本文關(guān)鍵詞：美元本位制下美國金融危機的形成與國際傳染機制研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

美元本位制下美國金融危機的形成與國際傳染機制研究---世界經(jīng)濟

時間:12-10-08

Study on the Formation and International Contagion Mechanism of U.S. Financial Crisis under the Dollar Standard

【摘要】 經(jīng)濟文獻中最為傳統(tǒng)的主題就是金融危機。在人類發(fā)展歷史的長河中,金融危機如影相隨,像“幽靈”一樣伴隨著世界經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展過程。每一次金融危機都留給了經(jīng)濟學家們無盡的思索。本文探討的主題是美元本位制下美國金融危機的形成與傳染機制。自次貸危機爆發(fā)到發(fā)展為全面的金融危機以來,理論學界從多方面開展了富有成效的研究,取得了一些可喜的成果。目前,對美國金融危機的關(guān)注更多地集中在對美國金融危機發(fā)生原因或形成機理的探討上。在2007年至2008年初期,經(jīng)濟學家們更多的是分析次貸危機的發(fā)生原因或形成機理,然而,隨著次貸危機的深化,次貸危機逐步發(fā)展成為了全球性的金融危機,經(jīng)濟學家們開始從不同視角修正和發(fā)展原先對次貸危機的認識。有關(guān)美國金融危機發(fā)生原因或形成機理的解釋主要有:(1)美國金融危機的發(fā)生根源于美國的貨幣政策;(2)美國金融危機歸咎于次貸及其金融衍生品的泛濫;(3)美國金融危機與美國政府部門的監(jiān)管體制存在重點缺陷有關(guān);(4)美國金融危機是全球經(jīng)濟失衡所導致,是全球經(jīng)濟失衡的產(chǎn)物;(5)美國金融危機根本原因在于美國經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)的嚴重失衡,尤其是美國實體經(jīng)濟與虛擬經(jīng)濟的嚴重失衡;(6)美國金融危機歸咎于中國的“匯率操縱”或以中國為代表的新興市場國家的“過度儲蓄”。在關(guān)于美國金融危機發(fā)生原因的六種解釋中,前五種解釋具有一定的客觀性和科學性,分析也頗有見地。不可否認,這五種解釋確實是揭示出了美國金融危機發(fā)生的直接原因或誘因,但這里需要提出質(zhì)疑的是:什么原因決定著美國所采取的貨幣政策?次貸及其金融衍生品的泛濫又與什么因素相關(guān)?曾被認為是世界上最先進、最完善和最有秩序的金融市場,以及具有世界上最大和最國際化金融部門的美國政府部門的監(jiān)管體制又為何存在現(xiàn)在看來如此明顯的缺陷呢?全球經(jīng)濟失衡和美國國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)嚴重失衡是什么原因所導致的呢?如果深入思考這些問題的話,美國金融危機的發(fā)生就不是這五種解釋所能說明的了。將美國金融危機的責任歸咎于中國“匯率操縱”或新興市場國家“過度儲蓄”的解釋,只不過是反映了西方部分學者和政客的偏見和無知而已,他們的解釋無非就是熱衷于為華爾街洗清罪名而已。筆者認為,美國金融危機發(fā)生的根源在于美元本位制。主要觀點如下:一、美元本位制與當代金融危機尤其是發(fā)展中國家金融危機的發(fā)生密切相關(guān)從目前來看,在所有有關(guān)金融危機的研究文獻中,鮮有人從貨幣本位制角度去分析每一次金融危機。但筆者通過分析美元本位制的調(diào)節(jié)和運行機制、博弈規(guī)則以及美元本位制的缺陷,結(jié)合美元本位制確立以來國際金融危機頻繁發(fā)生,得出美元本位制確實對近幾次國際金融危機的發(fā)生負有不可推卸的責任。以此作為邏輯的出發(fā)點,筆者認為美元本位制也是造成目前美國金融危機爆發(fā)的根本原因。這既是本文的基本觀點,也是本文的創(chuàng)新所在。二、美元本位制的內(nèi)在脆弱性引發(fā)了美國金融危機美元本位制的內(nèi)在脆弱性主要體現(xiàn)為:自我調(diào)節(jié)機制的缺失、新特里芬難題、最后貸款人角色的缺失以及美元霸權(quán)體系的不穩(wěn)定性。