本文關(guān)鍵詞： 經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊 國際通道 貿(mào)易 貿(mào)易引力模型　出處：《昆明理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：2002年亞洲銀行發(fā)起的大湄公河次區(qū)域(GMS)經(jīng)濟(jì)合作機(jī)制,以及2010年中國—東盟自由貿(mào)易區(qū)(CAFTA)的正式成立,對推進(jìn)亞洲區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化進(jìn)程具有重要的里程碑意義。目前,中國同中東、歐洲和南亞的貿(mào)易往來,主要有兩條路可走,即陸上“絲綢之路”和海上“絲綢之路”�，F(xiàn)階段,海上“絲綢之路”需經(jīng)過東南部地區(qū)的港口,沿南海繞道馬六甲海峽才能進(jìn)入印度洋。若GMS框架下的中老泰經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊建成,再連通東西經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊至緬甸的港口毛淡棉,則中國對中東、歐洲和南亞的貿(mào)易往來可以直接通過昆曼公路和東西經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊,直達(dá)毛淡棉港進(jìn)入印度洋,這樣不僅可以帶動我國西南地區(qū)和中南半島經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,在戰(zhàn)時還可以打破馬六甲海峽對我國的海上航道封鎖。因此,在區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的背景下,為落實(shí)我國“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略和加強(qiáng)周邊外交,需要對GMS框架下的中老泰經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀、建設(shè)中存在的問題進(jìn)行梳理和分析,并在此基礎(chǔ)上提出一些建設(shè)該經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊的對策建議。本文從亞洲開發(fā)銀行發(fā)起的GMS區(qū)域“三縱兩橫”五條經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊背景出發(fā),選取其中一條縱向的中老泰經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊作為研究對象,基于雙邊貿(mào)易的視角,分為四個部分由淺入深、由定性到定量,對該條經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊的建設(shè)進(jìn)行了較全面的分析。第一部分,通過對國內(nèi)外學(xué)者相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的解讀分析,初步形成了本文的研究方法:先通過國際通道相關(guān)理論對中老泰經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行定性及定量分析,再從貿(mào)易視角出發(fā)利用貿(mào)易引力模型對經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊建設(shè)中相關(guān)變量之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行建模分析;第二部分,利用國際通道的區(qū)位理論、點(diǎn)軸開發(fā)理論和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)層次演替理論從自然區(qū)位、地理區(qū)位和交通區(qū)位三個角度分析了走廊沿線國家(地區(qū))的復(fù)合區(qū)位條件、可選擇的初步發(fā)展模式、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演替過程、目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平和所處的工業(yè)化階段,并進(jìn)一步分析了區(qū)域內(nèi)相關(guān)國家(地區(qū))之間的貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀,還對中老泰經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊建設(shè)存在的問題進(jìn)行了探討;第三部分,在傳統(tǒng)貿(mào)易引力模型的基礎(chǔ)上,利用走廊沿線相關(guān)國家(地區(qū))的貿(mào)易流量作為被解釋變量,選取貿(mào)易雙方的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模、人口數(shù)量、“空間距離”、是否相鄰、非農(nóng)產(chǎn)業(yè)比重等作為解釋變量建立計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,研究結(jié)果表明,對貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生正向效應(yīng)的因素有:貿(mào)易雙方的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模、人口數(shù)量、貿(mào)易雙方擁有共同的邊界(地緣優(yōu)勢)以及貿(mào)易雙方之間的產(chǎn)業(yè)優(yōu)勢互補(bǔ),而貿(mào)易雙方的“距離”則對貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生負(fù)向效應(yīng);第四部分,綜合前文的理論和實(shí)證分析,我們結(jié)合具體情況對建設(shè)中老泰經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊的發(fā)展途徑給予相應(yīng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:In 2002, the Asian Bank launched the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) Economic Cooperation Mechanism, and the CAFTA-China-ASEAN Free Trade area (CAFTAA) was established in 2010. At present, China's trade relations with the Middle East, Europe and South Asia have two main routes to go. That is, the "Silk Road" on land and the "Silk Road" on the sea. At this stage, the "Silk Road" at sea has to pass through ports in the southeast. If the Sino-Laotai Economic Corridor under the GMS framework is completed and then connects the East-West Economic Corridor to the Myanmar port of Maotam, then China will have access to the Middle East. The trade between Europe and South Asia can enter the Indian Ocean directly through the Kunman Road and the East-West Economic Corridor, which can not only promote the economic development of Southwest China and Indochina Peninsula. Therefore, in the context of regional economic integration, in order to implement our "Belt and Road" strategy and strengthen peripheral diplomacy. It is necessary to sort out and analyze the current situation and problems in the construction of the Sino-Lao-Thai economic corridor under the framework of GMS. On this basis, some countermeasures and suggestions for the construction of the economic corridor are put forward. This paper starts from the background of "three columns, two sides" and five economic corridors in the GMS region initiated by the Asian Development Bank. Select one of the vertical Sino-Lao Thai economic corridor as the research object, based on the perspective of bilateral trade, divided into four parts from shallow to deep, from qualitative to quantitative. The construction of this economic corridor has carried on the more comprehensive analysis. The first part, through the domestic and foreign scholars related literature interpretation and analysis. Preliminary formed the research method of this paper: first through the international channel related theory to the development of the Sino-Lao-Thai Economic Corridor qualitative and quantitative analysis. Then from the perspective of trade, we use the trade gravity model to model and analyze the relationship between the related variables in the construction of economic corridor. The second part uses the location theory of international channel, the theory of point-axis development and the theory of hierarchy succession of industrial structure from natural location. Geographical location and traffic location analysis of the corridor along the country (region) of the complex location conditions, the choice of the initial development model, industrial structure succession process. At present, the level of economic development and industrialization stage, and further analysis of the status quo of trade among countries (regions) in the region, and also discussed the existing problems in the construction of Sino-Lao-Thai economic corridor; The third part, on the basis of the traditional trade gravity model, uses the trade flow of the relevant countries (regions) along the corridor as the explanatory variable, selects the economic scale, the population quantity and the "space distance" of both sides of the trade. Whether adjacent, non-agricultural industry proportion as an explanatory variable to establish an econometric model for empirical analysis, the results show that the positive effects of trade factors are: the economic size of both sides of the trade, the number of population. Both sides of trade have common boundary (geographical advantage) and complementary industrial advantages between them, while the "distance" of both sides of trade has negative effect on trade. In the 4th part, synthesizing the theoretical and empirical analysis above, we give some policy suggestions on the development of the economic corridor in China and Thailand.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F113

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