本文選題：科技創(chuàng)新人才 + 灰色神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)測��； 參考：《太原理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：山西資源型經(jīng)濟(jì)的順利轉(zhuǎn)型必須依靠先進(jìn)的科技水平,科技創(chuàng)新人才作為知識生產(chǎn)、傳播與擴散的主體,是技術(shù)進(jìn)步的主導(dǎo)力量,在經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展過程中,區(qū)域內(nèi)的科技創(chuàng)新人才隊伍建設(shè)的水平直接關(guān)系到區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方式的優(yōu)化升級。山西省作為經(jīng)濟(jì)改革試驗區(qū),是國家規(guī)定的經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型重點區(qū)域,全方位、深層次的經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型需要高質(zhì)量、全能型的科技創(chuàng)新人才隊伍作為支撐。因此,對科技創(chuàng)新人才在數(shù)量、質(zhì)量、產(chǎn)業(yè)布局等方面的相關(guān)研究,能夠提高區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的技術(shù)、創(chuàng)新能力,為實現(xiàn)最優(yōu)化的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式提供人才資源保障。 本文立足于山西省資源型經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展方向,通過分析轉(zhuǎn)型過程中所需科技創(chuàng)新人才類型與山西省目前人才結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)狀,在人力資本的杰出貢獻(xiàn)性、人才結(jié)構(gòu)與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)互動關(guān)系性、人才結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整方向性的理論作為指導(dǎo)的前提下,借助于山西省科技創(chuàng)新人才方面的相關(guān)統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),建立了以BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)為基并且引入灰色預(yù)測理論的灰色神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)測模型,對山西省2014—2020年科技創(chuàng)新人才從總量、學(xué)歷層次質(zhì)量、產(chǎn)業(yè)布局三方面進(jìn)行了預(yù)測,利用科技創(chuàng)新人才的動態(tài)供給來源,分析了供需之間的矛盾缺口,指出：(1)科技創(chuàng)新人才在總量上仍將供給不足,供需矛盾顯著；(2)科技創(chuàng)新人才存在供需結(jié)構(gòu)矛盾,制造業(yè)、高技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)對科技創(chuàng)新人才有較大需求量,增長速度都很快；(3)科技創(chuàng)新人才對學(xué)歷層次的需求表現(xiàn)為對研究生高學(xué)歷科技創(chuàng)新人才需求的增長速度明顯高于本科及以下學(xué)歷人才�；诖�,分別以政府、高校、企業(yè)作為科技創(chuàng)新的主體提出了人才培養(yǎng)的政策建議。 本文的選題立足于山西省經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵時期對科技創(chuàng)新型人才提出的挑戰(zhàn),使研究對象有了切實的環(huán)境依據(jù),也使得本文在數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計分析時便于確定合理的時間界限,同時也為山西省在經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型期的人才培養(yǎng)指明了方向。選擇的灰色神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)測模型在預(yù)測精度上高于單一的灰色預(yù)測和BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)測,使預(yù)測結(jié)果有較強的現(xiàn)實指導(dǎo)意義。即使預(yù)測是借助于一定的理論指導(dǎo)和數(shù)學(xué)模型,但其本身受時間因素的影響,會導(dǎo)致預(yù)測結(jié)果精度的降低,為了順利的實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型,還需在實踐過程中對預(yù)測結(jié)果進(jìn)行不斷的調(diào)整,完善科技創(chuàng)新人才的培養(yǎng)策略。
[Abstract]:The smooth transformation of Shanxi's resource-based economy must depend on the advanced scientific and technological level. As the main body of knowledge production, dissemination and diffusion, the talents of scientific and technological innovation are the leading force of technological progress, and in the process of economic transformation and development,The level of scientific and technological innovation talents in the region is directly related to the optimization and upgrading of regional economic growth mode.Shanxi Province, as the experimental area of economic reform, is the key area of economic transformation stipulated by the state. The all-round and deep-level economic transformation needs the support of high-quality, all-purpose scientific and technological innovation talents.Therefore, the research on the quantity, quality and industrial layout of scientific and technological innovation talents can improve the technology and innovation ability of regional economic development, and provide the guarantee of human resources for realizing the optimal economic development model.Based on the development direction of Shanxi resource-based economy transformation, this paper analyzes the types of scientific and technological innovation talents needed in the process of transformation and the present situation of talent structure in Shanxi Province, and makes outstanding contributions to human capital.Under the guidance of the theory of talent structure adjustment direction, with the help of the relevant statistical data of scientific and technological innovation talents in Shanxi Province,Based on BP neural network and introducing grey prediction theory, the prediction model of scientific and technological innovation talents in Shanxi Province from 2014 to 2020 is established, which is based on BP neural network, and forecasts the total amount, educational level quality and industrial layout of Shanxi Province from 2014 to 2020.Using the dynamic supply sources of scientific and technological innovation talents, this paper analyzes the contradiction gap between supply and demand, points out that the total quantity of scientific and technological innovation talents will still be insufficient, and the contradiction between supply and demand is obvious. 2) there is a structural contradiction between supply and demand of scientific and technological innovation talents, and the manufacturing industry.The high-tech industry has a great demand for scientific and technological innovation talents.The demand of scientific and technological innovation talents for the educational level is obviously higher than that for graduate students with high academic qualifications and below.Based on this, the government, universities and enterprises as the main body of scientific and technological innovation put forward the policy recommendations of talent training.The topic of this paper is based on the challenge to the talents of science and technology innovation put forward in the key period of the economic transformation and development of Shanxi Province, which makes the research object have a practical environmental basis, and makes this paper easy to determine the reasonable time limit when the data is statistically analyzed.At the same time also for Shanxi Province in the economic transformation of talent training pointed out the direction.The prediction accuracy of the selected grey neural network prediction model is higher than that of the single grey prediction model and the BP neural network prediction model, which makes the prediction results more practical and instructive.Even if the prediction is based on certain theoretical guidance and mathematical model, but it is affected by time factors, it will lead to the reduction of the accuracy of the prediction results, in order to achieve a smooth economic transformation,In the process of practice, the forecast results should be adjusted constantly, and the training strategy of scientific and technological innovation talents should be perfected.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：太原理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：C964.2

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