本文關(guān)鍵詞：CPI與我國旅游上市公司成長性相互關(guān)系研究　出處：《陜西師范大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： CPI 旅游上市公司 成長性 相互關(guān)系

【摘要】：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變動的因素有很多,與人們最相關(guān)的就是物價,因為近年來通貨膨脹對人們的影響越來越大。而反映通貨膨脹的指標(biāo)就是居民消費價格指數(shù),即CPI。居民消費價格指數(shù)作為一個重要的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo),反映了整個宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)運行狀況,與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)運行有著密不可分的關(guān)系。如今,人們越來越感覺到通貨膨脹對生活的影響,因此,研究居民消費價格指數(shù)與旅游企業(yè)的關(guān)系就更具有其實際意義。本研究以我國旅游上市公司為研究對象,在借鑒前人經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論和成長性理論的基礎(chǔ)上,通過構(gòu)建模型,分析物價指數(shù)與旅游上市公司成長性的相互關(guān)系。 本選題的研究目的：(1)本研究試圖探討居民消費價格指數(shù)的變化與旅游上市公司的成長性是否具有關(guān)系,有關(guān)系的話,是正向還是負(fù)向,是否顯著。(2)分析旅游上市公司成長性的變化是否對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)居民消費價格指數(shù)有影響,有何影響。(3)對所選的旅游上市公司進(jìn)行分類,即酒店類、景區(qū)類和綜合類旅游上市公司,分析居民消費價格指數(shù)對不同種類的旅游上市公司影響情況如何。(4)通過對CPI與旅游行業(yè)上市公司成長性相互關(guān)系的研究,較為清晰的了解到CPI怎么影響行業(yè)內(nèi)旅游上市公司的成長概況,投資者可以通過分析宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境狀況,對投資對象和投資策略進(jìn)行選擇,這便為投資者的投資選擇提供了一定的參考依據(jù)。 本選題的研究過程：(1)從國內(nèi)外兩個層面對居民消費價格指數(shù)、旅游上市公司、成長性的文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行整理分析。(2)對2002-2010年居民消費價格指數(shù)進(jìn)行描述性統(tǒng)計,通過對國內(nèi)外CPI、成長性理論以及我國旅游上市公司相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的整理,在前人研究的基礎(chǔ)上,借助SPSS數(shù)理統(tǒng)計工具,對所選取的財務(wù)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行歸類,然后采用合適的財務(wù)指標(biāo)構(gòu)建上市公司成長性的評價體系。(3)在構(gòu)建旅游上市公司成長性評價體系的基礎(chǔ)上,引入控制變量公司規(guī)模,期間費用率,企業(yè)的經(jīng)營風(fēng)險,并提出假設(shè)；通過回歸分析研究價格指數(shù)、旅游上市公司成長性、公司規(guī)模、期間費用率、企業(yè)的經(jīng)營風(fēng)險的相關(guān)性。(4)為了更進(jìn)一步證實CPI與旅游上市公司成長性之間的關(guān)系,對二者進(jìn)行了格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗。 本選題研究結(jié)論：(1)本研究通通過構(gòu)建評價體系,得出旅游上市公司成長性得分,從得分情況可以看出,酒店類旅游行業(yè)上市公司的成長性最好,景區(qū)類旅游上市公司成長性次之,綜合類旅游上市公司成長性較差。(2)模型以公司成長性作為被解釋變量,CPI為解釋變量,回歸模型結(jié)果顯示,我國物價指數(shù),即CPI的變化對旅游上市公司的成長性有顯著的負(fù)向影響。(3)以旅游上市公司成長性作為解釋變量,CPI為被解釋變量,對CPI與旅游上市公司成長性進(jìn)行線性回歸分析。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),二者之間并沒有顯著的相關(guān)關(guān)系。(4)在更進(jìn)一步研究二者之間的關(guān)系時,筆者對二者進(jìn)行了格蘭杰結(jié)果關(guān)系檢驗,發(fā)現(xiàn)CPI與旅游上市公司成長性只存在單向的因果關(guān)系,即CPI是引起旅游上市公司成長性的格蘭杰原因,而旅游上市公司成長性不是引起CPI的格蘭杰原因。 本研究的創(chuàng)新點：(1)在研究內(nèi)容選擇方面：將宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)引入了旅游上市公司的研究。雖然國內(nèi)外學(xué)者對企業(yè)成長性研究關(guān)注度較高,但對居民消費價格指數(shù)與旅游上市公司成長性之間的關(guān)系研究略顯不足。(2)在成長性體系構(gòu)建方面：豐富了成長性評價體系。本研究構(gòu)建了旅游行業(yè)上市公司成長性評價模型,并利用這一模型對旅游行業(yè)上市公司的成長性進(jìn)行了評價。這在一定程度上豐富了企業(yè)成長性評價理論。
[Abstract]:There are many factors of macroeconomic changes, and the most relevant people is the price, because in recent years the inflation influence on people more and more. And the indicator of inflation is the consumer price index, the CPI. consumer price index as an important macroeconomic index, reflects the macroeconomic situation, there are a close relationship with the macroeconomic operation. Now, more and more people feel the impact of inflation on life, therefore, study on the relationship between consumer price index and tourism enterprises have more practical significance. In this study, China's tourism listed companies as the research object, based on the previous theory of economics and the theory of growth through constructing the model, analyze the relation between the price index and tourism growth of listed companies.
