本文關(guān)鍵詞： 京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展 經(jīng)濟(jì)周期同步性 政策建議　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的同步性是衡量區(qū)域協(xié)同發(fā)展的綜合性指標(biāo),因此研究經(jīng)濟(jì)周期同步性對(duì)于一國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的制定意義深遠(yuǎn)。目前,國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者的研究主要集中在國(guó)家與國(guó)家之間經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的同步性上,也有部分學(xué)者針對(duì)某一個(gè)國(guó)家的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)周期同步性進(jìn)行研究,但后者的研究大多數(shù)是基于全國(guó)所有區(qū)域的角度,并沒有針對(duì)某一個(gè)具體的區(qū)域。因此,本文嘗試從具體的區(qū)域——京津冀區(qū)域出發(fā),對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期同步性進(jìn)行研究。本文選取我國(guó)1978-2015年間的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),采用HP濾波方法和馬爾科夫區(qū)制轉(zhuǎn)移模型對(duì)京津冀三地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期同步性進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,結(jié)合京津冀經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀以及同步性的現(xiàn)實(shí)條件,揭示京津冀三地經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的區(qū)制特征以及經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的同步程度。研究結(jié)果表明:第一,京津冀三地經(jīng)濟(jì)周期較為同步。主要變現(xiàn)為京津冀經(jīng)濟(jì)周期同步性系數(shù)較大并且兩兩之間較為接近,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)階段也大致相同,三地經(jīng)濟(jì)周期都具有不對(duì)稱性,均是“擴(kuò)張期”的持續(xù)期較長(zhǎng)。第二,京津冀經(jīng)濟(jì)周期同步具有一定差異性,其中河北省和北京市的同步性較弱,北京市和天津市的同步性較強(qiáng)。主要表現(xiàn)為:從京津冀地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期階段劃分來看,北京市和天津市的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期階段大體一致,而河北省的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期階段略有不同,其周期長(zhǎng)度較短,以及對(duì)京津冀區(qū)制的劃分,可以得出京津的“擴(kuò)張期”較長(zhǎng),河北省的“擴(kuò)張期”較短。第三,京津冀地區(qū)和全國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期同步性較強(qiáng)。主要表現(xiàn)為:根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期階段的劃分,二者較為相近,并且波動(dòng)幅度均較大;測(cè)算出的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期同步系數(shù)也較大,接近為1。本文基于以上實(shí)證的結(jié)論以及結(jié)合京津冀經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀,提出以下幾點(diǎn)建議:第一:應(yīng)該優(yōu)化河北省的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),提高在第三產(chǎn)業(yè)中的投資比例。第二,應(yīng)該努力加大向河北省政策傾斜的力度,構(gòu)建京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展的財(cái)政機(jī)制。第三,應(yīng)該減少京津冀地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的大幅波動(dòng),促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的平穩(wěn)運(yùn)行。
[Abstract]:The synchronism of economic cycle is a comprehensive index to measure regional coordinated development. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the synchronism of economic cycle for the formulation of macroeconomic policy in a country. The researches of domestic and foreign scholars mainly focus on the synchronism of economic cycles between countries, and some scholars also study the synchronism of regional economic cycles of a certain country. However, most of the research on the latter is based on the angle of all regions in the country, and it is not aimed at a specific region. Therefore, this paper tries to start from the specific region-Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. This paper selects the economic data from 1978 to 2015 in China, adopts HP filtering method and Markov region system transfer model to make an empirical study on the synchronism of economic cycle in the three regions of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. Combined with the present situation of the economic development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the realistic conditions of synchronism, this paper reveals the regional characteristics of the three economic cycles of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the degree of synchronization of the economic cycles. The results show that: first, The economic cycles of the three places of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are more synchronous. The main realization is that the synchronicity coefficient of the economic cycles of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is relatively large and close to each other, and the economic growth stage is roughly the same, and the economic cycles in the three places are all asymmetrical. Second, the synchronism of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic cycle is different to a certain extent, and the synchronism between Hebei and Beijing is weak. The synchronization between Beijing and Tianjin is relatively strong. The main manifestations are as follows: according to the division of the economic cycle stages in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the economic cycle stages of Beijing and Tianjin are roughly the same, while the economic cycle stages in Hebei Province are slightly different. The period is short, and the division of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region system shows that the "expansion period" in Beijing and Tianjin is longer, and the "expansion period" in Hebei Province is shorter. Third, The economic cycles in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and in the whole country are in strong synchronism. The main manifestations are: according to the division of the economic cycle stages, the two are relatively close, and the amplitude of fluctuation is large; the measured economic cycle synchronization coefficient is also larger. Based on the above conclusions and the current situation of economic development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei province, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: first, we should optimize the industrial structure of Hebei Province and increase the proportion of investment in the tertiary industry. Efforts should be made to increase the inclination to the policies of Hebei Province and to build a fiscal mechanism for the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. Thirdly, the sharp fluctuations of the economic cycle in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region should be reduced and the smooth operation of the economic cycle should be promoted.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F127

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