本文選題：外國入境旅游 + 旅游價格　； 參考：《蘭州商學院》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：旅游業(yè)作為一種朝陽產(chǎn)業(yè)，具有關(guān)聯(lián)度高、綜合性強等特點，對國民經(jīng)濟起到拉動作用，尤其是入境旅游可以為國家?guī)磔^多的外匯收入，所有國家無一例外的支持發(fā)展入境旅游業(yè)。入境旅游是旅游業(yè)的重要組成部分，在外匯收入、經(jīng)濟建設(shè)和形象宣傳等方面發(fā)揮著重要作用。80年代以來，中國入境旅游業(yè)得到了充分的發(fā)展，呈現(xiàn)出一種興旺的局面，使中國躋身于世界旅游大國行列。 本文從實踐角度入手，，通過對國內(nèi)外入境旅游需求研究文獻進行分析歸類綜述，并對中國入境旅游發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進行了分析。借鑒消費經(jīng)濟學中消費理論構(gòu)建了入境旅游需求的初步模型。并以2001-2009年中國入境旅游主要的20個客源國的面板數(shù)據(jù)進行了計量經(jīng)濟分析。根據(jù)計量經(jīng)濟分析找出了影響外國入境旅游需求的關(guān)鍵因素，并提出了發(fā)展入境旅游的相應(yīng)對策與建議。全文主要分為五章： 第一章是緒論。主要內(nèi)容為本文研究的背景和意義，對國內(nèi)外文獻進行綜述簡要介紹了文章的結(jié)構(gòu)框架。 第二章是入境旅游現(xiàn)狀分析。通過分析收集各項統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)歸納整理中國入境旅游發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀。考察包括入境旅游人數(shù)的增長情況，外匯收入以及構(gòu)成情況，入境游客結(jié)構(gòu)特征分析，并結(jié)合國內(nèi)旅游、入境旅游、外國入境旅游人數(shù)進行了對比。其中入境游客結(jié)構(gòu)特征的考察包括性別構(gòu)成、年齡構(gòu)成、以及原由目的構(gòu)成。通過對入境旅游現(xiàn)狀分析，找出了入境旅游在中國旅游中的特點。無論從人數(shù)還是消費規(guī)模而言都遠不及國內(nèi)旅游，同時旅游人數(shù)的增長率來看，入境旅游人數(shù)受特殊事件波動較大。 第三章為外國入境旅游需求建模。通過主要消費理論的回顧，借鑒其經(jīng)驗進行入境旅游需求建模�？疾斓闹饕M理論有：凱恩斯的消費理論、杜森貝利的消費理論、弗里德曼的消費理論、莫迪里安尼的消費理論以及理性預(yù)期消費函數(shù)。 第四章為實證分析部分，包括變量的選取以及數(shù)據(jù)的平穩(wěn)性檢驗，根據(jù)需求建模歸納的影響旅游的因素，通過計量模型并進行回歸分析。對于模型設(shè)定形式的確定、異方差以及共線性進行了檢驗。最后通過（PCSE估計）糾正異方差對面板數(shù)據(jù)進行再次回歸。 第五章為結(jié)論與建議部分。借助回歸結(jié)果的分析，歸納出對于我國入境旅游旅游最重要的四個因數(shù)：國內(nèi)旅游人數(shù)、實際匯率、客源國的GNI以及中國的利率水平。
[Abstract]:As a sunrise industry, tourism has the characteristics of high correlation and strong comprehensiveness. It plays a driving role in the national economy. In particular, inbound tourism can bring more foreign exchange income to the country. All countries, without exception, support the development of inbound tourism. Inbound tourism is an important part of the tourism industry. It has played an important role in foreign exchange income, economic construction and image publicity since 1980s. Since the 1980s, China's inbound tourism industry has been fully developed, showing a prosperous situation. Put China in the ranks of the world's largest tourist countries. From the perspective of practice, this paper analyzes and classifies the domestic and foreign literature on the demand for inbound tourism, and analyzes the present situation of the development of inbound tourism in China. Based on the consumption theory in consumer economics, this paper constructs a preliminary model of inbound tourism demand. The econometric analysis is carried out on the panel data of 20 major countries of inbound tourism in China from 2001 to 2009. Based on the econometric analysis, this paper finds out the key factors affecting the demand for foreign inbound tourism, and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the development of inbound tourism. The full text is divided into five chapters: the first chapter is the introduction. The main content is the background and significance of this paper. The second chapter is the present situation analysis of inbound tourism. Through the analysis of the collection of statistical data summarized and sorted out the status quo of inbound tourism development in China. The investigation includes the growth of inbound tourist population, foreign exchange income and composition, the structural characteristics of inbound tourists, and the comparison of the number of inbound tourists, domestic tourism, inbound tourism and foreign inbound tourism. The structural characteristics of inbound tourists include sex composition, age composition and original purpose. By analyzing the present situation of inbound tourism, this paper finds out the characteristics of inbound tourism in Chinese tourism. Both the number of people and the scale of consumption are far less than domestic tourism, and the growth rate of the number of tourists, the number of inbound tourism fluctuates greatly by special events. The third chapter models the foreign inbound tourism demand. Based on the review of the main consumption theory, the model of inbound tourism demand is built based on its experience. The main consumption theories are Keynesian consumption theory, Dusenbelle consumption theory, Friedman's consumption theory, Modigliani's consumption theory and rational expectation consumption function. The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis, including the selection of variables and the test of the stability of the data, according to the demand modeling induction of factors affecting tourism, through the econometric model and regression analysis. The heteroscedasticity and collinearity of the model are tested. Finally, the panel data are regressed by correcting heteroscedasticity through (PCSE estimation). The fifth chapter is the conclusion and recommendation part. Based on the analysis of the regression results, the four most important factors for inbound tourism in China are summed up: the number of domestic tourists, the real exchange rate, the GNI of the source country and the interest rate level of China.
【學位授予單位】：蘭州商學院
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F592;F224

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