The purpose of this research: (1) this study attempts to explore the changes of consumer price index and the growth of the tourism listed company is, anything, is positive or negative, is significant. (2) analysis of changes in the growth of tourism listed companies have influence on macroeconomic indicators of consumption what is the impact of price index. (3) the classification of tourism listed companies selected, namely Hotel, scenic spot and comprehensive travel company, analysis of consumer price index of tourism listed companies of different types of influence situation. (4) of the CPI and the tourism listed companies growth relationship the study, more clear understanding of how to influence the growth of CPI in the tourism industry of listed companies, investors can through the analysis of the macroeconomic environment, the selection of investment and investment strategy, it is The investor's choice of investment provides a certain reference basis.
The process of the research: (1) from home and abroad from two aspects of the consumer price index, tourism listed companies, the growth of literature analysis. (2) descriptive statistics on the 2002-2010 consumer price index, through to the domestic and foreign CPI, growth theory and related literature of Chinese tourism listed companies the arrangement, on the basis of previous studies, using SPSS statistical tools, the financial indexes selected are classified, and then construct a growth evaluation system of listed companies using the appropriate financial indicators. (3) based on the growth evaluation system of the construction of tourism listed companies, the introduction of control variables in company size, period costs rate of business risk, and put forward the hypothesis; through regression analysis of the price index, the growth of tourism listed companies, the company scale, the expense ratio, correlation between business risk business. (4) for The relationship between CPI and the growth of the listed tourist companies is further confirmed, and the Grainger causality test is carried out for the two parties.
The conclusion of this research: (1) this study through the construction of evaluation system, the score of growth of tourism listed companies, from the score can be seen, the growth of the hotel industry listed companies the best scenic spot of the tourist growth of the listed company of comprehensive tourism poor growth of listed companies (2). The model of growth as explanatory variables in the company, CPI as the explanatory variable, the regression model showed that the price index in China, namely, the change of CPI on the growth of tourism listed companies has a significant negative effect. (3) the tourism listed company growth as explanatory variables, CPI as explanatory variables, the the growth of CPI and tourism listed companies by the linear regression analysis. The results showed that no significant correlation between the two. (4) in the further study of the relationship between the two, the author has carried on the examination of the relationship between the two results of Grainger, It is found that CPI has only one causal relationship with the growth of tourism listed companies, that is, CPI is the Grainger reason that causes the growth of tourism listed companies, and the growth of tourism listed companies is not the cause of CPI's Grainger.
The innovation of this study: (1) in the aspect of the selection of research content: macroeconomic indicators into the research of tourism listed companies. Although domestic and foreign scholars study on the growth of enterprises to a higher degree of concern, but the relationship of a consumer price index and tourism growth of listed companies between the (2) construction. In the aspect of growth system: rich growth evaluation system. This study constructs tourism industry growth evaluation model of listed companies, and the growth of tourism listed companies were evaluated by using this model. It enriches the enterprise growth evaluation theory to a certain extent.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：陜西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F592.6

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本文編號：1440465