【摘要】：當(dāng)前中央提出轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式、走可持續(xù)發(fā)展的道路,這要求改變過(guò)去粗放式的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式,走環(huán)境友好型、資源節(jié)約型的新型工業(yè)化道路。這一戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)的提出,即是解決中國(guó)改革開(kāi)放30年所累積矛盾的內(nèi)在需要,也是應(yīng)對(duì)金融危機(jī)后全球經(jīng)濟(jì)體系正在變革的客觀要求。上海作為中國(guó)對(duì)外開(kāi)放的前沿窗口和經(jīng)濟(jì)重鎮(zhèn),是最早面臨增長(zhǎng)瓶頸和經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型問(wèn)題的地區(qū)之一,因此研究上海的經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型問(wèn)題,對(duì)探索中國(guó)未來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模式,具有十分重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)價(jià)值。 圍繞上海經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型這一命題,本文試圖解決三個(gè)核心的問(wèn)題：一是為什么上海的經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型需要調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)；二是上海的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整受哪些因素影響,需要調(diào)整哪些產(chǎn)業(yè)?如何去選擇這此產(chǎn)業(yè)?；三是如何調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)? 針對(duì)這三個(gè)問(wèn)題,本文按照“現(xiàn)狀分析——原因剖析——調(diào)整目標(biāo)——影響因素——對(duì)策建議”的研究思路,著重進(jìn)行了以下幾個(gè)方面的研究：(1)上海經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過(guò)程中,在產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)方面存在的主要問(wèn)題是什么?(2)如何確定上海產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)戰(zhàn)略性調(diào)整的方向和適應(yīng)性調(diào)整的目標(biāo)?(3)影響上海產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的國(guó)內(nèi)外因素主要是什么?(4)如何調(diào)整上海產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)? 之所以要調(diào)整上海的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),其根本原因在于中國(guó)過(guò)去通過(guò)招商引資,以低要素成本參與國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的增長(zhǎng)模式難以為繼。轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式意味著要將經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的動(dòng)力由主要依靠增加要素投入和外部需求,轉(zhuǎn)變到主要依靠勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率的提高和啟動(dòng)內(nèi)需市場(chǎng)來(lái)推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)。對(duì)于如何提高勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率,學(xué)術(shù)界已有大量文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行研究,歸結(jié)起來(lái)其機(jī)制主要是科技進(jìn)步、內(nèi)生經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)換三個(gè)方面。本文從分析上海產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的匹配關(guān)系入手,通過(guò)對(duì)上海經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中的“結(jié)構(gòu)紅利”效應(yīng)進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)上海30年多來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)主要來(lái)自各產(chǎn)業(yè)的內(nèi)部增長(zhǎng)效應(yīng),結(jié)構(gòu)變遷效應(yīng)并不顯著；結(jié)構(gòu)紅利對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的推動(dòng)僅是階段性現(xiàn)象,突出表現(xiàn)在勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)率較低時(shí)期,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變遷較為明顯,其它時(shí)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)主要依靠各產(chǎn)業(yè)的內(nèi)部增長(zhǎng)效應(yīng)。由此進(jìn)一步分析得出,上海產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的主要原因在于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中的技術(shù)進(jìn)步水平大幅下降,表現(xiàn)為1999年以來(lái),全要素生產(chǎn)率對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)持續(xù)下降,技術(shù)進(jìn)步的缺乏已經(jīng)導(dǎo)致了各產(chǎn)業(yè)失去了進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)的潛力,只能依靠增加要素投入進(jìn)行粗放式增長(zhǎng)。這意味著,如果不從根本上提高科技進(jìn)步水平、提高產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展中的技術(shù)含量,轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式將失去實(shí)體產(chǎn)業(yè)的基礎(chǔ)。因此,在目前發(fā)展階段,與滿足內(nèi)需等因素相比,調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)才是上海轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式的關(guān)鍵；而結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的核心任務(wù)是提高勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率、增強(qiáng)產(chǎn)業(yè)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,具體可以概括為產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高級(jí)化、合理化和高度化。 通過(guò)上述的理論分析、邏輯推理和實(shí)證研究,論文認(rèn)為：(1)對(duì)照國(guó)際標(biāo)準(zhǔn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),上海目前產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)總體上處于合理范圍之內(nèi),第三產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)超越第二產(chǎn)業(yè)成為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主要?jiǎng)恿Γ?2)上海產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的主要問(wèn)題在于,產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展在國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中被低端鎖定的同時(shí),各產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部同時(shí)存在著產(chǎn)值結(jié)構(gòu)、就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)的偏差,不利于經(jīng)濟(jì)的進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)；(3)上海產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整是世界經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)周期運(yùn)行規(guī)律下,發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家再工業(yè)化戰(zhàn)略和中國(guó)(上海)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行累積矛盾共同作用的必然選項(xiàng)；(4)上海產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的主要目標(biāo)是占領(lǐng)世界第五次長(zhǎng)周期的技術(shù)高地和產(chǎn)業(yè)先機(jī),為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入世界第五次長(zhǎng)周期發(fā)展開(kāi)好局；(5)上海產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的抓手是戰(zhàn)略新興產(chǎn)業(yè)和高科技產(chǎn)業(yè),這需要在開(kāi)放中加強(qiáng)技術(shù)的自主研發(fā)和引進(jìn)國(guó)外先進(jìn)技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)。由此決定在國(guó)與國(guó)的產(chǎn)業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中,市場(chǎng)必然是主體,政府仍須參與其中,但一切都必須按市場(chǎng)規(guī)則行事。 與以往的研究相比,本文的創(chuàng)新之處在于： 1、本文從產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系視角,通過(guò)研究“區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中的結(jié)構(gòu)紅利現(xiàn)象”,分析了上海產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的主要原因。指出如果不改變上海產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展中技術(shù)進(jìn)步缺乏的問(wèn)題,轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式將失去產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的基礎(chǔ)。 2、本文從世界經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)周期運(yùn)行的角度分析了中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的戰(zhàn)略轉(zhuǎn)型的必要性,并從全球經(jīng)濟(jì)體系變革、美國(guó)再工業(yè)化戰(zhàn)略和中國(guó)國(guó)家戰(zhàn)略轉(zhuǎn)型的大視角,分析了上海產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的目標(biāo)任務(wù)、影響因素和主要脈絡(luò)。 3、在研究方法上,主要使用偏離份額分析法、時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)分析、結(jié)構(gòu)偏差分析和錢(qián)納里修正模型,對(duì)上海產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整中的全要素生產(chǎn)率、結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)、影響因素等進(jìn)行了定量分析,從中發(fā)現(xiàn)了上海產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整有別于其他地區(qū)之處,從而為分析結(jié)論和政策建議提供了數(shù)據(jù)方面的支撐。
[Abstract]:At present, the central government proposes to change the mode of economic growth and take the road of sustainable development, which calls for changing the extensive mode of economic development in the past and taking the new industrialization road of environment-friendly and resource-saving. As a leading window and economic center of China's opening up to the outside world, Shanghai is one of the earliest regions facing growth bottlenecks and economic transformation problems. Therefore, it is of great practical value to study the economic transformation of Shanghai in order to explore China's future economic growth model.
