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產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系的統(tǒng)計(jì)研究

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2019-03-19 18:02
【摘要】: 產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長互相依賴,相互促進(jìn)。在一定條件下,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的基礎(chǔ),是促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的主要因素;而不同速度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長又對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)有不同的要求,即經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長將導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生相應(yīng)的變動(dòng),F(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的過程,其實(shí)質(zhì)是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)相互聯(lián)系、相互促進(jìn),不斷發(fā)展的辯證過程。由此,就產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響,國外學(xué)者作了不少研究,己有很豐富的研究成果。隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革的深化,我國學(xué)者極其關(guān)注經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的問題,同時(shí)對我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)及其變動(dòng)進(jìn)行了一些有益的探索。但在總體上,仍處于介紹西方有關(guān)理論的層面上,或者僅考察產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng),或者專門考察經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,而把兩者結(jié)合起來進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)研究尚少見,特別是緊密結(jié)合我國實(shí)際對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究的也不多見。 本文按照這一思路,在借鑒國內(nèi)外學(xué)者已有研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,從產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系入手,結(jié)合中國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的實(shí)際情況,運(yùn)用各種分析方法對我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)及其對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,力圖尋找適當(dāng)我國國情的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化道路,從而推進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)地快速增長。本文除導(dǎo)言以外共分五章: 第一章,闡述產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系。在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變的關(guān)系問題上,一直存在兩種不同的觀點(diǎn)。傳統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論認(rèn)為,在競爭均衡的假設(shè)下,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長是資本積累、勞動(dòng)力增加和技術(shù)變化長期作用的結(jié)果,F(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論卻認(rèn)為,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長是生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變的一個(gè)方面,而結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)變通常是非均衡的條件下發(fā)生的。因此,勞動(dòng)和資本從生產(chǎn)率較低的部門向生產(chǎn)率較高的部門轉(zhuǎn)移能夠加速經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,即結(jié)構(gòu)效率是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的一個(gè)源泉。本章首先界定產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的內(nèi)涵及特征,通過對傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論的反思,闡釋了現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的本質(zhì)要求就是產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長協(xié)調(diào),從而論證了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的相互依賴相互促進(jìn)的辯證統(tǒng)一關(guān)系。 第二章,剖析各主要經(jīng)濟(jì)變量之間的作用機(jī)理。從而將產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系,從感性認(rèn)識上升到理性認(rèn)識。本章首先在定性分析基礎(chǔ)上,引入數(shù)量分析方法,展開對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響進(jìn)行定量分析,,然后深入經(jīng)WP=6濟(jì)增長函數(shù)內(nèi)部,將索洛增長方程中的“余值”進(jìn)行分解,提出其中的含有結(jié)構(gòu)效益的測算模型,從而解析了長期以來“余值”作為技術(shù)進(jìn)步對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的度量這樣一個(gè)理論誤區(qū)。 第三章,我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的實(shí)證分析。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)具有動(dòng)態(tài)性。任何現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)都是在原有經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的基礎(chǔ)上發(fā)展而形成的。本章從經(jīng)濟(jì)增長對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響入手,即把產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)視為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的函數(shù),考察產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過程中的演變規(guī)律,本章著重考察我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的一般態(tài)勢和特殊表現(xiàn),勾勒出我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的基本輪廊。采用靜態(tài)、動(dòng)態(tài)及比較分析法,通過把我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)趨勢與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)一般趨勢的對比分析,揭示我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)階段的特點(diǎn)及演進(jìn)過程中所存在的問題。 第四章,我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長影響的統(tǒng)計(jì)分析。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)除了變動(dòng)的高級化趨勢,還有其變動(dòng)的合理化趨勢。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高級化和合理化統(tǒng)稱為產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化。合理的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)并不是幾個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)部門的簡單組合,而是能發(fā)揮較高的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益和有利于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的有機(jī)組合。因此,評價(jià)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)劣和合理與否,需要通過一些統(tǒng)計(jì)指標(biāo)對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的總體效益水平進(jìn)行測算和評價(jià)。