本文關鍵詞：中國—歐盟建立自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的經(jīng)濟效應研究　出處：《中國海洋大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 中國-歐盟 自由貿(mào)易區(qū) 可行性 經(jīng)濟效應

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟全球化和區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化是當今世界經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要趨勢,但是全球經(jīng)濟危機之后,經(jīng)濟增長乏力,WT0主導下的“多哈回合談判”進程停滯不前,多邊貿(mào)易體制存在著一定的實施困難,這使得各國更致力于參與到雙邊自由貿(mào)易區(qū)上來。區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化正逐漸成為當今全球經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的一個重要特征。此外,美國主導推動的TPP和TTIP,使中國處于更加嚴峻復雜的外部環(huán)境中�；诖�,中國也正在加快以自身為主導的自貿(mào)區(qū)談判,依托自身的經(jīng)濟實力,將自貿(mào)區(qū)的建設思路拓展到歐洲地區(qū),借助中歐FTA的建立,以擺脫當前的被動局面。當前中國發(fā)展自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的條件日益成熟。中歐經(jīng)貿(mào)關系是世界上規(guī)模最大、最具活力的經(jīng)貿(mào)關系之一。中國與歐盟保持良好的貿(mào)易關系,中國在歐盟貿(mào)易伙伴中占據(jù)第二,歐盟則長時間在中國的貿(mào)易伙伴中排首位。中國和歐盟對于彼此的經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易發(fā)展都有著極為重要的戰(zhàn)略意義。2013年11月,中歐本著友好互信的關系開啟投資談判,這成為雙方自貿(mào)區(qū)協(xié)定的良好積墊。中歐自貿(mào)區(qū)的議題也在升溫。中國歐盟間簽署FTA對雙方的經(jīng)濟和社會發(fā)展均有著積極的作用。中國應借此機會積極推進雙邊自貿(mào)區(qū)建設,深化自由貿(mào)易,以爭取更加長足的發(fā)展。在以上觀點和背景的基礎上,本文綜合運用國際經(jīng)濟學、計量經(jīng)濟學和國際貿(mào)易學的相關理論,以中國和歐盟建立自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的經(jīng)濟效應作為研究的對象,系統(tǒng)分析了雙方建立自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的可行性,并對自貿(mào)區(qū)建立后的經(jīng)濟效應進行了定量和定性分析,進而提出對策建議。文章首先對相關的理論進行了介紹,為分析中國和歐盟的貿(mào)易可行性以及進一步研究其經(jīng)濟效應打下了理論基礎。隨后,文章對中國和歐盟自貿(mào)區(qū)構建的可行性進行了分析,計算了中歐產(chǎn)品的顯示性比較優(yōu)勢指數(shù)、經(jīng)濟開放度指數(shù)以及貿(mào)易結合度指數(shù),借助計算結果,分析了雙方經(jīng)貿(mào)現(xiàn)狀,并對雙方的貿(mào)易潛力進行了測算。同時,文章還對中歐雙方構建FTA的挑戰(zhàn)進行了分析。緊接著,文章運用局部均衡分析法,對中國和歐盟建立自貿(mào)區(qū)后的經(jīng)濟效應進行研究,通過建立模型,估算了貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造和貿(mào)易轉移效應,并在理論層面對動態(tài)經(jīng)濟效應進行了研究。最后,文章從中國的立場出發(fā),提出了建立中歐自貿(mào)區(qū)進程中的對策建議,求同存異,爭取共贏。以此前的學術研究的成果作為基礎,本文在以下幾方面實現(xiàn)了創(chuàng)新：首先選題具有前沿性,雙方自貿(mào)區(qū)的聯(lián)合可行性研究剛剛啟動,本文的選題在一定程度上彌補了目前國內有關研究非常少這一空白；其次,本文在分析自貿(mào)區(qū)的經(jīng)濟效應時選取了多個不同的角度,目前大多數(shù)的國內學者只是從理論的角度對自由貿(mào)易區(qū)的經(jīng)濟效應的進行解釋,本文在研究經(jīng)濟效應時,在理論層面運用局部均衡的分析方法,同時使用了靜態(tài)效應的模擬方案估算了貿(mào)易創(chuàng)造效應和貿(mào)易轉移效應。最后,通過逐步的研究,找出雙方在構建自貿(mào)區(qū)的過程中所面臨的挑戰(zhàn),針對挑戰(zhàn),提出相應的對策,有計劃、有步驟地推動雙方自貿(mào)區(qū)的建設,深化互利共贏的中歐經(jīng)貿(mào)關系。
[Abstract]:Economic globalization and regional economic integration is an important trend in the development of the world economy, but the global economic crisis, sluggish economic growth, led by WT0 of the Doha round process stalled multilateral trade system there are certain difficulties in the implementation, which makes the world more committed to participate in the bilateral free trade area. Regional economic integration is becoming an important feature of the global economic development. In addition, the US led TPP and TTIP have made China in a more complex and complex external environment. Based on this, China is also speeding up its own free trade area negotiations, relying on its own economic strength, expanding the construction of free trade area in Europe, and with the establishment of FTA in China and Europe, to get rid of the current passive situation. At present, the conditions for the development of free trade zone in China are becoming more and more mature. China EU economic and trade relations are one of the largest and most dynamic economic and trade relations in the world. China has a good trade relationship with the EU, China occupies second of the EU trade partners, and the EU has been the