本文關鍵詞：海峽兩岸貨幣政策差異與協(xié)調機制研究　出處：《福州大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 海峽兩岸 政策差異 貨幣政策協(xié)調 貨幣政策傳導機制 向量自回歸模型

【摘要】：經濟全球化使一國經濟政策運行無法獨善其身,“溢出效應”和“溢入效應”制約著政策目標的實現。因此,政策協(xié)調成為各國的理性選擇。貨幣政策協(xié)調是指國家(或地區(qū))之間協(xié)調各自貨幣政策以消除政策對彼此的負面溢出效應,最終實現經濟目標的行為。受到歷史因素影響,大陸與臺灣地區(qū)在經濟發(fā)展水平、制度安排、貨幣管理機構政策偏好等方面存在差異,導致兩岸貨幣政策必然存在不相協(xié)調的現象。建立符合兩岸共同利益的貨幣政策協(xié)調機制,不僅有助于將兩岸貨幣管理機構高層次溝通交流貫穿貨幣政策始末,化解不必要的政策矛盾和利益沖突,更有助于提升各自的政策效果,實現區(qū)域經濟的合作共贏。本文圍繞海峽兩岸貨幣政策差異與協(xié)調這一主線,通過縝密理論論證和構建計量模型進行探討。筆者明確提出,海峽兩岸貨幣政策差異主要表現在貨幣政策運行環(huán)境、貨幣政策工具使用偏好、貨幣政策傳導機制、貨幣政策實施效果等方面,并采用定性研究和定量研究相結合的方法,對此展開詳實論述。在此基礎上,本文以經濟增長指標和通貨膨脹指標作為被解釋變量,利用海峽兩岸1990至2013年的數據建立向量自回歸模型,通過實證方法來驗證具體的差異對政策效果的不同影響。上述研究表明,臺灣地區(qū)在貨幣政策運行環(huán)境的深度和廣度上優(yōu)于大陸,大陸偏好使用數量型工具而臺灣地區(qū)更多使用價格型工具,大陸貨幣政策傳導機制以信貸渠道為主而臺灣地區(qū)側重貨幣渠道,大陸貨幣政策對促進經濟增長的效果較好,臺灣地區(qū)貨幣政策對抑制通脹的效果更佳。加強海峽兩岸貨幣政策之間的協(xié)調是解決政策差異問題的必經之路。自1987年以來,海峽兩岸貨幣合作日趨深化,大陸和臺灣地區(qū)也具備了經濟同周期性、相互依存性、外部沖擊對稱性等政策協(xié)調的基礎性條件。因此,本文建議海峽兩岸貨幣政策協(xié)調應當充分考慮兩岸關系的特殊性,配合政治經濟發(fā)展形勢,由易到難,由非正式到正式,由民間到官方,由部分協(xié)調到全面協(xié)調,逐步推進。注重貨幣政策協(xié)調規(guī)則性機制和相機性機制設構,建立并完善信息共享、爭端解決、風險防范等相關機制。
[Abstract]:Economic globalization makes the operation of a country's economic policy unavoidable, and "spillover effect" and "spillover effect" restrict the realization of policy goal. Policy coordination is the rational choice of countries. Monetary policy coordination refers to the coordination of monetary policies between countries (or regions) in order to eliminate the negative spillover effects of policies on each other. Under the influence of historical factors, there are differences in the level of economic development, institutional arrangements, policy preferences of monetary management agencies between the mainland and Taiwan. The establishment of a monetary policy coordination mechanism that conforms to the common interests of the two sides of the strait is not only conducive to the high-level communication and exchange between the two monetary management agencies throughout the monetary policy. To resolve unnecessary policy conflicts and conflicts of interest will help to improve the effectiveness of their respective policies and achieve win-win regional economic cooperation. This paper focuses on the differences and coordination of cross-strait monetary policy. The author clearly points out that the difference of monetary policy between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is mainly manifested in the operating environment of monetary policy and the preference of the use of monetary policy tools. Monetary policy transmission mechanism, monetary policy implementation effect and so on, and uses the qualitative research and the quantitative research unifies the method, carries on the detailed elaboration to this. On this basis. In this paper, the economic growth index and inflation index are taken as the explanatory variables, and the vector autoregressive model is established by using the data from the two sides of the Taiwan Strait from 1990 to 2013. Through the empirical method to verify the different effects of specific differences on the policy effect. The above research shows that Taiwan is better than the mainland in the depth and breadth of the monetary policy environment. The mainland prefers to use quantitative tools while Taiwan uses more price-based tools. The transmission mechanism of monetary policy in mainland China is mainly credit channels and Taiwan focuses on monetary channels. Mainland monetary policy has a better effect on promoting economic growth. Monetary policy in Taiwan is better at curbing inflation. Strengthening coordination between monetary policies across the Taiwan Strait is the only way to address policy differences. Since 1987. The monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is deepening day by day, and the mainland and Taiwan also have the basic conditions for the coordination of policies such as economic periodicity, interdependence, symmetry of external shocks and so on. This paper suggests that the coordination of monetary policy between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait should fully consider the particularity of cross-strait relations, coordinate with the political and economic development situation, from easy to difficult, from informal to formal, from private to official. From partial coordination to overall coordination, we should pay attention to the establishment of monetary policy coordination, regular mechanism and camera mechanism, and establish and perfect the relevant mechanisms such as information sharing, dispute settlement, risk prevention and so on.
【學位授予單位】：福州大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F821.0

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