本文選題：ECFA + 兩岸經(jīng)貿(mào)合作��； 參考：《北京交通大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：在區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化的發(fā)展進程中,海峽兩岸的經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系已經(jīng)成為各自對外經(jīng)濟來往中的重要組成部分。《海峽兩岸經(jīng)濟合作框架協(xié)議(ECFA)》的簽署和實施是兩岸經(jīng)貿(mào)合作領(lǐng)域的一大轉(zhuǎn)折,它將加速兩岸間商品、資本及資源的流動,同時也會對兩岸雙邊貿(mào)易、投資及相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)生重大影響。 本研究首先在總結(jié)前人研究的基礎(chǔ)上,應(yīng)用自由貿(mào)易區(qū)理論,從比較靜態(tài)的角度分析了兩岸在實施ECFA前后貿(mào)易關(guān)系的變化以及ECFA框架下可能帶來的貿(mào)易效應(yīng)。為量化ECFA的貿(mào)易效應(yīng),本文利用經(jīng)典巴拉薩模型對ECFA的貿(mào)易效應(yīng)進行實證研究。在投資及產(chǎn)業(yè)效應(yīng)的研究上,本文主要采取定性和定量及比較的方法來分析。通過本文對貿(mào)易效應(yīng)的實證研究,結(jié)果表明ECFA對中國臺灣產(chǎn)生了貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造效應(yīng),沒有貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移；對中國大陸而言,既沒有產(chǎn)生明顯的貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造效應(yīng)也沒有出現(xiàn)貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移效應(yīng)。在投資方面,ECFA有利于促進中國大陸對臺灣的投資,改善臺灣的投資環(huán)境。在產(chǎn)業(yè)影響上,在短期內(nèi),由于競爭產(chǎn)品的進入,兩岸雙邊會有部分產(chǎn)業(yè)受到創(chuàng)傷；但在長期內(nèi),這樣有利兩岸于雙邊發(fā)揮各自的比較優(yōu)勢,專業(yè)化生產(chǎn),實現(xiàn)規(guī)模經(jīng)濟降低生產(chǎn)成本,并且有利于本地產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整和實現(xiàn)雙邊更高層次的合作。 本文主要在現(xiàn)有研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合ECFA簽署后兩岸經(jīng)貿(mào)的實際運行情況,從理論和實證的角度深入且系統(tǒng)地分析了ECFA簽署對兩岸經(jīng)貿(mào)產(chǎn)生的影響,豐富了對ECFA效應(yīng)的研究。
[Abstract]:In the process of regional economic integration, The economic and trade relations between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait have become an important part of their respective foreign economic exchanges. The signing and implementation of the "Framework Agreement on Economic Cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait" is a major turning point in the field of cross-strait economic and trade cooperation. It will speed up the commodities between the two sides of the strait. The flow of capital and resources will also have a significant impact on bilateral trade, investment and related industries. On the basis of summarizing the previous studies, this study applies the theory of free trade zone to analyze the changes of the trade relations between the two sides of the strait before and after the implementation of ECFA and the possible trade effects under the framework of ECFA from a relatively static point of view. In order to quantify the trade effect of ECFA, this paper makes an empirical study on the trade effect of ECFA by using the classical Barraza model. In the study of investment and industrial effects, this paper mainly adopts qualitative and quantitative and comparative methods to analyze. Through the empirical study of trade effects in this paper, the results show that ECFA has a trade creation effect on Taiwan, and no trade transfer; for mainland China, there is neither obvious trade creation effect nor trade transfer effect. In terms of investment, ECFA is conducive to promoting mainland China's investment in Taiwan and improving Taiwan's investment environment. In terms of industrial impact, in the short term, due to the entry of competitive products, some industries on both sides of the strait will be traumatized. In the long run, however, this will help the two sides to develop their respective comparative advantages and specialize in production. The realization of economies of scale reduces production costs, and is conducive to the adjustment of local industrial structure and the realization of bilateral higher level cooperation. Based on the existing research results and the actual operation of cross-strait economy and trade after the signing of ECFA, this paper deeply and systematically analyzes the influence of ECFA signature on cross-strait economy and trade from both theoretical and empirical angles, which enriches the research on ECFA effect.
【學位授予單位】：北京交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F752.8

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