first in China's trading partners for a long time. China and the EU have a very important strategic significance for each other's economic and trade development. In November 2013, the EU relations friendship and mutual trust to open negotiations on investment, this is a good product pad both free trade agreement. The issues of the China EU free trade zone are also warming up. The signing of the FTA between the EU and China has a positive effect on both the economic and social development of the two sides. China should take this opportunity to actively promote the construction of the bilateral free trade zone and deepen the free trade in order to strive for more rapid development. Based on the above ideas and background, this paper uses the theory of international economics, and the theory of international trade, economic effect to China and the establishment of a free trade zone as the research object, systematically analyzes the feasibility of the establishment of a free trade area, and the economic effect after the establishment of the FTA is analyzed the quantitative and qualitative analysis, then puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions. The article first introduces the relevant theories, which lays a theoretical foundation for the analysis of the trade feasibility of China and the EU and the further study of its economic effects. Then, the feasibility of construction of China and the EU FTA are analyzed, our products revealed comparative advantage index, economic openness index and trade integration index was calculated with the calculation results, analysis of the status quo and potential of bilateral trade, bilateral trade was calculated. At the same time, the paper also analyzes the challenges of building FTA between China and Europe. Then, by using partial equilibrium analysis, we study the economic effects of China and the EU after the establishment of the free trade area. We estimate the trade creation and trade transfer effects by establishing models, and study the dynamic economic effects at the theoretical level. Finally, from the standpoint of China, the article puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions in the process of establishing the Sino EU free trade area, seeking common differences and striving for a win-win situation. In order to study the academic achievements as the foundation, this paper makes innovations in the following aspects: firstly the topic is advanced, a joint feasibility study of both the FTA has just started, this topic to a certain extent make up for the current domestic relevant research very little of this gap; secondly, this paper selects the different angles in the the economic effect analysis of FTA, at present most of the domestic scholars only from the perspective of theory of economic effects on the free trade area of the explanation, based on the study of the economic effect, at the theoretical level, using analysis method of partial equilibrium, while the use of the simulation program to calculate the static effect of trade creation effect and trade diversion effect. Finally, through gradual research, we find out the challenges faced by the two sides in building the free trade area, and put forward corresponding countermeasures for the challenges, plan and step by step to promote the construction of bilateral free trade zones, and deepen mutually beneficial and win-win Sino EU economic and trade relations.
【學位授予單位】：中國海洋大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F752.7

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