美元本位制的這些內(nèi)在脆弱性導致美元成為全球最大的風險要素以及美元匯率波動并呈現(xiàn)長期走低之勢,也正因為如此,才引發(fā)美元信用危機以及帶來“美元悖論”之困境,以至于最終導致美國金融危機爆發(fā)。三、美元本位制下的金融政策導致美國金融危機筆者認為,美元本位制的本質(zhì)就是美元霸權(quán),因此美元本位制下的美國金融政策也具有霸權(quán)特征。美元本位制下美國的金融政策主要表現(xiàn)為:強勢美元政策、“重內(nèi)輕外”的金融政策、金融自由化政策、浮動匯率政策以及長期低利率政策。美元本位制帶來全球信用膨脹尤其是美元資產(chǎn)的膨脹,其結(jié)果只能是美元幣值長期走弱,然而這與美國推行的強勢美元政策是相矛盾的,就是由于這種矛盾才促發(fā)了次貸危機并最終演變?yōu)槿娴慕鹑谖C;美元本位制下,美國借助于美元的本位貨幣地位,采取了注重國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟均衡,輕視外部經(jīng)濟均衡的金融政策。這種政策結(jié)果是,美元過度供給,國內(nèi)信用膨脹。然而,信用泡沫總有破滅的一天,次貸危機的爆發(fā)就是信用過度膨脹所導致;在美元本位制下,美國引領(lǐng)著全球金融自由化的浪潮。金融自由化導致的一個最直接的結(jié)果就是金融創(chuàng)新的過度。在過度金融創(chuàng)新的刺激下,次貸以及與次貸有關(guān)的金融衍生品也迅速被創(chuàng)造并不斷成倍地放大。當這些創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品的本源——次級住房信貸資產(chǎn)出現(xiàn)問題時,建立在這個基礎(chǔ)之上的金融衍生工具市場就猶如空中樓閣,轟然坍塌下來;美國之所以長期采取低利率政策,其根源也在于美元本位制,根源于美元本位制下美元的特殊回流機制。四、美元本位制下的經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)失衡造成了美國的金融危機盡管對美國經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)的嚴重失衡有諸多解釋,但筆者認為,美國經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)失衡的最深刻的根源在于美元本位制。因此,如果說美國經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)的嚴重失衡是美國金融危機發(fā)生的誘因的話,那么,美元本位制就是美國金融危機爆發(fā)的根源所在。就因為美元本位制,才造成美國的過度消費和長期存在“雙赤字”局面;就因為美元本位制,才導致美國經(jīng)濟的“去工業(yè)化”和虛擬經(jīng)濟過度化。然而,不管是美元本位制下的過度消費,還是“雙赤字”,最終都將難以長期維持,當這種局面越來越不能維持時,危機的發(fā)生也就理所當然了。同樣的是,實體經(jīng)濟與虛擬經(jīng)濟嚴重失衡,實體經(jīng)濟過度虛擬化也蘊含著巨大的金融風險,當這種風險積累到了一定程度時,金融危機的爆發(fā)也難以避免。現(xiàn)代金融危機越來越具有國際傳染性。美元本位制下美國金融危機的國際傳染有其獨特性。不同貨幣本位制下的金融危機傳染呈現(xiàn)不同的特征,具體來說,在金本位制和布雷頓森林貨幣體系下,金融危機國際傳染的結(jié)果表現(xiàn)為區(qū)域性的或全球性的通貨緊縮。而在美元本位制下,由于浮動利率長期化、國際收支調(diào)節(jié)機制的不健全化以及美元霸權(quán)的存在,金融危機發(fā)生、傳輸?shù)念l率和速度日益加快,尤其是20世紀的90年代,危機的發(fā)生更加頻繁,影響的范圍也在日益擴大。并且,在美元本位制下,美國金融危機的國際傳染呈現(xiàn)出“美國咳嗽,全球著涼”的經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)象。在美元本位制下,憑借美國自身經(jīng)濟實力,美國金融危機的國際傳染主要通過貨幣增發(fā)、美元貶值、大宗商品漲價、全球通貨膨脹、債券投資價值縮水以及心理預期等方式向世界轉(zhuǎn)嫁金融危機。

