發(fā)布時間：2018-01-03 02:31

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：長江感潮河段水位過程預(yù)報模型研究　出處：《南京師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 感潮河段 水位過程 日平均水位 潮波水位 預(yù)報模型

【摘要】：長江感潮河段是指從安徽大通水文站至江蘇徐六涇之間的河段,全長600余公里,這一河段是長江的一個重要組成部分,該河段流域在社會和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中有著明顯的區(qū)位與資源優(yōu)勢,對國家和區(qū)域經(jīng)濟發(fā)展具有非常重要的意義。由于感潮河段周圍地區(qū)地勢較為平坦、地面高程較低,在上游徑流和下游潮汐的共同作用下極容易出現(xiàn)洪澇災(zāi)害。因此,對感潮河段水位過程預(yù)報研究長期以來都受到地理學(xué)、水文學(xué)等方面的專家和學(xué)者的關(guān)注和重視。但現(xiàn)有的感潮河段水位過程預(yù)報模型和方法存在資料要求高、穩(wěn)定性差、求解繁瑣、預(yù)測精度低等問題,基于此,本文試圖提出一種簡單易用、預(yù)測精度較高且適合于感潮河段水位過程預(yù)報的模型。 感潮河段與一般河段不同,其水位同時受到河流動力和潮汐動力的作用,因此,水位過程的變化更為復(fù)雜。為了更準(zhǔn)確地模擬感潮河段水位過程,本文將感潮河段水位分離成日平均水位和潮波水位兩個部分,分別研究日平均水位預(yù)報模型和潮波水位預(yù)報模型,然后,將二者合并得到感潮河段水位過程預(yù)報模型。 本文對感潮河段日平均水位預(yù)報模型構(gòu)建方法進(jìn)行了研究,通過研究得到了僅考慮上游徑流、考慮上游徑流和外海潮差兩種日平均水位的預(yù)報模型,并將模型應(yīng)用于南京站和江陰站進(jìn)行驗證,在不同站點驗證過程中采用回歸分析方法確定模型基本方程中的各項參數(shù)后進(jìn)行預(yù)報。驗證結(jié)果表明考慮徑流和潮差的模型預(yù)測誤差比僅考慮徑流的模型預(yù)測誤差要低,其中南京站考慮徑流與潮差的模型預(yù)測平均誤差降低2cm左右。 在感潮河段潮波水位預(yù)報模型構(gòu)建的研究中,以傳統(tǒng)天文潮水位預(yù)報模型為基礎(chǔ),確定了徑流量與天文潮水位預(yù)報模型中系數(shù)之間的關(guān)系基本形式為二次多項式,構(gòu)建了感潮河段潮波水位預(yù)報模型的基本形式,采用Fortran語言開發(fā)實現(xiàn)該模型,并將其應(yīng)用于南京站和江陰站的潮波水位預(yù)報中進(jìn)行驗證,驗證結(jié)果表明在天文潮水位預(yù)報模型中考慮徑流作用后,受徑流影響大的南京站潮波水位預(yù)報平均誤差比傳統(tǒng)模型減少5cm左右,高低潮時平均誤差減少2分鐘；受徑流影響較小的江陰站平均誤差減少約1cm,高低潮時平均誤差減少1分鐘。 本研究在感潮河段日平均水位和潮波水位預(yù)報模型構(gòu)建的基礎(chǔ)上,將二者疊加得到感潮河段水位過程預(yù)報模型,采用Fortran語言實現(xiàn)模型,以南京站和江陰站為例,對本文所構(gòu)建的水位過程預(yù)報模型和傳統(tǒng)水位預(yù)報模型進(jìn)行驗證和比較,驗證結(jié)果表明,南京站本文模型潮位預(yù)報平均誤差與傳統(tǒng)模型相比減少約3cm,高低潮時平均預(yù)報誤差減少約2分鐘；江陰站本文模型2003年預(yù)測2004年水位過程時,本文模型潮位平均誤差比傳統(tǒng)模型減少3cm,高低潮時平均誤差減少約1分鐘。 通過對感潮河段水位過程預(yù)報模型的研究和實驗驗證,證明了：(1)潮波上溯對感潮河段日平均水位的變化影響明顯,在日平均水位預(yù)報模型中考慮外海潮差因素可以提高預(yù)報精度；(2)河流動力對感潮河段潮波水位的變化產(chǎn)生作用,離大通水文站距離越近,徑流的影響越明顯,在潮波水位預(yù)報中增加對徑流量這一因素的考慮可以改善潮位的預(yù)測精度和高低潮位時刻的預(yù)報準(zhǔn)確度。
[Abstract]:Tidal reach of the Yangtze River is from Anhui Datong hydrometric station to Jiangsu between six Xu Jing River, a total length of 600 kilometers, the river is an important part of the Yangtze River, the river basin with location and resource advantages in the development of society and economy, has very important significance to national and regional the development of economy. Because of tidal river area around the relatively flat terrain, the ground elevation is low, very prone to floods in the interaction of upstream runoff and downstream tide. Therefore, the tidal river stage forecasting research has long been affected by geography, hydrology and other experts and scholars and attach much importance to it. The water level of the tidal river existing process prediction model and method has high data requirements, poor stability, low prediction accuracy is very complex, based on this, this paper tries to put forward a kind of simple and easy to use, accurate prediction A model of high degree and suitable for the prediction of water level process in tidal river.
Tidal river is different from the general River, the water level at the same time by river power and tidal power, therefore, changes in the water level process is more complex. In order to accurately simulate the tidal river water level, the water level of the tidal river separating Chengri average water level and tidal waves of water two parts, respectively, on average water level forecasting model of tidal wave and water level forecasting model, and then, the two combined tidal river stage forecasting model.
The tidal reach daily average water level forecasting model construction method is studied, through the research only consider the upstream runoff prediction model of upstream runoff and tidal two daily average water level, and will be in the NanJing Railway Station and Jiangyin station to verify the application of the model in different site verification process using the regression analysis method to determine the parameters of the basic equation in the model prediction. The verification results show that the consideration of runoff and tidal range prediction errors than only considering the runoff forecasting error is lower, the NanJing Railway Station runoff and tidal range model considering the average prediction error is decreased by about 2cm.
In the study of the tidal river tidal wave to construct water level forecasting model in the sense that the traditional astronomical tide forecasting model as the basis, to determine the diameter and flow coefficient between astronomical tide level forecast model of the relationship between the basic form of two polynomial, construct the basic form of tidal river tide level forecast model, using Fortran language development and implementation of the model, and verify the tidal wave water level forecast of its application to the NanJing Railway Station and Jiangyin station, the verification results show that the water level in the tide prediction model considering the effect of runoff after the senior high school entrance examination, affected by the runoff average tidal wave water level forecast error of NanJing Railway Station reduced about 5cm compared with the traditional model, the high and low tide when the average error is reduced by 2 min; affected by the runoff of Jiangyin station average error reduction of about 1cm, the high and low tide when the average error reduction of 1 minutes.
Based on the construction of the tidal reach daily average water level and tidal water level forecast model, the two superimposed by tidal river stage forecasting model, using Fortran language model, to the NanJing Railway Station and Jiangyin station as an example, the water level of the established forecast model and the traditional water level forecasting model is verified and the comparison results show that the model of NanJing Railway Station tide prediction average error reduction compared with the traditional model about 3cm, the high and low tide when the average prediction error is reduced by about 2 minutes; Jiangyin station in 2003 2004 forecast water level process model in this paper, the model of tidal reductions in average error than the traditional 3cm model, the high and low tide when the average error is reduced by about 1 minutes.
According to the research and experiment of tidal river stage forecasting model, proved that: (1) tidal wave back change on tidal reach daily average water level effect is obvious, the daily average water level forecasting model considering tidal difference factors senior high school entrance examination can improve the prediction accuracy; (2) the change of tidal river tidal river power the water level of the wave function, from Datong hydrological station distance closer, the more obvious the influence of runoff, increase the factors of runoff considerations can improve the prediction accuracy and low tide tide time forecast accuracy in the tidal water level forecast.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：P338

