本文選題：住宅市場　切入點：住宅需求　出處：《山西財經(jīng)大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：住宅水平的高低是衡量區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和居民生活水平的重要標志之一。太原市的住宅制度改革在深化城市經(jīng)濟體制改革的背景下得到了極大的推動，住宅市場已經(jīng)成為太原市市場體系的重要組成部分，住宅產(chǎn)業(yè)對城市經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻率不斷提高，其發(fā)展成果惠及了太原市大多數(shù)城鎮(zhèn)居民。與此同時，日益上漲的房價、保障住宅的缺口加大、住宅的投資性需求上升等這些問題讓我們意識到太原市住宅市場在供需均衡方面是存在問題的。因此，，為保證太原市住宅市場的健康發(fā)展，這些問題亟待解決。 本文將太原市住宅市場作為研究對象，以住宅市場供給與需求理論作為基礎，通過分析目前太原市住宅市場在供給和需求方面的狀況及其影響因素，來研究太原市住宅供需均衡問題及其原因，并對此提出針對性的改善建議。在分析太原市住宅供需總量上，本文采用吸納周期這一指標來代替空置率，這樣可以更為科學的反映住宅市場上供需總量的相對能力以及消化市場空置量的能力，在此基礎上，采用住宅市場供給需求比來進一步分析近年來太原市住宅供需總量的變化趨勢。在分析太原市商品住宅供需結(jié)構(gòu)上，本文通過建立住宅市場供需均衡模型，測算出太原市各年住宅供需均衡不匹配系數(shù)來判定近年來太原市住宅市場供需均衡狀態(tài)。 通過研究分析，得出的結(jié)論是太原市住宅市場在供需總量和供需結(jié)構(gòu)兩個方面都存在均衡問題。在住宅供需總量均衡方面，從2006年起太原市的商品住宅需求量一直高于供應量，處于供不應求的狀態(tài)。僅在2011年出現(xiàn)短暫的供需近于持平的狀態(tài)，這是因為2011年國家相繼出臺了一系列調(diào)控措施，對住宅價格的控制起到了明顯的作用，從而一定程度上降低了當年的住宅需求量；在住宅供需結(jié)構(gòu)均衡方面，太原市的住宅供需結(jié)構(gòu)在2006年處于相對均衡狀態(tài)，從2007年到2008年都處于一般失衡狀態(tài)，而在2010年其供需結(jié)構(gòu)出現(xiàn)嚴重失衡的狀態(tài)。 本文最后根據(jù)實證分析得出的結(jié)論，分析了目前太原市住宅市場供需均衡問題及原因。針對這些問題，文章從調(diào)整供需總量、改善供需結(jié)構(gòu)以及加強宏觀調(diào)控這三個方面提出了改善建議，以期促進太原市住宅市場供需均衡發(fā)展，從而達到促進太原市住宅市場良性健康發(fā)展的目的。
[Abstract]:The level of housing is one of the important symbols to measure the development of regional economy and the living standard of residents. The reform of housing system in Taiyuan has been greatly promoted under the background of deepening the reform of urban economic system. The housing market has become an important part of the market system in Taiyuan. The contribution of the housing industry to the urban economic growth has been increasing, and its development results have benefited most of the urban residents in Taiyuan. At the same time, the rising house prices, In order to ensure the healthy development of the housing market in Taiyuan, we realize that there are some problems in the supply and demand balance of the housing market in Taiyuan, such as the increasing gap of the guarantee housing and the rising demand for the investment of the housing. These problems need to be solved urgently. This paper takes the housing market of Taiyuan as the research object, taking the supply and demand theory of the housing market as the basis, through the analysis of the current situation of the supply and demand of the housing market in Taiyuan and its influencing factors. To study the problem of housing supply and demand balance in Taiyuan and its reasons, and put forward some suggestions to improve it. In the analysis of the total amount of housing supply and demand in Taiyuan, this paper adopts the index of absorption period to replace the vacancy rate. In this way, we can more scientifically reflect the relative capacity of the total supply and demand in the housing market and the ability to digest the vacant amount in the market. On this basis, This paper further analyzes the changing trend of the total supply and demand of housing in Taiyuan by using the ratio of supply and demand in the housing market. On the basis of analyzing the supply and demand structure of commercial housing in Taiyuan, this paper establishes the equilibrium model of supply and demand in the housing market. The mismatch coefficient of housing supply and demand equilibrium in Taiyuan is calculated to judge the supply and demand equilibrium of Taiyuan residential market in recent years. Through research and analysis, it is concluded that there are equilibrium problems in both supply and demand and supply and demand structure in Taiyuan housing market. Since 2006, the demand for commercial housing in Taiyuan has been higher than the supply, which is in a state where supply is short of supply. Only in 2011, there was a brief supply and demand close to the same state. This is because of the series of control measures introduced by the state on 2011. It has played an obvious role in controlling housing prices, thus reducing the demand for housing in those years to a certain extent. In terms of the equilibrium of housing supply and demand structure, the housing supply and demand structure of Taiyuan City was in a relatively balanced state in 2006. From 2007 to 2008, there was a general imbalance, but on 2010, the structure of supply and demand was seriously out of balance. Finally, according to the conclusions of empirical analysis, this paper analyzes the problems and causes of the supply and demand equilibrium in Taiyuan housing market. In view of these problems, the article adjusts the total supply and demand. In order to promote the balanced development of the supply and demand of the housing market in Taiyuan, the paper puts forward some suggestions on improving the structure of supply and demand and strengthening the macro-control, so as to achieve the purpose of promoting the healthy development of the housing market in Taiyuan.
【學位授予單位】：山西財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23

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本文編號：1618134