【Abstract】 Financial crisis is the most traditional themes in the economic literature.Like a ghost,the development of the world economy has been accompanied by the financial crisis in the long river of human development history.Every time,the financial crisis has left economists endless thoughts.The theme of this paper is the formation and transmission mechanism of the U.S. financial crisis under the dollar standard.Since the outbreak of the sub-prime crisis which has developed into a comprehensive financial crisis,many academic researches have been carried out,and have achieved some encouraging results.At present,people mainly concerned about the causes or formation mechanism of financial crisis.From 2007 to the early of 2008, economists mainly analyzed the occurrence or the formation mechanism of sub-prime crisis.However,with the deepening of the sub-prime crisis which gradually becoming a global financial crisis,economists have begun to amend and develop the original understanding of sub-loan crisis from different perspectives.The explanation of the cause or formation mechanism of financial crisis includes:(1)U.S.financial crisis was rooted in U.S.monetary policy;(2)U.S.financial crisis was attributed to sub-prime and the deluge of financial derivatives;(3)U.S.financial crisis was related to the existence of key regulatory system defects of the U.S.government;(4)U.S. financial crisis was caused by the global economic imbalance,and it was the product of global economic imbalances;(5)U.S.financial crisis was rooted in the serious imbalance in the economic structure of the United States,especially a serious imbalance of the real economy and the virtual economy;(6)U.S.financial crisis was attributed to China’s“currency manipulation”or the“over-saving”of the emerging market countries which was represented by China.Among the above six explanations, the first five are comparatively objective and scientific,and they have thoughtful analysis to some extent.It is undeniable that the first five explanations reveal the direct causes or incentives of the U.S.financial crisis.However,they are also questioned:What decides the U.S.monetary policy?What factors are contributed to sub-prime crisis and the deluge of financial derivatives?As the most advanced, perfect and best-regulated financial markets in the world,and the largest and the most international financial sector in the world,why the regulatory system of U.S. government departments now seems so obvious deficiencies?What are the causes of global economic imbalances and the serious imbalance in economic structure of U.S.? If deeply thinking these issues,the first five explanations will not fully explain the financial crisis in the United States.The sixth explanation is only a reflection of bias and ignorance of some scholars and politicians of Western,and it is nothing more than just clearing the charges for Wall Street.The author believes that the U.S.financial crisis is rooted in the dollar standard.Main points are as follows:Firstly,The contemporary financial crisis,particularly the financial crisis in developing countries is closely related to the dollar standard.Reviewing the research literatures about financial crisis,very few analyzes every financial crisis with the perspective of the monetary standard.However,through the analysis of the regulation of dollar standard and operational mechanism,the game rules,as well as the defects in dollar standard,and the frequent international financial crisis since dollar standard was established,the author concludes that dollar standard can not shirk its responsibility for the occurrence of the recent international financial crisis.With this logical starting point,the author believes that dollar standard is the rooted cause of the outbreak of the current U.S.financial crisis.This is not only the basic viewpoint of this dissertation,but also the innovation in it.Secondly,the inherent vulnerability of dollar standard leads to the U.S.financial crisis.Inherent vulnerability of dollar standard is shown in the following:lack of self-adjustment mechanism,new Triffin problems,missing of lender role of last resort, as well as the instability of U.S.hegemonic system.It is such inherent vulnerability of dollar standard that lead to the dollar becoming the world’s largest risky factor,as well as dollar exchange rate fluctuations and a long-term down trend.It is just such reasons that triggered the U.S.credit crisis,as well as the dilemma of“paradox of dollars”and eventually led to the outbreak of the U.S.financial crisis.Thirdly,monetary policy under the dollar standard led to the U.S.financial crisis.The author believes that the essence of dollar standard is U.S.hegemony,so the U.S.financial policy under dollar standard also has the characteristics of hegemony. The U.S.financial policy under dollar standard includes:strong dollar policy, financial policy of“heavy inner and light outside”,financial liberalization policy, floating exchange rate policy,as well as long-term low interest rate policy.Dollar standard brought about the global credit expansion,in particular,the expansion of dollar assets.The result is a long-term weakening of the dollar.However,it is contradictory with the strong dollar policy.As a result,it is this contradiction that triggered the sub-prime crisis and eventually evolved into a comprehensive financial crisis.Under dollar standard,with the status of currency-based dollar,the United States adopted a financial policy focusing on the domestic economy balance while ignoring the external economic balance.This policy has resulted in excessive supply of dollars,as well as expansion of domestic credit.However,the credit bubble will inevitably burst one day,and the outbreak of the sub-prime crisis is caused by the excessive expansion of credit.The United States leads the global wave of financial liberalization under dollar standard.Excessive financial innovation is one of the most direct results caused by financial liberalization.In the stimulation of excessive financial innovation,sub-prime and related financial derivatives are created rapidly and constantly multiplied.When secondary housing credit assets which are the origin of these innovative products arising problem,market built on the basis of the financial derivatives collapsed down like castles in the air.The United States has taken a long-term low interest rate policy,which is rooted in the dollar standard,as well as the special return mechanism of the dollar standard.Fourthly,the imbalance of the U.S.economic structure under dollar standard caused the financial crisis.Although there are many explanations to the serious imbalance of the U.S. economy structure,the author believes that the structural imbalance of the U.S. economy is most profoundly rooted in dollar standard.Therefore,if we say that the serious imbalance of the U.S.economy structure is the incentive of the U.S.financial crisis,then,dollar standard is the source of the outbreak of the U.S.financial crisis.It is just because of dollar standard that has caused over-consumption and long-term“double deficit”in the United States,and also led to“de-industrialization”and economic over-virtualization.However,regardless of over-consumption or“double deficits”under dollar standard,eventually it will be difficult to maintain.When this situation can not be maintained for long,the occurrence of the crisis is inevitable. Similarly,there is serious imbalance between real economy and virtual economy,and over-virtualization of the real economy also contains huge financial risks.When such risk is accumulated to certain degree,it is difficult to avoid the outbreak of the financial crisis.More and more modern financial crisis is contagious in the international arena. Under dollar standard,the international contagion of the U.S.financial crisis has its own unique characteristics.Under the different monetary standard,financial crisis has different contagion characteristics.Specifically,under gold standard and Bretton Woods monetary system,international contagion of financial crisis is reflected in the regional or global deflation.Based on the dollar standard,as a result of long-term floating interest rates,unsound adjustment mechanism of international balance of payments,as well as the existence of U.S.hegemony,the occurrence of financial crisis,transmission frequency and speed are accelerating,especially in the 1990s,the financial crisis was becoming more frequent and increasingly widespread.Moreover, under dollar standard,international contagion of the U.S.financial crisis shows a economic phenomenon of“United States coughs,the world catch a cold”.Under dollar standard,with the economic strength of the United States itself,the U.S. financial crisis,mainly through currency issuance,depreciation of the dollar,bulk commodity prices rising,global inflation,the diminution in value of bond investments, psychological expectations etc.,passed on to the world.

