【摘要】：自貿(mào)區(qū)作為以制度改革為核心的"國家試驗(yàn)田",是中央政府做出的關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)改革、轉(zhuǎn)型和升級(jí)的戰(zhàn)略決策,其目標(biāo)不僅是要推動(dòng)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,更要通過先行先試的模式探索可在全國范圍內(nèi)推廣復(fù)制的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。本文以最早成立的上海自貿(mào)區(qū)為例,運(yùn)用面板數(shù)據(jù)政策效應(yīng)評(píng)估方法與合成控制法,對比自貿(mào)區(qū)成立前后經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的實(shí)際值與"反事實(shí)"值之差,揭示樣本期內(nèi)不同季度的實(shí)施效果,評(píng)估其對地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):兩種方法評(píng)估下上海自貿(mào)區(qū)對上海地區(qū)實(shí)際人均GDP、固定資產(chǎn)投資及進(jìn)出口總額的影響效應(yīng)分別為2.82%、1.25%、2.54%、2.34%及3.24%、1.05%、2.75%、2.23%,其中對人均GDP的影響較大,所得結(jié)果大于零且基本保持一致,表明自貿(mào)區(qū)對地方經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響效應(yīng)為正,兩種方法均通過了穩(wěn)健性檢驗(yàn)。
[Abstract]:As a "national experimental field" with institutional reform as the core, the FTA is a strategic decision made by the central government on economic reform, transformation and upgrading. Its goal is not only to promote regional economic development. We should explore the experience of replication in the whole country through the first try mode. Taking the earliest established Shanghai Free Trade area as an example, using panel data policy effect evaluation method and composite control method, the difference between the actual value of economic variables and the "counterfactual" value before and after the establishment of the zone is compared. Reveal the implementation effect of different quarters in the sample period and evaluate its economic effect on the region. The results show that the impact of the two methods on the real per capita GDP, fixed asset investment and total import and export of Shanghai is 2.82% and 2.54% and 2.34%, respectively, and 2.75% and 2.23%, respectively. The results are more than zero and the results are basically the same. The results show that the effect of free trade zone on local economy is positive, and both methods have passed the robustness test.
【作者單位】： 西安交通大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與金融學(xué)院;南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)財(cái)政與稅務(wù)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目“促進(jìn)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)均衡增長的貨幣政策區(qū)域化調(diào)控機(jī)制研究”(71173165)
【分類號(hào)】：F752.8
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本文編號(hào)：2183222