本文選題：FTA + 農(nóng)產(chǎn)品��； 參考：《北京交通大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著世界經(jīng)濟一體化進程的推進,越來越多的國家通過締結(jié)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化組織共同促進經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展,中國與日本作為東亞最重要的兩個國家卻遲遲沒有邁出步伐。兩國極不相同的自然稟賦為農(nóng)產(chǎn)品奠定了貿(mào)易的基礎(chǔ),這種互補性會為兩國農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展帶來很大契機。但中日經(jīng)貿(mào)合作中遇見的最大阻礙之一即是農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易。 本文首先分析了中日農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀,然后根據(jù)貿(mào)易指數(shù)分析了中日農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的關(guān)系,進行了建立中日自由貿(mào)易區(qū)對農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易影響的理論分析,最后通過建立貿(mào)易引力模型預(yù)測了沒有建立和以擬建立FTA后關(guān)稅削減對中日農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易的影響。得出結(jié)論如下：(1)中日農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易發(fā)展非常迅速,但中國對日本農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口的順差在不斷擴大。(2)通過四個指數(shù)測算證實中日之間的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易互補性較強,如果建立FTA將有利于貿(mào)易的擴大。(3)FTA的理論分析推導(dǎo)出建立FTA后中日兩國的福利將會有所增加。(4)引力模型證實貿(mào)易雙方GDP、人均GDP差額與中國對日本農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進出口貿(mào)易額呈正向關(guān)系,而單位物流費用、關(guān)稅則呈反向關(guān)系。(5)無論沒有建立或擬建立FTA后,中日的貿(mào)易潛力都會有所增加,會令中日農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進出口數(shù)額大幅度增長。
[Abstract]:With the advancement of the process of world economic integration, more and more countries promote economic development through the conclusion of regional economic integration organizations, but China and Japan, as the two most important countries in East Asia, have not made any progress. The very different natural endowments of the two countries have laid the foundation for the trade of agricultural products, which will bring a great opportunity for the development of the agricultural economy of the two countries. But one of the biggest obstacles to Sino-Japanese economic and trade cooperation is agricultural trade. This paper first analyzes the current situation of agricultural trade between China and Japan, then analyzes the relationship between China and Japan in agricultural trade according to the trade index, and makes a theoretical analysis on the impact of the establishment of Sino-Japanese Free Trade area on agricultural trade. Finally, the trade gravitation model is established to predict the impact of tariff reduction on agricultural trade between China and Japan after the establishment of FTA. The conclusion is as follows: 1) the agricultural trade between China and Japan has developed very rapidly, but the surplus of China's agricultural exports to Japan is constantly expanding. 2) through four indices, it has been confirmed that the agricultural trade between China and Japan is highly complementary. If the establishment of FTA will be beneficial to the expansion of trade, the theoretical analysis of it deduces that the welfare of China and Japan will increase after the establishment of FTA.) the gravity model proves that the trade parties' GDP, per capita GDP difference and China's import and export trade with Japan's agricultural products are different from each other. Easy forehead positive relationship, However, the unit logistics cost and tariff are inversely related to each other.) after the establishment of FTA, the trade potential of China and Japan will increase, and the import and export amount of agricultural products between China and Japan will increase by a large margin.
【學位授予單位】：北京交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F752.7;F753.13;F323.7

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本文編號：1990347