本文選題：森林公園　切入點(diǎn)：旅游收入　出處：《中南林業(yè)科技大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：我國森林公園經(jīng)過30多年的發(fā)展,已成為林業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級、資源環(huán)境保護(hù)、生態(tài)文明建設(shè)和推進(jìn)綠色化發(fā)展的重要陣地,發(fā)展森林旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)是林區(qū)群眾脫貧致富,縮小區(qū)域發(fā)展差距,促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會可持續(xù)發(fā)展的有效路徑。2013年全國共有森林公園2948處,經(jīng)營總面積1758萬余公頃,接待游客5.89億人次,旅游收入491.1億元,創(chuàng)造社會綜合產(chǎn)值超4700億元,良好的生態(tài)、社會和經(jīng)濟(jì)效益凸顯。本研究以森林旅游學(xué)、區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、應(yīng)用數(shù)學(xué)等學(xué)科理論為指導(dǎo),綜合運(yùn)用對比分析、偏離-份額分析及灰色-馬爾科夫預(yù)測等方法,對湖南省森林公園旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展及其收入進(jìn)行動態(tài)分析和預(yù)測。簡要梳理了國內(nèi)外關(guān)于森林公園建設(shè)與研究進(jìn)展情況,并闡述了相關(guān)理論方法及其應(yīng)用；回顧了湖南省森林公園建設(shè)與森林旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)的狀況,系統(tǒng)分析了全省森林公園2004-2013年旅游收入情況,對其在全國森林公園經(jīng)營建設(shè)的地位、貢獻(xiàn)等做出了客觀評析；運(yùn)用偏離-份額分析法的傳統(tǒng)靜態(tài)模型和動態(tài)模型,就全省森林公園旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)2009-2013年建設(shè)與發(fā)展?fàn)顩r進(jìn)行理性分析評價(jià),基于灰色-馬爾科夫模型對全省森林公園旅游收入做出預(yù)測,進(jìn)而探析全省森林公園旅游業(yè)發(fā)展趨勢及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整方向,有針對性地提出對策和建議,為實(shí)現(xiàn)湖南省森林公園旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供理論依據(jù)與決策參考。本研究主要結(jié)論是：2004-2013年間,湖南省森林公園旅游收入整體穩(wěn)中有增,居全國相對領(lǐng)先地位但發(fā)展速度略低于全國水平,在全國森林公園旅游總收入中所占比重在3.28%-6.39%間浮動,貢獻(xiàn)度有待提升；2009-2013年湖南省森林公園旅游收入以觀光旅游和門票收入為主,與全國相對增長率L=1.53大于1,結(jié)構(gòu)效果指數(shù)W=0.98略小于1,同時(shí)小于相對增長率L和競爭力效果指數(shù)U,總競爭力偏離分量Di等于51608.75,數(shù)值較大且競爭力效果指數(shù)U=1.56,同樣大于1,表明考察期內(nèi)全省森林公園旅游收入普遍呈增長態(tài)勢,在份額和競爭力上具有一定優(yōu)勢,但產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展處于初級階段,新興產(chǎn)業(yè)比重小,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)亟需優(yōu)化升級；產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部食宿行業(yè)與娛樂業(yè)的發(fā)展水平較低,競爭處劣勢地位；與森林旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)緊密的其它行業(yè)在份額、結(jié)構(gòu)、優(yōu)勢等方面相對保持較大優(yōu)勢,但競爭力有待提升；全省森林公園旅游收入在未來10年將保持積極穩(wěn)健的上升趨勢,預(yù)計(jì)在2023逼近300億元關(guān)口。結(jié)合分析結(jié)果,提出在推動全省森林公園旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展進(jìn)程中,因地制宜地開發(fā)以休閑度假、運(yùn)動康體與田園體驗(yàn)等為特色的森林旅游是發(fā)展方向,優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、健全森林旅游產(chǎn)品體系、推動產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈延伸、整合資源打造品牌、提升經(jīng)營管理水平是實(shí)現(xiàn)路徑。
[Abstract]:After more than 30 years of development, forest parks in China have become an important position for forestry transformation and upgrading, protection of resources and environment, construction of ecological civilization and promotion of green development. The development of forest tourism industry is an important position for the people in forest areas to get rid of poverty and become rich. In 2013, there were 2,948 forest parks throughout the country, with a total operating area of more than 17.58 million hectares, receiving 589 million tourists and earning 49.11 billion yuan. This research is guided by the theories of forest tourism, regional economics, applied mathematics and so on. Based on the methods of deviation-share analysis and gray-Markov forecast, this paper makes a dynamic analysis and prediction on the development and income of forest park tourism industry in Hunan Province, and briefly reviews the progress of forest park construction and research both at home and abroad. This paper also expounds the related theories and methods and their applications, reviews the situation of forest park construction and forest tourism industry in Hunan Province, systematically analyzes the tourism income of forest parks in Hunan Province from 2004 to 2013, and gives a detailed analysis of the status of forest park management and construction in the whole country. Using the traditional static model and dynamic model of deviation-share analysis, this paper makes a rational analysis and evaluation on the construction and development of forest park tourism industry in the province from 2009 to 2013. Based on the grey-Markov model, this paper forecasts the tourism income of forest parks in the province, and then analyzes the development trend and industrial structure adjustment direction of the forest park tourism in the province, and puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions. In order to realize the sustainable development of Hunan forest park tourism industry, the main conclusion of this study is that the tourism income of Hunan forest park increased steadily from 2004 to 2013. Occupying a relatively leading position in the country, but the speed of development is slightly lower than the national level, the proportion of the total tourism income of the national forest parks fluctuates between 3.28-6.39%. The tourism revenue of Hunan Forest Park in 2009-2013 is mainly tourism and ticket income. Compared with the national relative growth rate L _ (1.53) > 1, the structural effect index W _ (0.98) less than 1, and the relative growth rate L and the competitiveness effect index U, the deviation component of the total competitiveness is equal to 51608.75, and the value is larger and the competitiveness effect index U _ (1) is 1.56. During the inspection period, the tourism income of forest parks in the whole province generally showed an increasing trend. Share and competitiveness have some advantages, but the industrial development is in the primary stage, the proportion of emerging industries is small, the industrial structure needs to be optimized and upgraded, the development level of the industry interior accommodation industry and entertainment industry is low, the competitive position is inferior; Other industries closely related to the forest tourism industry have relatively large advantages in share, structure, advantage, etc, but their competitiveness needs to be improved. The tourism income of forest parks in the whole province will maintain a positive and steady upward trend in the next 10 years. It is expected to approach the 30 billion yuan mark at 2023. Combined with the analysis results, it is proposed that in the process of promoting the development of the tourism industry in the forest parks in the whole province, the development of forest tourism, characterized by leisure vacation, sports, sports, sports and pastoral experience, is the development direction in the process of promoting the development of the tourism industry in the forest parks of the whole province. Optimizing the industrial structure, perfecting the forest tourism product system, promoting the extension of the industrial chain, integrating the resources to create the brand, and improving the management level are the ways to realize.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南林業(yè)科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F592.7

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