【摘要】：“旅游促發(fā)展”已成為世界上多數(shù)國家的共識(shí)。旅游業(yè)逐漸成為一項(xiàng)最有發(fā)展前景、最具活力、高關(guān)聯(lián)性的新興產(chǎn)業(yè),許多城市將旅游業(yè)作為當(dāng)?shù)氐闹еa(chǎn)業(yè)或先導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)予以重點(diǎn)扶持,在這樣的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策背景下,旅游項(xiàng)目開發(fā)成為投資熱點(diǎn)。財(cái)務(wù)評(píng)價(jià)則折射出旅游投資項(xiàng)目的可行度,也影響著項(xiàng)目的發(fā)展方向和發(fā)展層次。旅游投資項(xiàng)目的財(cái)務(wù)評(píng)價(jià)研究,對(duì)于把握旅游投資項(xiàng)目的投入產(chǎn)出效應(yīng),優(yōu)化旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展有著重要的實(shí)踐價(jià)值和參考意義。 目前,我國旅游項(xiàng)目財(cái)務(wù)評(píng)價(jià)工作基本上是依據(jù)國家計(jì)委頒布的《建設(shè)項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)價(jià)方法與參數(shù)》來進(jìn)行的,對(duì)市場(chǎng)預(yù)測(cè)、旅游項(xiàng)目籌資、項(xiàng)目運(yùn)作、成本控制、收益管理等系統(tǒng)缺少動(dòng)態(tài)的評(píng)價(jià),無法全面、系統(tǒng)、直觀地揭示旅游項(xiàng)目的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r。 系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)是研究社會(huì)系統(tǒng)動(dòng)態(tài)行為的計(jì)算機(jī)仿真方法。針對(duì)旅游投資項(xiàng)目各因素之間存在的高階次、多重反饋、復(fù)雜時(shí)變的特性,本文利用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)特有的結(jié)構(gòu)性方法,運(yùn)用到旅游投資項(xiàng)目的財(cái)務(wù)評(píng)價(jià)活動(dòng)中,把系統(tǒng)中各關(guān)聯(lián)因素進(jìn)行量化,建立了某客家風(fēng)情園旅游投資項(xiàng)目的因果關(guān)系圖和動(dòng)態(tài)仿真模型,動(dòng)態(tài)、及時(shí)、長期地預(yù)測(cè)該旅游投資項(xiàng)目的運(yùn)行趨勢(shì),進(jìn)行財(cái)務(wù)評(píng)價(jià),提出可行性建議,有助于客家風(fēng)情園旅游投資項(xiàng)目的可持續(xù)健康發(fā)展,推動(dòng)區(qū)域旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展,為旅游投資者提供決策支持依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Tourism for Development has become the consensus of most countries in the world. Tourism has gradually become one of the most promising, dynamic and highly relevant emerging industries. Many cities have given priority support to tourism as a pillar industry or a leading industry in the region. In the context of such industrial policies, Tourism project development has become a hot investment. Financial evaluation reflects the feasibility of tourism investment projects, and also affects the development direction and level of the projects. The study on the financial evaluation of tourism investment projects has important practical value and reference significance for grasping the input-output effect of tourism investment projects, optimizing the structure of tourism industry and promoting economic development. At present, the financial evaluation of tourism projects in China is basically carried out on the basis of the "methods and parameters of economic evaluation of construction projects" promulgated by the State Planning Commission. It forecasts the market, raises funds for tourism projects, runs projects, and controls costs. Revenue management and other systems lack of dynamic evaluation, and can not comprehensively, systematically, intuitively reveal the development of tourism projects. System dynamics is a computer simulation method to study the dynamic behavior of social systems. In view of the high order, multiple feedback and complex time-varying characteristics of various factors in tourism investment projects, this paper applies the structural method of system dynamics to the financial evaluation activities of tourism investment projects. By quantifying the related factors in the system, the causality diagram and dynamic simulation model of a Hakka style garden tourism investment project are established. The dynamic, timely and long-term forecast of the running trend of the tourism investment project and the financial evaluation are carried out. The feasibility suggestion is helpful to the sustainable and healthy development of Hakka style Park tourism investment project, to promote the development of regional tourism industry, and to provide decision support basis for tourism investors.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：N941.3;F592.7

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本文編號(hào)：2197728