中國旅游上市公司財務(wù)危機預(yù)警研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-04-26 08:26
【摘要】：經(jīng)濟全球化給中國企業(yè)帶來前所未有的發(fā)展機遇,也帶來了前所未有的挑戰(zhàn)。中國旅游上市公司作為第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的重要組成部分,隨著中國經(jīng)濟騰飛和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的振興,目前也處在一個高速發(fā)展的階段。然而大部分旅游類上市公司高速發(fā)展的光環(huán)并不能掩蓋部分公司因財務(wù)危機而導(dǎo)致的舉步維艱,因此,中國旅游上市公司財務(wù)危機預(yù)警是一個非常值得研究的課題。企業(yè)興衰轉(zhuǎn)變是一個由量變到質(zhì)變的過程,如果我們在財務(wù)危機潛伏期就能采用一定技術(shù)手段識別企業(yè)財務(wù)危機信號,并做出企業(yè)財務(wù)危機預(yù)警、制定相應(yīng)的財務(wù)危機糾正措施,把問題解決在初始階段,使企業(yè)走上健康的發(fā)展道路,就能使企業(yè)避免巨大經(jīng)濟損失。 目前我國財務(wù)危機預(yù)警研究與實踐基本上都是以全部上市公司為樣本、使用共性的預(yù)警模型,幾乎沒有考慮到行業(yè)的差別和企業(yè)的差別。實際上不同行業(yè)可能會產(chǎn)生不同企業(yè)特征,不同企業(yè)特征可能會產(chǎn)生不同的風(fēng)險特征,因此企業(yè)財務(wù)危機預(yù)警模型在設(shè)計之初就要考慮具有行業(yè)烙印的企業(yè)的特征,只有這樣,預(yù)警模型才能更具有針對性,才能更具有實用性和有效性。其次,多數(shù)學(xué)者是以一個年份的歷史財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)進行預(yù)警研究,較少的考慮數(shù)據(jù)的時效性和趨勢。本文在全面分析財務(wù)危機預(yù)警理論的基礎(chǔ)上研究了中國旅游業(yè)發(fā)展的概況、行業(yè)發(fā)展特征,基于投資者視角提出適合中國旅游業(yè)的財務(wù)風(fēng)險預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系。然后采用灰色系統(tǒng)方法中GM(1,1)對中國旅游上市公司財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)進行預(yù)測,得到財務(wù)指標(biāo)預(yù)測值。最后運用AHP-模糊綜合評價法進行綜合評價,進而做出預(yù)警判斷。
[Abstract]:Economic globalization brings unprecedented development opportunities to Chinese enterprises as well as unprecedented challenges. As an important part of the tertiary industry, China's tourism listed companies are in a high-speed development stage with the rapid development of the Chinese economy and the revitalization of the tertiary industry. However, the high-speed development of most of the listed tourism companies can not cover up the financial crisis caused by the financial crisis of some companies, therefore, the financial crisis early warning of Chinese tourism listed companies is a very worthy subject to be studied. The rise and fall of an enterprise is a process from quantity to qualitative change. If we can identify the signal of the financial crisis by some technical means in the latent period of the financial crisis, and make an early warning of the financial crisis of the enterprise, Making corresponding financial crisis correction measures, solving the problem in the initial stage, making the enterprise take the healthy development path, can make the enterprise avoid the huge economic loss. At present, the research and practice of financial crisis early warning in our country are almost all listed companies as samples, using the common early warning model, almost not taking into account the differences between industry and enterprises. In fact, different industries may produce different enterprise characteristics, different enterprise characteristics may produce different risk characteristics, so the early warning model of enterprise financial crisis should consider the characteristics of enterprises with industry brand at the beginning of design, only like this, Only then can the early warning model be more targeted, can it be more practical and effective. Secondly, most scholars use the historical financial data of one year to carry on the early warning research, less consider the timeliness and the trend of the data. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the early warning theory of financial crisis, this paper studies the general situation and characteristics of tourism development in China, and puts forward a financial risk early warning index system suitable for China's tourism industry from the perspective of investors. Then we use the grey system method GM (1,1) to forecast the financial data of Chinese tourism listed companies and get the forecast value of financial indexes. Finally, AHP- fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used for comprehensive evaluation, and then early warning judgment is made.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：沈陽航空航天大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F590.66;F224
[Abstract]:Economic globalization brings unprecedented development opportunities to Chinese enterprises as well as unprecedented challenges. As an important part of the tertiary industry, China's tourism listed companies are in a high-speed development stage with the rapid development of the Chinese economy and the revitalization of the tertiary industry. However, the high-speed development of most of the listed tourism companies can not cover up the financial crisis caused by the financial crisis of some companies, therefore, the financial crisis early warning of Chinese tourism listed companies is a very worthy subject to be studied. The rise and fall of an enterprise is a process from quantity to qualitative change. If we can identify the signal of the financial crisis by some technical means in the latent period of the financial crisis, and make an early warning of the financial crisis of the enterprise, Making corresponding financial crisis correction measures, solving the problem in the initial stage, making the enterprise take the healthy development path, can make the enterprise avoid the huge economic loss. At present, the research and practice of financial crisis early warning in our country are almost all listed companies as samples, using the common early warning model, almost not taking into account the differences between industry and enterprises. In fact, different industries may produce different enterprise characteristics, different enterprise characteristics may produce different risk characteristics, so the early warning model of enterprise financial crisis should consider the characteristics of enterprises with industry brand at the beginning of design, only like this, Only then can the early warning model be more targeted, can it be more practical and effective. Secondly, most scholars use the historical financial data of one year to carry on the early warning research, less consider the timeliness and the trend of the data. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the early warning theory of financial crisis, this paper studies the general situation and characteristics of tourism development in China, and puts forward a financial risk early warning index system suitable for China's tourism industry from the perspective of investors. Then we use the grey system method GM (1,1) to forecast the financial data of Chinese tourism listed companies and get the forecast value of financial indexes. Finally, AHP- fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used for comprehensive evaluation, and then early warning judgment is made.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：沈陽航空航天大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F590.66;F224
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