本文選題：中間品貿(mào)易 + 中國-東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)�。� 參考：《上海社會科學(xué)院》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：自20世紀(jì)80年代以來,世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的聯(lián)系越來越緊密,正朝著全球化方向發(fā)展。在此背景下,中國為與東盟國家建立了中國首個(gè)自由貿(mào)易區(qū)——中國-東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)。中國-東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的建立為中國與東盟的中間品貿(mào)易打通了道路,中國與東盟的中間品貿(mào)易因此得到長足的發(fā)展。2014年,中國與東盟的中間品貿(mào)易達(dá)到了 2700.02億美元,占總貿(mào)易的比重近70%。中間品貿(mào)易已然成為中國-東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)最重要的貿(mào)易組成。本文研究中國-東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)建立對雙方中間品貿(mào)易的影響因此具有十分重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文首先對探討了中國-東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)中間品貿(mào)易的的內(nèi)在理論機(jī)制。認(rèn)為中國-東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的建立給中間品貿(mào)易帶來了貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造效應(yīng)和規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)。本文還從理論的角度分析了中間品貿(mào)易如何受貿(mào)易成本和投資的影響。發(fā)現(xiàn)了貿(mào)易成本的下降首先帶來中間品貿(mào)易的上升,而投資對中間品貿(mào)易的影響與雙方中間品貿(mào)易量相關(guān)。當(dāng)雙方中間品貿(mào)易量較少時(shí),中間品貿(mào)易和投資存在互補(bǔ)關(guān)系,雙方貿(mào)易量較多時(shí),中間品貿(mào)易和投資存在替代關(guān)系。然后,本文對中國與東盟中間品貿(mào)易在1998-2014年的發(fā)展情況進(jìn)行分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)中國與東盟的中間品貿(mào)易是相輔相成的,是優(yōu)勢互補(bǔ)的,是國際生產(chǎn)鏈之間的融合,極大地促進(jìn)了中國與東盟中間品貿(mào)易的發(fā)展,東盟因此成為我國第一大中間品貿(mào)易伙伴。最后,本文選取了中間品貿(mào)易進(jìn)出口作為被解釋變量,中間品平均關(guān)稅水平作為解釋變量,FDI、經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模、距離和經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)作為控制變量,并選取了 2003-2014年的數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)建了面板數(shù)據(jù)。本文應(yīng)用上述的面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證,證明中國與東盟的中間品貿(mào)易的增長是因?yàn)橹袊?東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的建立所導(dǎo)致的貿(mào)易成本的降低直接相關(guān)。并通過比較實(shí)證得出了中間品貿(mào)易比最終品貿(mào)易更易受到貿(mào)易成本的影響。通過現(xiàn)狀分析、理論分析和實(shí)證分析本文得出了以下的結(jié)論:(1)中國-東盟的中間品貿(mào)易與貿(mào)易成本是負(fù)相關(guān);(2)中國-東盟的中間品貿(mào)易比最終品貿(mào)易更易受貿(mào)易成本的影響;(3)中國-東盟之間的中間品貿(mào)易和投資正處于互補(bǔ)階段。根據(jù)所得的結(jié)論,本文提出了相關(guān)的政策建議:(1)加強(qiáng)中國與東盟中間品貿(mào)易的合作。在降低貿(mào)易成本和投資成本的前提下,加強(qiáng)產(chǎn)品內(nèi)貿(mào)易的合作,實(shí)現(xiàn)優(yōu)勢互補(bǔ)、互相合作、互惠互利的目標(biāo)。(2)中國應(yīng)積極地作為引導(dǎo)者參與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化。在作為引導(dǎo)者的過程中,應(yīng)充分的利用中國-東盟自由貿(mào)易合作所提供的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。首先在容易談判的中間品貿(mào)易成本進(jìn)行談判,再由中間品惠及到其他領(lǐng)域的談判中,最終推進(jìn)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)合作的進(jìn)程。
[Abstract]:Since the 1980 s, the world economy has become more and more closely linked and is developing towards globalization.In this context, China established the first Free Trade area with ASEAN countries-China-ASEAN Free Trade area.The establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade area has opened the way for the trade in intermediates between China and ASEAN, which has made great progress. In 2014, the trade in intermediate goods between China and ASEAN reached 270.002 billion US dollars.It accounts for nearly 70% of total trade.Intermediate trade has become the most important trade component of China-ASEAN Free Trade area.Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the influence of the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade area on the trade of intermediate goods between China and ASEAN.This paper first discusses the internal theoretical mechanism of China-ASEAN Free Trade area intermediate trade.It is believed that the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade area has brought trade creation effect and scale economy effect to intermediate trade.This paper also analyzes how the trade of intermediate goods is influenced by trade cost and investment from a theoretical point of view.It is found that the decrease of trade cost first leads to the increase of intermediate goods trade, and the influence of investment on intermediate goods trade is related to the volume of intermediate goods trade between the two sides.When the volume of trade between the two sides is small, there is a complementary relationship between the trade and investment of intermediate goods, and when the volume of trade between the two sides is large, there is a substitution relationship between the trade and investment of intermediate goods.Then, this paper analyzes the development of the intermediate trade between China and ASEAN from 1998 to 2014, and finds that the intermediate trade between China and ASEAN is complementary, complementary and the fusion of international production chain.It has greatly promoted the development of intermediate goods trade between China and ASEAN, so ASEAN has become the largest trade partner between China and ASEAN.Finally, this paper selects the import and export of intermediate goods as the explanatory variable, the average tariff level of intermediate goods as the explanatory variable FDI, the economic scale, distance and economic crisis as control variables, and constructs panel data from 2003-2014.Based on the above panel data, this paper proves that the growth of intermediate trade between China and ASEAN is directly related to the reduction of trade cost caused by the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade area.Through comparison, it is concluded that the intermediate trade is more susceptible to the impact of trade cost than the final trade.Through the analysis of the current situation,Theoretical analysis and empirical analysis this paper draws the following conclusions: 1) China-ASEAN intermediate trade is negatively correlated with trade costs) China-ASEAN intermediate trade is more susceptible to the impact of trade costs than final goods trade.Trade and investment in intermediate goods between the two countries-ASEAN are in the complementary stage.According to the conclusion, this paper puts forward the relevant policy suggestion: 1) to strengthen the cooperation between China and ASEAN intermediate goods trade.On the premise of reducing the cost of trade and investment, we should strengthen the cooperation of intra-product trade, realize the goals of complementary advantages, mutual cooperation and mutual benefit) China should take an active part in regional economic integration as a guide.In the process of being a guide, we should make full use of the experience provided by China-ASEAN Free Trade Cooperation.First, the trade cost of intermediate goods which is easy to negotiate is negotiated, and then the intermediate goods benefit to other areas of negotiation, and finally the process of regional economic cooperation is promoted.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海社會科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F742

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