本文選題：統(tǒng)計模型 + 組合預(yù)測　； 參考：《四川師范大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：摘要：現(xiàn)代旅游業(yè)是一個高度敏感性的產(chǎn)業(yè),一些突發(fā)事件的出現(xiàn)必會影響旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。本文基于中國旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)序列,構(gòu)建以及組合統(tǒng)計模型和計量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型,對汶川地震以及世界金融危機(jī)等事件產(chǎn)生的影響進(jìn)行研究。本文研究的內(nèi)容和結(jié)論歸納如下： 其一,本文通過汶川地震前四川省旅游數(shù)據(jù)序列建立SARIMA模型,預(yù)測了四川省旅游業(yè)六項主要指標(biāo)以及風(fēng)景區(qū)游客人數(shù),經(jīng)震后實際值與預(yù)測值比較,定量分析汶川地震對四川省旅游業(yè)以及風(fēng)景區(qū)的影響程度、影響時滯和游客分布變化。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：截至2010年4月,國內(nèi)旅游已波動式恢復(fù)至預(yù)測水平,入境旅游還將繼續(xù)受地震影響,但入境旅游將不會影響到四川省旅游業(yè)波動式恢復(fù)至預(yù)測水平的趨勢,并且四川省旅游業(yè)受地震影響的滯后經(jīng)濟(jì)損失已超過了受地震影響的直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失；截至2010年4月,在不考慮風(fēng)景區(qū)外部災(zāi)損影響下,風(fēng)景區(qū)恢復(fù)至預(yù)測水平的時間隨風(fēng)景區(qū)離震源距離增大而縮短,風(fēng)景區(qū)內(nèi)部災(zāi)損程度與風(fēng)景區(qū)離震源距離大致成直線反比關(guān)系,還有汶川地震對游客分布影響顯著,部分風(fēng)景區(qū)游客人數(shù)已超出預(yù)測水平。 其二,為提高中國入境旅游人數(shù)月度數(shù)據(jù)序列預(yù)測精度,本文選擇了TRAMO/SEATS模型、ARFIMA模型以及線性回歸模型,然后將各個單項預(yù)測模型進(jìn)行基于IOWHA算子的組合。最后根據(jù)實際值和組合模型預(yù)測值的比較,定量分析世界金融危機(jī)對中國入境旅游的影響程度和影響時滯,以及探究中國入境旅游未來的發(fā)展趨勢。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：本文建立的基于IOWHA算子的組合預(yù)測模型,達(dá)到了目前為止中國入境旅游人數(shù)月度數(shù)據(jù)序列預(yù)測的最高精度；1991年至2008年,中國入境旅游人數(shù)的增長幅度正在逐漸波動式地縮小,在不考慮將來各種因素影響的情況下,中國入境旅游人數(shù)將很快長期在一定范圍內(nèi)波動；自2008年4月開始,中國入境旅游就開始持續(xù)受到世界金融危機(jī)的顯著影響,2009年9月持續(xù)累積影響效應(yīng)達(dá)到最大,隨后中國入境旅游出現(xiàn)逐漸波動式緩慢恢復(fù)的狀況,截至2010年12月中國入境旅游人數(shù)已經(jīng)完全恢復(fù)至2007年的水平并略有超出,但相對應(yīng)該達(dá)到的預(yù)測水平還有一定距離,所以世界金融危機(jī)對中國入境旅游的滯后影響將是一個更長期的過程。
[Abstract]:Abstract: modern tourism is a highly sensitive industry, and the emergence of some unexpected events will affect the development of tourism industry. Based on the data sequence of China's tourism industry, this paper studies the impact of the Wenchuan earthquake and the world financial crisis on the construction and combination of statistical models and econometric models. The contents and conclusions of this paper are summarized as follows: firstly, this paper establishes the SARIMA model by using the Sichuan tourism data sequence before the Wenchuan earthquake, and predicts the six main indicators of Sichuan tourism and the number of tourists in scenic spots. By comparing the actual values with the predicted values after the earthquake, quantitative analysis of the impact of the Wenchuan earthquake on the tourism industry and scenic spots in Sichuan Province, the impact of time delay and changes of tourist distribution. The study found that, as of April 2010, domestic tourism has recovered to its forecast level in a fluctuating manner, and inbound tourism will continue to be affected by the earthquake, but inbound tourism will not affect the trend of tourism fluctuation to the predicted level in Sichuan Province. Moreover, the lagging economic losses of Sichuan tourism affected by the earthquake have exceeded the direct economic losses affected by the earthquake. As of April 2010, without taking into account the impact of external disasters in scenic spots, The time to recover to the prediction level is shortened with the increase of the distance from the source to the scenic spot. The degree of disaster damage inside the scenic area is approximately in inverse proportion to the distance from the source of the scenic spot, and the Wenchuan earthquake has a significant impact on the distribution of tourists. The number of tourists in some scenic spots has exceeded the forecast level. Secondly, in order to improve the prediction accuracy of monthly data series of Chinese inbound tourist population, this paper selects the ARFIMA model and the linear regression model of TRAMO-SEATS model, and then combines each single prediction model based on IOWHA operator. Finally, according to the comparison between the actual value and the forecast value of the combination model, the paper analyzes quantitatively the influence degree and time delay of the world financial crisis on the inbound tourism of China, and probes into the developing trend of the inbound tourism in China in the future. It is found that the combined forecasting model based on IOWHA operator has reached the highest accuracy of monthly data series prediction of Chinese inbound tourist population from 1991 to 2008. The increase in the number of inbound tourists in China is gradually decreasing in a fluctuating fashion. Without taking into account the influence of various factors in the future, the number of inbound tourists in China will soon fluctuate within a certain range for a long time. Since April 2008, China's inbound tourism began to be significantly affected by the world financial crisis. In September 2009, the continuous cumulative impact reached the maximum, and then China's inbound tourism gradually fluctuated and slowly recovered. As of December 2010, the number of inbound tourists in China had fully recovered to the level of 2007 and slightly exceeded, but there is still some distance to be drawn from the forecast level that should be reached. Therefore, the delayed impact of the world financial crisis on China's inbound tourism will be a longer-term process.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：四川師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F592.7;F224

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 翁鋼民;鄭竹葉;劉洋;;我國入境旅游預(yù)測:基于ARFIMA模型的研究[J];商業(yè)研究;2009年06期

2 傅庚，，唐小我，曾勇;廣義遞歸方差倒數(shù)組合預(yù)測方法研究[J];電子科技大學(xué)學(xué)報;1995年02期

3 徐澤水,達(dá)慶利;一種組合加權(quán)幾何平均算子及其應(yīng)用[J];東南大學(xué)學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版);2002年03期

4 鄒家紅;袁開國;楊洪;;國際金融危機(jī)背景下中國入境旅游業(yè)發(fā)展研究[J];地域研究與開發(fā);2010年01期

5 黃U

本文編號：2107000