Around the proposition of Shanghai's economic transformation, this paper attempts to solve three core problems: first, why Shanghai's economic transformation needs to adjust the industrial structure; second, what factors affect Shanghai's industrial restructuring, which industries need to be adjusted; how to choose this industry? Third, how to adjust the industrial structure?
In view of these three problems, this paper focuses on the following aspects: (1) What are the main problems in the industrial structure of Shanghai in the process of economic development? (2) How to determine the industrial structure of Shanghai? Construct the direction of strategic adjustment and the goal of adaptive adjustment? (3) What are the main domestic and foreign factors affecting Shanghai's industrial structure adjustment? (4) How to adjust Shanghai's industrial structure?
The fundamental reason for adjusting Shanghai's industrial structure lies in the fact that it was difficult for China to sustain the growth pattern of participating in international competition with low factor cost by attracting investment. Changing the mode of economic growth means that the motive force of economic growth should be changed from mainly relying on increasing factor input and external demand to relying mainly on labor production. A large number of literatures have been published on how to improve labor productivity. In conclusion, the mechanism is mainly scientific and technological progress, endogenous economic growth and industrial structure transformation. By examining the "structural dividend" effect in Shanghai's economic growth, it is found that the economic growth in the past 30 years in Shanghai has mainly come from the internal growth effect of various industries, and the effect of structural change is not significant. The change of industrial structure is more obvious, and the economic growth in other periods mainly depends on the internal growth effect of various industries. The further analysis shows that the main reason for Shanghai's industrial restructuring is that the level of technological progress in economic growth has dropped sharply, which shows that the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to economic growth has been declining steadily since 1999. The lack of technological progress has led to the loss of the potential for further growth of various industries, which can only be achieved by increasing the input of factors. In the exhibition stage, the adjustment of industrial structure is the key to the transformation of Shanghai's economic growth mode, compared with meeting domestic demand and other factors, while the core task of structural adjustment is to improve labor productivity and enhance the competitiveness of industries, which can be summarized as the upgrading, rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure.
Through the above theoretical analysis, logical reasoning and empirical research, the paper holds that: (1) compared with the international standard industrial structure, Shanghai's industrial structure is generally within a reasonable range, the tertiary industry has exceeded the secondary industry as the main driving force for economic growth; (2) the main problem of Shanghai's industrial structure lies in the international industrial development. While the competition is locked in by the low-end, the output value structure exists in each industry at the same time, and the deviation of employment structure contributing to economic growth is not conducive to further economic growth; (3) Shanghai's industrial restructuring is the long-term operation of the world economy, the developed countries're-industrialization strategy and China's (Shanghai) economic operation cumulative contradictions co-exist. The main objective of Shanghai's industrial restructuring is to occupy the fifth long-term technological plateau and industrial opportunities in the world, and to open a good beginning for China's economy to enter the fifth long-term development of the world; (5) The key to Shanghai's industrial restructuring is strategic emerging industries and high-tech industries, which need to be strengthened in the process of opening up. Independent R&D of technology and the introduction of foreign advanced technology industries determine that in the industrial competition between countries, the market must be the main body, and the government must still participate in it, but all must act according to market rules.
Compared with previous studies, the innovation of this paper is:
1. From the perspective of the relationship between industrial structure and economic growth, this paper analyzes the main reasons for Shanghai's industrial restructuring by studying the phenomenon of structural dividend in regional economic growth.
2. This paper analyzes the necessity of strategic transformation of China's economic operation from the perspective of long-term operation of the world economy, and from the perspective of global economic system reform, American re-industrialization strategy and China's national strategic transformation, analyzes the objectives, tasks, influencing factors and main contexts of Shanghai's industrial restructuring.
3. In the research method, we mainly use deviation share analysis, time series data analysis, structural deviation analysis and Channery correction model to quantitatively analyze the total factor productivity, structural effect and influencing factors in Shanghai's industrial restructuring, and find out the differences between Shanghai's industrial restructuring and other regions. It provides data support for analyzing conclusions and policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海社會(huì)科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F127

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