本文選題：旅游項(xiàng)目　切入點(diǎn)：數(shù)據(jù)挖掘　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：旅游業(yè)作為我國(guó)三大支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)之一，其未來(lái)發(fā)展對(duì)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展起到重要的作用。隨著旅游業(yè)的發(fā)展，許多中國(guó)游客的消費(fèi)理念也在悄然發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)變，這種觀點(diǎn)從從“出發(fā)前看重價(jià)格，旅行中追求品質(zhì)”的不成熟旅游消費(fèi)觀念，開始轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)椤俺霭l(fā)前注重品質(zhì)，認(rèn)可合理的價(jià)格”。所以發(fā)展具有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的旅游項(xiàng)目是旅行社在市場(chǎng)中長(zhǎng)久發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵。然而旅游業(yè)存在著許多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，如政治，自然，治安等。許多研究人員也致力于旅游風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的研究，但都是對(duì)于旅行社整體發(fā)展或單一區(qū)域旅游發(fā)展進(jìn)行的，對(duì)于旅行社內(nèi)部具體項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估分析卻極為欠缺。 本文首次提出利用數(shù)據(jù)挖掘工具將客戶信息與旅游數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)合進(jìn)行多維挖掘，并將數(shù)據(jù)挖掘與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估合理的結(jié)合在一起。將旅行社項(xiàng)目作為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估目標(biāo)，結(jié)合旅行社客戶詳細(xì)信息，路線信息和業(yè)務(wù)詳情進(jìn)行全面挖掘分析，識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素，并獲得潛在決策項(xiàng)目組合。為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型的簡(jiǎn)歷提供可靠的依據(jù)。 根據(jù)數(shù)據(jù)挖掘結(jié)果并利用專家工作建立旅行社項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)體系，利用層次分析法，建立各風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素之間的權(quán)重矩陣模型，結(jié)合模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)決策法建立綜合評(píng)價(jià)模型。最終得出潛在決策信息的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)。 本文以具體業(yè)務(wù)這個(gè)全新的視角對(duì)旅行社進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估，建立風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型。而對(duì)具體業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估可以幫助旅行社進(jìn)行未來(lái)業(yè)務(wù)預(yù)測(cè)，合理分配公司資源。根據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型對(duì)旅行社業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)行合理規(guī)劃預(yù)測(cè)將使得旅行社在復(fù)雜市場(chǎng)環(huán)境下更具有優(yōu)勢(shì)，，提高旅行社的市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)能力。
[Abstract]:Tourism as one of the three pillar industries in China, its future development plays an important role in the development of the national economy. With the development of tourism, the consumption concept of many Chinese tourists is also quietly changing. This view has changed from an immature concept of tourism consumption, which "values price before departure and pursues quality during travel," to "focus on quality before departure." Therefore, the development of competitive tourism projects is the key to the long-term development of travel agencies in the market. However, tourism has many risks, such as politics, nature, Many researchers are also devoted to the study of tourism risk, but all of them are for the overall development of travel agencies or the development of tourism in a single region, but the risk assessment and analysis of specific projects within travel agencies are extremely lacking. For the first time, this paper proposes using data mining tools to combine customer information with tourism data for multidimensional mining, and reasonably combine data mining with risk assessment. Combined with travel agency customer details, route information and business details, comprehensive mining and analysis, identify risk factors, and obtain potential decision-making portfolio, to provide a reliable basis for the risk assessment model resume. According to the results of data mining and using the work of experts, the risk index system of travel agency project is established, and the weight matrix model of each risk factor is established by using the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Combined with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation decision method, the comprehensive evaluation model is established, and the risk level of the potential decision information is finally obtained. In this paper, we use the new perspective of specific business to evaluate the risk of travel agencies, and establish a risk assessment model, while the risk assessment of specific business can help travel agencies to predict future business. Reasonable allocation of company resources and reasonable planning and prediction of travel agency business based on risk assessment model will make travel agency have more advantages in complex market environment and improve the market competitiveness of travel agency.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F592.6

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