【摘要】：隨著國(guó)家一系列支持鼓勵(lì)旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展措施的出臺(tái)實(shí)施，，作為中國(guó)沿海旅游山東省，憑借豐富的旅游資源和便利的交通位置，全省的入境旅游作為旅游業(yè)的重要組成部分，發(fā)展迅速。與此同時(shí)，山東作為沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)大省，對(duì)外貿(mào)易發(fā)展突飛猛進(jìn)，進(jìn)出口總額增長(zhǎng)迅速。 根據(jù)旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的相關(guān)理論，大多數(shù)學(xué)者認(rèn)為入境旅游與該地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展存在密切的聯(lián)系，入境旅游業(yè)的發(fā)展往往能夠帶動(dòng)當(dāng)?shù)貙?duì)外貿(mào)易的發(fā)展。對(duì)于山東省是否滿(mǎn)足該理論，是否可以通過(guò)入境旅游業(yè)的發(fā)展帶動(dòng)山東外向型經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的理論研究可以為山東省入境旅游業(yè)發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)未來(lái)規(guī)劃提供理論支持。 通過(guò)搜集整理山東省17市2000-2011年的入境旅游、進(jìn)出口總額的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，發(fā)現(xiàn)二者之間具有同向波動(dòng)的趨勢(shì)，由此猜測(cè)二者之間很可能存在密切關(guān)系。為了準(zhǔn)確研究二者之間的關(guān)系，本文進(jìn)行了定量分析，格蘭杰檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明兩者關(guān)系主要表現(xiàn)為入境旅游對(duì)進(jìn)出口的影響作用。利用面板數(shù)據(jù)模型對(duì)山東省入境旅游與進(jìn)出口總額之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。面板模型定量分析說(shuō)明，全省入境旅游與進(jìn)出口之間存在著均衡關(guān)系，入境旅游的發(fā)展對(duì)進(jìn)出口產(chǎn)生正向的效應(yīng)。本文使用最后結(jié)合山東省各市的自身具備的旅游資源狀況和對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展程度，為不同地區(qū)入境旅游的發(fā)展提出可行性建議。
[Abstract]:With the introduction and implementation of a series of measures to support and encourage the development of the tourism industry, as China's coastal tourism Shandong Province, with its rich tourism resources and convenient traffic location, inbound tourism of the province is an important part of the tourism industry. The development is rapid. At the same time, Shandong as a coastal economic province, foreign trade development by leaps and bounds, import and export total increase rapidly. According to the related theories of tourism economics, most scholars believe that the inbound tourism has a close relationship with the economic development of the region, and the development of inbound tourism can often promote the development of local foreign trade. The theoretical research on whether Shandong province satisfies this theory and whether the development of inbound tourism can promote the development of Shandong export-oriented economy can provide theoretical support for the future planning of Shandong's inbound tourism development and economic growth. Through collecting and sorting out the relevant data of inbound tourism and total import and export of 17 cities in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2011, it is found that there is a trend of the same direction fluctuation between them, and it is speculated that there may be a close relationship between them. In order to accurately study the relationship between the two, this paper carried out quantitative analysis, Granger test results show that the relationship between the two is mainly the impact of inbound tourism on imports and exports. Using panel data model, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between inbound tourism and total import and export of Shandong Province. The quantitative analysis of panel model shows that there is a balanced relationship between inbound tourism and import and export, and the development of inbound tourism has a positive effect on import and export. In this paper, the author puts forward some feasible suggestions for the development of inbound tourism in different regions by combining the situation of tourism resources and the degree of foreign economic development of each city in Shandong Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)石油大學(xué)（華東）
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F592.7;F752.6

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