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 張青山;劉智力;鮑志偉;吳慧秀;杜中;;鴨綠江感潮河段洪水預(yù)報模型的修正[J];遼東學(xué)院學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版);2012年02期

2 李國芳;譚亞;張秀菊;;感潮河段上游流量對潮位預(yù)報的影響[J];河海大學(xué)學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版);2006年02期

3 張小琴;包為民;馬德蓮;;雙向波水位演算模型參數(shù)動態(tài)修正[J];河海大學(xué)學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版);2010年05期

4 朱琰;水艷;林剛毅;程文輝;;長江下游鎮(zhèn)江至吳淞段潮位相關(guān)途徑預(yù)報方法[J];河海大學(xué)學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版);2011年06期

5 李改肖;孫新軒;劉雁春;沈康;;潮汐調(diào)和常數(shù)的變化趨勢研究[J];海洋測繪;2010年03期

6 茅澤育,馬吉明,佘云童,蔣炳芳,裴文林;感潮河段潮流數(shù)值計算[J];海洋工程;2003年04期

7 宋志堯,嚴(yán)以新,茅麗華;潮汐調(diào)和分析的一種算法[J];海洋工程;1997年03期

8 林勛勵;長江口天文潮預(yù)報修正的一種方法[J];海洋預(yù)報服務(wù);1985年01期

9 丁峰,胡鳳彬,周建林,張金倫,李國芳;徑流的河口潮位預(yù)報方法研究[J];現(xiàn)代交通技術(shù);2005年03期

10 侯成程;朱建榮;;長江河口潮流界與徑流量定量關(guān)系研究[J];華東師范大學(xué)學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版);2013年05期

，

本文編號：1371997