本文關(guān)鍵詞：貨幣政策效應(yīng)的區(qū)域差異研究　出處：《吉林大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 貨幣政策 區(qū)域差異 SVAR MS-VAR

【摘要】：區(qū)域發(fā)展不均衡是當(dāng)前中國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的一個(gè)突出問題,貨幣當(dāng)局一直運(yùn)用宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的兩大調(diào)控手段即貨幣政策和財(cái)政政策來實(shí)現(xiàn)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)體制的改革,貨幣政策逐漸的成為調(diào)控我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的主要手段,其對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響越來越大。多年來,我國為了實(shí)現(xiàn)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)目標(biāo),一直實(shí)施統(tǒng)一的貨幣政策去維護(hù)國家整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定,注重整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,而忽視了國家內(nèi)部即各地區(qū)之間所存在的眾多經(jīng)濟(jì)差異,沒有及時(shí)地采取有針對(duì)性的措施,這必然會(huì)導(dǎo)致區(qū)域之間的經(jīng)濟(jì)差異越來越大。這不僅會(huì)阻礙我國整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,而且更會(huì)破壞整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定,影響到人民的正常生活。貨幣政策的目標(biāo)不僅僅是為了穩(wěn)定國家整體經(jīng)濟(jì),更應(yīng)該重視各區(qū)域間的經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。因此,貨幣政策效應(yīng)是否存在區(qū)域差異,對(duì)于不同區(qū)域的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響有何不同以及導(dǎo)致這種區(qū)域差異的影響因素都是非常值得探討的問題。本文首先通過歸納關(guān)于貨幣政策效應(yīng)區(qū)域差異的國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn),對(duì)研究這一問題的諸多角度和方法進(jìn)行總結(jié)。然后通過貨幣政策有效性,最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論以及貨幣政策的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制三個(gè)方面對(duì)我國的區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展進(jìn)行初步理論分析,再通過構(gòu)建線性的SVAR模型和非線性的MS-VAR模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,利用1996年-2015年的相關(guān)季度數(shù)據(jù),分別從整體和不同經(jīng)濟(jì)階段,研究貨幣政策沖擊對(duì)我國東部、東北部、西部和中部四個(gè)區(qū)域的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出和通貨膨脹的影響程度和差異大小。研究結(jié)果表明:第一,貨幣政策效應(yīng)對(duì)我國不同區(qū)域的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出和通貨膨脹確實(shí)存在一定的區(qū)域差異。第二,短期內(nèi)實(shí)行擴(kuò)張性的貨幣政策均會(huì)促進(jìn)我國各個(gè)區(qū)域的通貨膨脹和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,并隨著時(shí)間的推移,貨幣政策的作用逐漸減弱,最終使各區(qū)域的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展趨于穩(wěn)定。第三,在不同經(jīng)濟(jì)增長階段,貨幣政策效應(yīng)對(duì)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出和通貨膨脹的影響是存在差異的。相較于經(jīng)濟(jì)低速增長階段,在經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長階段實(shí)施擴(kuò)張性貨幣政策對(duì)于通貨膨脹的促進(jìn)作用更為有效,并且對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出的負(fù)向影響較大。第四,相較于其他區(qū)域,貨幣政策對(duì)我國東部這類發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出和通貨膨脹的影響最為顯著。最后,本文針對(duì)研究結(jié)果對(duì)造成這一問題的原因進(jìn)行了分析并提出了一些政策建議。
[Abstract]:Unbalanced regional development is a prominent problem in the development of Chinese macroeconomic, monetary authorities have been using the two macroeconomic control means that monetary and fiscal policies to achieve the economic development of China. With the reform of economic system, the main means for the regulation of the economic development of our country's monetary policy gradually, the the impact on economic development more and more. Over the years, in order to achieve our goal of macro economy, monetary policy has been implemented to safeguard the country's overall economic stability, pay attention to the overall economic development, while ignoring the many differences between countries within the region, no timely targeted the measures, which will inevitably lead to economic disparities between regions more and more. This will not only hinder the development of China's economy as a whole, but also undermine the overall economic stability, affect people The normal life of the people. The goal of monetary policy is not only to stabilize the national economy as a whole, should pay more attention to the inter regional economic coordinated development. Therefore, the effect of monetary policy exist regional differences, is very worthy of discussion for the different economic effect of different regions and lead to influence the regional difference factors. Firstly, through the inductive effect of regional differences on monetary policy of domestic and foreign literatures, on various angles to research these problems and methods are summarized. Then the effectiveness of monetary policy, the preliminary theoretical analysis of regional economic development of our country's three aspects of the transmission mechanism of the theory of optimum currency area, monetary policy, and then through the empirical analysis MS-VAR model and nonlinear SVAR model construction of the linear correlation using the data of 1996 -2015 quarter, respectively from the overall and not With the economic stage, study the impact of monetary policy on China's eastern, northeastern, the influence and the differences between the four regions of Western and central economic output and inflation size. The results show that: first, the effect of monetary policy in different regions of China's economic output and inflation is different in different regions. In second, the implementation of the expansionary monetary policy in the short term will promote inflation and economic growth in various regions of our country, and with the passage of time, the role of monetary policy gradually weakened, the regional economic development tends to be stable. Third, in different stages of economic growth, the effect of monetary policy on the regional economic output and inflation exist the difference. Compared to the slow economic growth phase, expansionary monetary policy to promote inflation is more effective in the stage of rapid economic growth, and And the economic output had great negative effect. Fourth, compared to other regions, the impact of monetary policy on China's eastern developed areas of this kind of economic output and inflation is the most significant. Finally, according to the research results on the causes of this problem are analyzed and put forward some policy suggestions.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0;F127

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