【關(guān)鍵詞】 次貸危機； 金融危機； 美元本位制； 國際傳染；
【Key words】 Sub-Prime Crisis； Financial Crisis； Dollar Standard； International Contagion；

論文摘要 6-9
ABSTRACT 9-12
第一章 緒論 17-36
    第一節(jié) 問題的提出 17-19
    第二節(jié) 文獻綜述 19-32
    第三節(jié) 研究的思路、方法與一些基本概念 32-34
    第四節(jié) 內(nèi)容安排 34-36
第二章 美元本位制與當代金融危機 36-65
    第一節(jié) 美元本位制的理論概述 36-51
    第二節(jié) 當代金融危機及其研究綜述 51-57
    第三節(jié) 美元本位制與當代金融危機的關(guān)系 57-65
第三章 美國金融危機概述 65-84
    第一節(jié) 美國金融市場概述 65-70
    第二節(jié) 美國金融危機的爆發(fā)與深化 70-77
    第三節(jié) 美國金融危機的本質(zhì)認識 77-84
第四章 美元本位制的內(nèi)在脆弱性與美國金融危機 84-105
    第一節(jié) 金融脆弱性理論 84-91
    第二節(jié) 美元本位制的內(nèi)在脆弱性 91-99
    第三節(jié) 美元本位制的內(nèi)在脆弱性與美國金融危機的關(guān)系 99-105
第五章 美國金融政策與美國金融危機 105-133
    第一節(jié) 美元本位制與美元霸權(quán) 105-108
    第二節(jié) 美元霸權(quán)與美國的金融政策 108-121
    第三節(jié) 美國的金融政策與美國金融危機的關(guān)系 121-133
第六章 美國經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)失衡與美國金融危機 133-158
    第一節(jié) 經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)與金融危機 133-139
    第二節(jié) 美元本位制與美國經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)失衡 139-153
    第三節(jié) 美國經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)失衡與美國金融危機的關(guān)系 153-158
第七章 美元本位制下美國金融危機的國際傳染機制 158-178
    第一節(jié) 金融危機的國際傳染機制概述 158-160
    第二節(jié) 國際金融危機傳染機制的分類 160-165
    第三節(jié) 美元本位制與美國金融危機的國際傳染 165-168
    第四節(jié) 美元本位制下美國金融危機的國際傳染途徑 168-178
第八章 結(jié)論 178-181
    第一節(jié) 本書主要結(jié)論的回顧 178-179
    第二節(jié) 需要進一步研究的課題 179-181
參考文獻 181-192
后記 192
 

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  本文關(guān)鍵詞：美元本位制下美國金融危機的形成與國際傳染機制研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。