本文選題：FDI + 時(shí)空演變��； 參考：《西北大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：外商直接投資(FDI)是跨國(guó)公司的投資需求與東道國(guó)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)及政策制度等環(huán)境相互契合的結(jié)果,是推動(dòng)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的重要?jiǎng)恿ΑＮ覈?guó)利用外資規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大,但空間分布不均衡,加劇了經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展的區(qū)域差距。合理利用外資,優(yōu)化外資利用空間格局對(duì)促進(jìn)、協(xié)調(diào)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展具有重要意義。 本文利用長(zhǎng)時(shí)間序列的省域經(jīng)濟(jì)單元數(shù)據(jù),從多個(gè)角度分析FDI的時(shí)空演變特征,引入合同簽訂FDI,構(gòu)建指標(biāo)模型分析中國(guó)協(xié)議外資實(shí)現(xiàn)能力的時(shí)空變化,并結(jié)合空間自相關(guān)分析、地理集中指數(shù)分析等空間分析方法對(duì)中國(guó)FDI空間自相關(guān)性和集中程度進(jìn)行定量化表征,進(jìn)而分析其影響機(jī)制,在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建空間分析模型,通過(guò)OLS模型和地理加權(quán)回歸模型對(duì)1985～2011年中國(guó)FDI時(shí)空演變的影響因素進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),對(duì)比分析1998年和2011年各變量影響作用的變化,并得到提高外資利用水平、優(yōu)化FDI空間格局和促進(jìn)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的啟示。 主要結(jié)論有： (1)中國(guó)利用外資歷程呈現(xiàn)明顯的階段性和差異性,可以分為起步與探索階段(1979～1991)、快速成長(zhǎng)階段(1992～1999)、穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)階段(2000至今)三個(gè)階段：FDI經(jīng)歷了由低水平徘徊、快速增長(zhǎng)到穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)的過(guò)程；項(xiàng)目數(shù)量起伏較大,項(xiàng)目平均金額由低到高階段性增長(zhǎng)；行業(yè)分布由一般加工行業(yè),轉(zhuǎn)向以第二產(chǎn)業(yè)為主,再到第三產(chǎn)業(yè)快速增長(zhǎng)并趕超第二產(chǎn)業(yè)；來(lái)源地從以港澳臺(tái)為主,轉(zhuǎn)向以亞洲為主,輻射歐美等大洲的態(tài)勢(shì),香港是我國(guó)最重要的FDI來(lái)源地。差異性：合同簽訂FDI波動(dòng)明顯,實(shí)際利用FDI呈階梯增長(zhǎng)；實(shí)際利用FDI與合同簽訂FDI的差距甚大且不斷擴(kuò)大；合同簽訂FDI的增長(zhǎng)速度遠(yuǎn)超實(shí)際利用FDI。 (2)時(shí)序特征：中國(guó)各省FDI持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),FDI省域分布的均衡性提高；三大區(qū)域中,東部FDI比重逐漸降低,中西部FDI的份額不斷增長(zhǎng),但其絕對(duì)值與東部差距很大,且漸趨擴(kuò)大。 空間演變特征：中國(guó)FDI空間均衡程度提高,多中心化趨勢(shì)明顯；中國(guó)合同F(xiàn)DI實(shí)現(xiàn)率的空間差異較大,總體實(shí)現(xiàn)能力較低；中國(guó)FDI的地理集中指數(shù)不斷下降,地域集中性在逐漸減弱；中國(guó)FDI的空間演變過(guò)程存在較強(qiáng)的空間自相關(guān)性和異質(zhì)性,更多的省份成為FDI熱點(diǎn)區(qū)域。 (3)中國(guó)FDI的時(shí)空演變主要受政策、市場(chǎng)、成本、社會(huì)環(huán)境、集聚等方面因素的影響。通過(guò)OLS和GWR分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)累積效應(yīng)、經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施水平、人力成本、政策環(huán)境、商業(yè)環(huán)境對(duì)FDI時(shí)空演變的影響顯著。各變量的影響具有顯著的空間異質(zhì)性且隨時(shí)間變化,主要表現(xiàn)在：一是變量作用程度的變化,GDP、交通線路密度、平均工資、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)比重、國(guó)家級(jí)經(jīng)開(kāi)區(qū)和經(jīng)濟(jì)特區(qū)數(shù)量對(duì)FDI變化的影響變大,技術(shù)交易、累計(jì)FDI的影響力有所下降,交通線路密度對(duì)FDI的影響作用最顯著；‘二是變量作用在空間上的差異與變化,同一變量的影響在空間上差異明顯,隨觀察年份的變化而變化,且有擴(kuò)大的趨勢(shì)。 (4)優(yōu)化中國(guó)FDI空間格局以及促進(jìn)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的啟示：一是提高合同F(xiàn)DI實(shí)現(xiàn)率；二是改善區(qū)域投資環(huán)境；三是統(tǒng)籌區(qū)域發(fā)展；四是理性引資。
[Abstract]:Foreign direct investment (FDI) is the result of the mutual agreement between the investment demand of the multinational corporation and the environment of the host country, the social economy and the policy system. It is an important driving force to promote the regional economic growth. The scale of the utilization of foreign capital is expanding, but the spatial distribution is uneven, which has intensified the regional gap of economic and social development. The utilization of spatial pattern is of great significance for promoting and coordinating regional economic development.
