本文選題：需求分析 + 列車開行方案　； 參考：《蘭州交通大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：在我國經(jīng)濟不斷快速發(fā)展的情況下,鐵路也經(jīng)歷著大規(guī)模的改進及發(fā)展。自上世紀九十年代,我國鐵路經(jīng)歷了六次改革,主要體現(xiàn)在以下幾方面,列車種類不斷的增加;列車速度逐漸提升;鐵路建設(shè)規(guī)模不斷的擴大(新線、復(fù)線、客運專線);列車運輸朝多元化發(fā)展(城際列車、夕發(fā)朝至列車、朝發(fā)夕至列車)。其中,新線的大規(guī)模建設(shè),實現(xiàn)了鐵路線路向區(qū)域網(wǎng)絡(luò)化發(fā)展,同時實現(xiàn)了列車運行組織方式向合理規(guī)劃型方式的跨越。本文以即將投入建設(shè)的運三線(運城至三門峽)為研究對象,主要的研究內(nèi)容包括以下幾個方面:第一,對運城至三門峽沿線區(qū)域的基本情況進行了詳細的研究,在對運城-三門峽區(qū)域內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟特征、交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)現(xiàn)狀和發(fā)展趨勢進行分析的基礎(chǔ)上,對運三線建設(shè)的必要性進行分析,認為運三線的建設(shè)將極大的改善地區(qū)運輸局面,更好的促進區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展。第二,運用傳統(tǒng)的四階段方法思想,通過對灰色模型、重力模型、Logit模型的研究及在數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)測過程中的適用性分析,對運三線的客貨運量進行預(yù)測。首先采用函數(shù)模型法及增長率法對預(yù)測年全路客貨運總量進行了預(yù)測,且采取灰色模型對預(yù)測年區(qū)域客運量和區(qū)域貨運量進行了預(yù)測;其次采用重力模型及重力模型的改進模型對預(yù)測年區(qū)域趨勢客運量和誘增客運量進行了預(yù)測;采用Logit模型及Logit改進模型對預(yù)測年區(qū)域轉(zhuǎn)移客運量進行了預(yù)測,最后預(yù)測的運三線客運量即為趨勢客運量、誘增客運量、轉(zhuǎn)移客運量預(yù)測量的總和。第三,本文根據(jù)以上的預(yù)測量,對運三線列車開行方案進行研究。通過對列車開行方案影響因素的研究,制定列車開行方案。第四,建立元胞自動機模型,仿真模擬列車開行方案,研究了站間距與列車到發(fā)之間的關(guān)系,并逐步調(diào)整參數(shù),使之符合線路的實際情況,從而得出有利于指導(dǎo)運三線開行方案編制的理論數(shù)據(jù)。本文的研究是基于運三線的實際情況進行的,可為運三線的開通提供科學(xué)的理論依據(jù)。運三線開通之后,本文所設(shè)計的列車開行方案同樣適用之。
[Abstract]:With the rapid economic development of our country, railway is also undergoing a large-scale improvement and development. Since the 1990s, China's railway has undergone six reforms, mainly reflected in the following aspects: the continuous increase in train types; the gradual increase in train speed; the continuous expansion of the scale of railway construction (new lines, double lines, etc.) Passenger dedicated line); the development of train transportation towards diversification (intercity train, overnight train to train, morning to evening train). Among them, the large-scale construction of the new line realizes the development of the railway line to the regional network, and the leapfrogging from the train operation organization mode to the rational planning mode. The main contents of this paper are as follows: first, the basic situation of the area along Yuncheng to Sanmenxia is studied in detail. On the basis of the analysis of the economic characteristics, the present situation and the development trend of the transportation network in Yuncheng Sanmenxia area, the necessity of the construction of the third line is analyzed, and it is considered that the construction of the third line will greatly improve the regional transportation situation. Better promote regional economic development. Secondly, through the study of grey model, gravity model and logit model and the applicability analysis in the process of data prediction, the passenger and cargo volume of the third line is predicted by using the traditional four-stage method. First, the function model method and the growth rate method are used to forecast the total volume of passenger and freight in the forecast year, and the grey model is adopted to forecast the regional passenger volume and regional freight volume. Secondly, the gravity model and the improved gravity model are used to forecast the regional trend passenger volume and the induced passenger volume, and the logit model and logit improved model are used to predict the regional transfer passenger volume. Finally, the forecast passenger volume is the sum of the trend passenger volume, the induced passenger volume, and the transfer passenger volume forecast. Thirdly, according to the above forecast quantity, this paper studies the operation scheme of the third line train. Through the study of the influencing factors of the train operation scheme, the train operation plan is formulated. Fourthly, the cellular automata model is established, the train running scheme is simulated, the relationship between station spacing and train arrival and departure is studied, and the parameters are adjusted step by step to make it conform to the actual situation of the line. Thus, the theoretical data which is helpful to guide the preparation of the third line operation plan are obtained. The research in this paper is based on the actual situation of the third line, which can provide a scientific theoretical basis for the opening of the third line. After the opening of the third line, the train operation scheme designed in this paper is also applicable.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U292

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 付立斌;多維空間下的列車運行圖仿真與分析[D];蘭州交通大學(xué);2014年

，

本文編號：2072573