本文選題：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)效應(yīng)　切入點(diǎn)：引力模型　出處：《山東大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：進(jìn)入20世紀(jì)90年代,區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化快速發(fā)展起來(lái),尤其在以多哈談判為代表的多邊貿(mào)易談判陷入僵局后,更為靈活的FTA成為各國(guó)的優(yōu)先選擇,紛紛通過(guò)建立本國(guó)的FTA網(wǎng)絡(luò)為對(duì)外貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造更加優(yōu)惠、穩(wěn)固的環(huán)境。中國(guó)也適應(yīng)這一國(guó)際趨勢(shì),在加入WTO后著力推行FTA的建設(shè)。雖然起步略晚于日本、韓國(guó)等較為發(fā)達(dá)的國(guó)家,但中國(guó)的自貿(mào)區(qū)建設(shè)發(fā)展迅速,迄今已簽署并實(shí)施了14個(gè)自貿(mào)協(xié)定,成員國(guó)遍及各大洲,可謂碩果累累。在梳理中國(guó)FTA建設(shè)的發(fā)展進(jìn)程時(shí),本文將其分為了合作機(jī)制研究階段、自貿(mào)區(qū)建設(shè)初期及全面建設(shè)階段,并根據(jù)中國(guó)在各階段的主要舉措及實(shí)踐成果總結(jié)出各時(shí)期的特點(diǎn)。在合作機(jī)制研究階段,中國(guó)的主要目的是加強(qiáng)兩國(guó)間的政治經(jīng)濟(jì)互信并通過(guò)積極參與區(qū)域性經(jīng)貿(mào)會(huì)議積累談判經(jīng)驗(yàn);在自貿(mào)區(qū)建設(shè)初期,中國(guó)主要以發(fā)展中國(guó)家為自貿(mào)協(xié)定簽署對(duì)象,分階段分領(lǐng)域提高貿(mào)易自由化水平并建成了許多具有里程碑式意義的自貿(mào)區(qū);在全面建設(shè)階段,中國(guó)已經(jīng)有足夠的自貿(mào)區(qū)建設(shè)經(jīng)驗(yàn)及較高的開(kāi)放水平,因此簽署的自貿(mào)協(xié)定多為"一攬子協(xié)定"并根據(jù)兩國(guó)的貿(mào)易往來(lái)制定個(gè)性化協(xié)定,顯示出更為完善的FTA發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略。同時(shí),通過(guò)對(duì)中國(guó)自貿(mào)區(qū)的建設(shè)過(guò)程進(jìn)行分析,能夠更加清晰地理解中國(guó)建設(shè)立足周邊、契合"一帶一路"、范圍更廣的高標(biāo)準(zhǔn)FTA網(wǎng)絡(luò)的自貿(mào)區(qū)戰(zhàn)略的內(nèi)涵。盡管戰(zhàn)略正式提出時(shí)間較短,但通過(guò)對(duì)中國(guó)已建成及仍處于建設(shè)中的自貿(mào)區(qū)的分析發(fā)現(xiàn),此前的自貿(mào)區(qū)建設(shè)同樣具有相同的簽約國(guó)范圍廣、自由化水平不斷提升、契合"一帶一路"戰(zhàn)略等特點(diǎn),與2015年提出的戰(zhàn)略?xún)?nèi)涵一致。本文借助引力模型及2002年至2015年中國(guó)FTA的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)FTA戰(zhàn)略的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,中國(guó)FTA的建設(shè)對(duì)于雙邊貿(mào)易額的影響是正向的,即在貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造效應(yīng)及貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)移效應(yīng)共同存在的前提下,中國(guó)迄今建設(shè)的FTA整體上發(fā)揮了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)效應(yīng),肯定了中國(guó)自貿(mào)區(qū)戰(zhàn)略的積極意義。但是,中國(guó)自貿(mào)區(qū)建設(shè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)效應(yīng)盡管略高于日本,但仍是有限的。同時(shí),通過(guò)對(duì)四個(gè)建立較早的FTA的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析發(fā)現(xiàn),單個(gè)FTA的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)效應(yīng)不顯著,說(shuō)明中國(guó)自貿(mào)區(qū)的效應(yīng)仍有進(jìn)一步提升的空間。最后,本文結(jié)合中國(guó)自貿(mào)區(qū)建設(shè)的特點(diǎn)、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)效應(yīng)的實(shí)證結(jié)果及與日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)戰(zhàn)略的比較,提出了推進(jìn)中國(guó)FTA戰(zhàn)略的建議。中國(guó)應(yīng)在延續(xù)現(xiàn)有的FTA戰(zhàn)略的基礎(chǔ)上適當(dāng)提速,全力構(gòu)建FTA;推動(dòng)自貿(mào)區(qū)的進(jìn)一步升級(jí)談判,提高與自貿(mào)區(qū)成員國(guó)間的全方位、多領(lǐng)域開(kāi)放水平;借鑒日韓自貿(mào)區(qū)戰(zhàn)略的優(yōu)點(diǎn),完善自貿(mào)區(qū)相關(guān)機(jī)制,加強(qiáng)自貿(mào)區(qū)領(lǐng)域人才的培養(yǎng),打造優(yōu)質(zhì)團(tuán)隊(duì),提高地方政府及企業(yè)的參與度,讓企業(yè)在自貿(mào)區(qū)的實(shí)施中獲得更多實(shí)際收益。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of regional economic integration in the 1990s, especially after the multilateral trade negotiations, represented by the Doha negotiations, have reached an impasse, a more flexible FTA has become a priority choice for all countries. One after another, China has created a more favorable and stable environment for foreign trade through the establishment of its own FTA network. China has also adapted to this international trend and has made great efforts to promote the construction of FTA after its entry into WTO. Although it started slightly later than Japan, South Korea and other more developed countries, However, the construction of China's free trade zone has developed rapidly. So far, 14 free trade agreements have been signed and implemented, and the member countries are all over every continent, which is fruitful. In combing the development process of China's FTA construction, this