe that if the income mobility is greater. Residents with lower incomes in the previous period may enter a higher income level in the next period, and residents with higher incomes in the previous period may also enter a lower income level in the next period. Long-term income inequality may be smaller than short-term income inequality, and Chinese society can promote equal opportunities. Increase income mobility to alleviate the problem of excessive income gap. This paper through different time interval income transfer matrix. The income transfer matrix with the same time interval and the income transfer matrix with the same time interval based on K-means clustering are analyzed. This paper defines and calculates the income liquidity index and the income flow direction index, and then empirically analyzes the change trend of income liquidity in China, and then takes the change of income position as the explanatory variable. Logistic model was established to analyze the influencing factors of income flow in residents' initial income grade, age, sex, education level, occupation type and area. Finally, in order to alleviate the excessive income gap of residents in China, put forward some feasible countermeasures and suggestions. The specific conclusions are as follows: the long-term income mobility is greater than the short-term. Therefore, the income gap in the long run is smaller than that in the short term. The results showed that the probability of immobility in the low income group and the high income group increased with the development of economy, and the middle income group showed a fluctuating state. And the total probability value is low. The transfer matrix with the same time interval obtained by cluster analysis is larger in elements, smaller in middle and high income groups, or even zero. The results show that the low income group. Although there are fluctuations in the probability of immobility of the middle and low income group, the overall trend is an obvious upward trend. The income liquidity index has a significant downward trend with the economic growth. The results of the two methods are consistent. However, the income liquidity index of cluster analysis is smaller than that of the five equal division method, so we can see that the income gap of our country is large. The income flow direction index is less than 1 in most periods, indicating that the income flow is mostly downward. Through the study of urban and rural residents, it is found that the income mobility index of urban residents is generally larger than that of rural residents, indicating that urban residents' income is more mobile, but. The income flow direction of urban residents is mainly downward flow. Rural residents' income mobility is poor, but. The main direction of income flow of rural residents is upward mobility. The results of the analysis of the factors affecting income mobility show that the initial income level, education level and regional factors have a significant impact on income mobility. Sex, age and occupation type had significant effects on only some people.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F124.7

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