Using the provincial economic unit data of long time series, this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of FDI from multiple angles, introduces a contract to sign FDI, constructs an index model to analyze the spatio-temporal change of the realization capability of China's agreement on foreign capital, and combines spatial autocorrelation analysis, geographic concentration index analysis and other spatial analysis methods to the autocorrelation of China's FDI space And the degree of concentration is quantified, and then the influence mechanism is analyzed. On this basis, the spatial analysis model is constructed. Through the OLS model and the geo weighted regression model, the influence factors of the time and space evolution of China's FDI in 1985~2011 years are empirically tested, and the changes of the effects of the variables in 1998 and 2011 are compared and analyzed, and the external factors are improved. The level of capital utilization, the optimization of FDI spatial pattern and the promotion of regional economic growth.
The main conclusions are as follows:
(1) the process of utilizing foreign capital in China shows obvious stages and differences, which can be divided into starting and exploring stages (1979~1991), rapid growth stage (1992~1999) and three stages of stable growth (2000 today): FDI has experienced a process from low level, rapid growth to stable growth; the number of projects fluctuates greatly, and the average gold of the project The volume from low to high stage growth; the industry distribution from the general processing industry, to the second industry, and then to the third industry rapid growth and overtake the second industry; the source from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, to Asia dominated, radiating Europe and the United States and other continents, Hongkong is the most important source of FDI in China. Difference: contract signed FD The fluctuation of I is obvious, and the actual use of FDI is stepped up. The gap between the actual use of FDI and the contract to sign the FDI is very large and expanding; the growth rate of the contract signing FDI is far beyond the actual use of FDI..
(2) timing characteristics: FDI in China's provinces continued to grow, and the equilibrium of FDI provincial distribution increased; in the three major regions, the proportion of Eastern FDI gradually decreased, and the share of the central and Western FDI increased continuously, but its absolute value was far from the East and gradually expanded.
The spatial evolution characteristics: the spatial balance of China's FDI space is improved and the trend of multi centralization is obvious; the spatial difference of the FDI realization rate in China's contract is larger, the overall realization ability is low; the geographical concentration index of the Chinese FDI is declining, the regional concentration is gradually weakening; the spatial evolution process of China's FDI has strong spatial autocorrelation and the spatial autocorrelation. Heterogeneity, more provinces have become FDI hot spots.
(3) the temporal and spatial evolution of FDI in China is mainly influenced by factors such as policy, market, cost, social environment and agglomeration. Through the analysis of OLS and GWR, it is found that cumulative effect, economic foundation, infrastructure level, human cost, policy environment, and commercial environment have significant influence on the temporal and spatial evolution of FDI. The influence of the variables has significant spatial heterogeneity and With the change of time, the main results are as follows: one is the change of variable degree of action, GDP, traffic line density, average wage, the proportion of the third industry, the influence of the national level and the number of special economic zones on the change of FDI, the influence of the accumulative FDI on the technology trading, the influence of the traffic line density on the FDI is the most significant; 'two is the effect of the traffic line density. The difference and change of variables in space, the influence of the same variable is obvious in space, and varies with the change of the year of observation.
(4) to optimize the spatial pattern of China's FDI and to promote the development of regional economy, the first is to improve the FDI implementation rate of the contract; the two is to improve the regional investment environment; three is the overall regional development; four is the rational introduction of capital.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6

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