本文選題：虛擬水貿(mào)易 + 投入產(chǎn)出分析��； 參考：《天津大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：水是人類和生物賴以生存和發(fā)展的物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ)，是構(gòu)成生態(tài)環(huán)境的基本要素，隨著社會(huì)的發(fā)展和人口的增加，全球水資源供求矛盾日漸尖銳，水資源短缺問題越來越成為許多地區(qū)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要制約因素。如何調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、優(yōu)化水資源配置，對(duì)于解決水資源短缺問題，實(shí)現(xiàn)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和水資源的可持續(xù)發(fā)展有著重要的意義。近年來出現(xiàn)的“虛擬水貿(mào)易”概念作為一種節(jié)約水資源、優(yōu)化區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的新型途徑，給水資源管理者提供了新的視角，該視角突破了“實(shí)體水”的局限，從產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)中所包含的水資源虛擬水量出發(fā)，尋求人口—產(chǎn)品—貿(mào)易循環(huán)中水資源重新分配的最優(yōu)方案，彌補(bǔ)了傳統(tǒng)方法在成本、技術(shù)問題上的缺陷，對(duì)水資源可持續(xù)利用的研究有重大意義。 本文從虛擬水的角度出發(fā)。首先，利用區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)投入產(chǎn)出表構(gòu)建了區(qū)域水資源投入產(chǎn)出分析框架，提出了區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)虛擬水量化方法，并分別建立了直接虛擬水含量系數(shù)、完全虛擬水含量系數(shù)和產(chǎn)業(yè)部門用水乘數(shù)模型。然后，建立了基于虛擬水的指標(biāo)量化體系及區(qū)域水安全評(píng)價(jià)模型，對(duì)水資源分配狀況進(jìn)行分析。最后，通過構(gòu)建水價(jià)敏感性模型，綜合考慮產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)測(cè)度和產(chǎn)業(yè)用水指標(biāo)的情況下，分析了區(qū)域內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展選擇。并提出了基于水價(jià)機(jī)制下的虛擬水貿(mào)易方法，通過適當(dāng)?shù)奶岣咚畠r(jià)，使區(qū)域內(nèi)各產(chǎn)業(yè)根據(jù)生產(chǎn)成本的改變調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模，從而達(dá)到產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化的目的。 最后以天津市為研究對(duì)象，對(duì)相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行了實(shí)例驗(yàn)證，，主要得出以下結(jié)論：基于水資源投入產(chǎn)出分析的虛擬水量化方法在天津市的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)分析中，起到了很好的量化作用；通過水安全模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)得出天津市用水結(jié)構(gòu)存在一定問題，所以需要優(yōu)化水資源配置以保證天津市水安全；通過水價(jià)機(jī)制下的虛擬水貿(mào)易，可以較好地調(diào)節(jié)天津市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)，同時(shí)在節(jié)約水資源的前提下，經(jīng)濟(jì)總產(chǎn)出也有一定的增長。由此表明通過實(shí)施虛擬水貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)略，對(duì)缺水地區(qū)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)完善、水資源利用效率提高是可行的。
[Abstract]:Water is the material basis for the survival and development of human beings and organisms, and the basic element of ecological environment. With the development of society and the increase of population, the contradiction between supply and demand of global water resources is becoming more and more acute. The shortage of water resources has become an important restriction factor for the sustainable development of social economy in many areas. How to adjust the industrial structure and optimize the allocation of water resources plays an important role in solving the shortage of water resources and realizing the sustainable development of social economy and water resources. As a new way to economize water resources and optimize regional industrial structure, the concept of "virtual water trade", which has emerged in recent years, has provided water resources managers with a new perspective, which breaks through the limitations of "solid water". Based on the virtual water quantity of water resources contained in products and services, the optimal solution of water resources redistribution in the population-product-trade cycle is sought, which makes up for the shortcomings of traditional methods in terms of cost and technology. It is of great significance to study the sustainable utilization of water resources. This paper starts from the angle of virtual water. First of all, using the regional economic input-output table to construct the regional water resources input-output analysis framework, put forward the regional industry virtual water quantification method, and establish the direct virtual water content coefficient respectively. Complete virtual water content coefficient and water multiplier model for industrial sector. Then, a quantitative index system based on virtual water and a regional water safety evaluation model are established to analyze the distribution of water resources. Finally, by constructing the water price sensitivity model, considering the industrial correlation measure and the industrial water use index, the paper analyzes the development choice of the industry in the region. The virtual water trade method based on the water price mechanism is put forward. By raising the water price properly, every industry in the region can adjust the industrial scale according to the change of the production cost, so as to achieve the purpose of optimizing the industrial structure. Finally, taking Tianjin as the research object, the paper verifies the relevant theories and draws the following conclusions: the virtual water quantization method based on the input and output analysis of water resources plays a good role in the industrial structure analysis of Tianjin; Through fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of water security, it is concluded that there are some problems in Tianjin's water structure, so it is necessary to optimize the allocation of water resources to ensure Tianjin's water safety; through the virtual water trade under the water price mechanism, Tianjin's industrial structure can be adjusted better. At the same time in the premise of saving water resources, total economic output also has a certain growth. The result shows that it is feasible to improve the industrial structure and the efficiency of water resources utilization by implementing the virtual water trade strategy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TV213.4

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