本文關鍵詞：我國森林可持續(xù)利用的生態(tài)經(jīng)濟彈性分析，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

我國森林可持續(xù)利用的生態(tài)經(jīng)濟彈性分析

Analysis of Forest Sustainable Utilization in China Using a Ecological Economy Elasticity Model

[1]

Liu Lin（ 1.College of Economics and Management, China Jiliang University Hangzhou 310018;）

中國計量學院經(jīng)濟與管理學院,杭州310018

文章摘要：以我國31個省、市、自治區(qū)為樣本區(qū)域,利用1999-2010年的森林蓄積量和林業(yè)總產(chǎn)值數(shù)據(jù),采用改進的生態(tài)經(jīng)濟彈性模型,對不同尺度森林生態(tài)經(jīng)濟彈性進行測度和分析,以反映森林資源供給與經(jīng)濟需求之間的協(xié)調(diào)關系.結果表明：1）全國尺度上,我國森林生態(tài)經(jīng)濟彈性均值為0.255,處于生態(tài)滯后狀態(tài),且在研究區(qū)間內(nèi)上升趨勢不明顯;2）區(qū)域尺度上,森林生態(tài)經(jīng)濟彈性均值的區(qū)域排列為東部（1.271）＞中部（-0.277）＞西部（-0.394）;3）省域尺度上,天津（2.195）、遼寧（1.621）、廣西（1.579）、廣東（1.472）、福建（1.471）、西藏（1.344）、河北（1.337）、浙江（1.264）、海南（1.217）、北京（1.165）10個省份森林生態(tài)經(jīng)濟彈性較高;山東（0.983）和江蘇（0.969）處在生態(tài)滯后臨界值附近;四川（0.409）和云南（0.337）則步入了生態(tài)滯后狀態(tài);黑龍江（0.046）、陜西（0.016）、上海（0.003）和內(nèi)蒙古（0.002）幾乎處于無彈性狀態(tài);其余13個省份均處于重度生態(tài)滯后狀態(tài),寧夏（-2.488）和青海（-2.714）最嚴重.

Abstr：In this paper,the author estimated and analyzed the changing process of elasticity of forest ecological economy by applying forest stock volume and total output value of forestry data,which represent forest resource supply and economic demand,in China from 1999 to 2010 with an elastic model,to reveal the synergic relationship between the supply of forest resources and the demand of economy.The results show that 1） on the nationwide scale,the average elasticity value of ecological economy is 0.255,indicating that the rate of forest stock rise is less than the rate of forest economic growth,and suggesting ecological lagging behind.There is no increasing trend during this research interval.2）on the regional scale,the elasticity value of forest ecological economy is 1.271 in the east region,-0.277 in the west region,and-0.394 in the middle region of China.3） on the provincial scale,the elasticity value of ecological economy is 2.195 for Tianjin,1.621 for Liaoning,1.579 for Guangxi,1.472 for Guangdong,1.471 for Fujian,1.344 for Tibet,1.337 for Hebei,1.264 for Zhejiang,1.217 for Hainan,and 1.165 for Beijing,respectively.The above provinces have relatively higher elasticity.Shandong and Jiangsu have 0.984 and 0.969 of the elasticity value,respectively,and they are near the critical value of ecological lagging.The following provinces,including Sichuan,0.409,and Yunnan,0.337,are in mild lagged state.Heilongjiang,0.046,Shaanxi,0.016,Shanghai,0.003 and Inner Mongolia,0.002 are in no elastic state.The left 13 provinces are in serious lagged state,especially Ningxia,-2.488 and Qinghai,-2.714.

文章關鍵詞：

Keyword：:forest sustainable utilization elasticity of ecological economy

課題項目：中國計量學院哲學社會科學一般項目（SLY201202）;國家自然科學基金青年項目（71103168）;浙江省哲社重點研究基地＂產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展政策研究中心＂和浙江省人文社科基地＂管理科學與工程＂資助.

  本文關鍵詞：我國森林可持續(xù)利用的生態(tài)經(jīng)濟彈性分析，，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。