paper divides it into the research stage of cooperation mechanism. At the beginning of the construction of the Free Trade Zone and the overall construction stage, and according to China's main measures and practical results in each stage, summed up the characteristics of each period. In the research stage of cooperation mechanism, The main purpose of China is to strengthen political and economic mutual trust between the two countries and to accumulate experience in negotiations through active participation in regional economic and trade meetings. In the early stages of the construction of the FTA, China mainly took developing countries as the object of signing the FTA. The level of trade liberalization has been raised in stages and areas, and many milestone free trade zones have been built. In the comprehensive construction phase, China already has sufficient experience in building free trade zones and a high level of opening up. Therefore, most of the free trade agreements signed are "package agreements" and individualized agreements are drawn up according to the trade exchanges between the two countries, which shows a more perfect FTA development strategy. At the same time, through the analysis of the construction process of China's free trade zone, To be able to understand more clearly the implications of China's free-trade zone strategy for building a perimeter based on "Belt and Road", a wider range of high-standard FTA networks, although the strategy has been formally proposed for a relatively short time. However, through the analysis of the free trade zones that China has built and is still under construction, it is found that the previous construction of the free trade zones also had the same characteristics as the wide range of signatory countries, the constant upgrading of the level of liberalization, and the agreement with the "Belt and Road" strategy. With the help of gravity model and relevant data of China's FTA from 2002 to 2015, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the economic effects of FTA strategy. The empirical results show that, The effect of China's FTA construction on bilateral trade volume is positive, that is, under the premise of the existence of trade creation effect and trade transfer effect, the FTA constructed by China so far has played an overall role in economic growth. The positive significance of China's free trade zone strategy is affirmed. However, the economic growth effect of China's free trade zone construction is still limited, although it is slightly higher than that of Japan. At the same time, through the empirical analysis of the economic effects of the four earlier FTA, it is found that, The economic growth effect of a single FTA is not significant, indicating that there is still room for further improvement in the effect of China's free trade zone. Finally, this paper combines the characteristics of the construction of China's free trade zone, the empirical results of the economic growth effect and the comparison with the strategy of Japan and South Korea Free Trade Zone. This paper puts forward some suggestions for promoting China's FTA strategy. China should speed up the development of the FTA strategy on the basis of continuing the existing FTA strategy, promote the negotiation of further upgrading of the FTAs, and improve the all-around and multi-field opening level with the FTA-member countries. Draw lessons from the advantages of the strategy of Japan and Korea Free Trade Zone, perfect the relevant mechanism of Free Trade Zone, strengthen the cultivation of talents in the field of Free Trade Zone, build high-quality teams, improve the participation of local governments and enterprises, and make enterprises gain more actual benefits in the implementation of the Free Trade Zone.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F752

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