本章從產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響入手,即把產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)作為內(nèi)生變量,視經(jīng)濟(jì)增長為產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的函數(shù),選擇多種統(tǒng)計(jì)指標(biāo)、采用各種統(tǒng)計(jì)分析方法,考察產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用力。 第五章,在以上分析基礎(chǔ)上探討“十五”期間我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的戰(zhàn)略及對策。 本章結(jié)合我國國情,全面、系統(tǒng)地闡述了推進(jìn)我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化升級的戰(zhàn)略,提出了非均衡增長、資源傾斜配置和協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展及信息化與工業(yè)化同時(shí)推進(jìn),實(shí)現(xiàn)跨越式發(fā)展的總體戰(zhàn)略思路。同時(shí),緊密聯(lián)系實(shí)際提出了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整必須與擴(kuò)大和培育內(nèi)需這一宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)目標(biāo),又要與加入WTO聯(lián)系起來為導(dǎo)向,創(chuàng)造性地提出了一系列比較有價(jià)值的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對策,為推進(jìn)我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行提供可操作的理論依據(jù)。 本文是從產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系入手進(jìn)行的統(tǒng)計(jì)研究。為此采用了定性分析與定量分析相結(jié)合的研究方法。體現(xiàn)在對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的相互關(guān)系進(jìn)行了定性描述,在此基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)而對產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響機(jī)理WP=7進(jìn)行了深入的數(shù)量經(jīng)濟(jì)分析,深刻地揭示了各主要經(jīng)濟(jì)變量之間的數(shù)理關(guān)系。 本文研究方法既有規(guī)范分析又有實(shí)證分析,且以實(shí)證分析為主要研究方法。具體體現(xiàn)在第三章中,對我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)的基本趨勢,和其與國際比較進(jìn)行的實(shí)證分析。 本文是從統(tǒng)計(jì)角度進(jìn)行研究,因此本文運(yùn)用了多種統(tǒng)計(jì)分析方法,并進(jìn)行了大量的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)分析及計(jì)算。主要體現(xiàn)在第三章及第四章有關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì)實(shí)證分析中及第四章的統(tǒng)計(jì)指標(biāo)選擇及其測算過程中。
[Abstract]:The change of industrial structure and economic growth depend on each other and promote each other. Under certain conditions, the change of industrial structure is the basis of economic growth, which is the main factor to promote the economic growth, and the economic growth of different speed has different requirements on the industrial structure, that is, the growth of the economy will lead to the corresponding change of the industrial structure. The process of modern economic growth is the dialectical process of economic growth and industrial structure change, mutual promotion and development. As a result, the influence of the change of industrial structure on the growth of the economy, foreign scholars have made a lot of research, and have rich research results. With the deepening of China's economic system reform, Chinese scholars pay close attention to the problems of economic growth and economic structure, and also make some useful exploration on the industrial structure and the change of our country. But in the whole, it is still in the aspect of the introduction of the western theory, or only the change of the industrial structure, or the special investigation of the economic growth, and the combination of the two is still rare, In particular, there are few empirical studies on the relationship between the change of industrial structure and economic growth in China. Based on the research results of the domestic and foreign scholars, this paper starts with the relationship between the change of the industrial structure and the economic growth, and combines the industrial structure of China and the relationship between the industrial structure and the economic growth. Based on the actual situation of economic growth, the paper makes an empirical analysis on the changes of the industrial structure and the effect on the economic growth of our country by using various analytical methods, and tries to find the optimal path of the industrial structure with the appropriate national conditions, so as to promote the economic growth The economy continues to grow rapidly. This article in addition to that introduction, it is divided into five chapters: A chapter on the relationship between the change of industrial structure and economic growth. The traditional economic growth theory holds that economic growth is the capital product under the assumption that the competition is balanced. The result of long-term effects of fatigue, labor and technology changes. Modern economic growth theory is of the view that economic growth is an aspect of the transformation of production structure As a result, the shift in structure is usually under the condition of non-equilibrium. Therefore, the transfer of labor and capital from a lower productivity sector to a higher productivity sector can speed up the The economic growth is a source of economic growth. In this chapter, the connotation and characteristics of the industrial structure are first defined, and the modern economic growth is explained through the reflection of the traditional economic growth theory. The long essential requirement is the coordination between the industrial structure and the economic growth, so as to demonstrate the change of the industrial structure and the change of the economic growth. The dialectical unity of the interdependence and mutual promotion of economic growth. In the second chapter, the mechanism of action between the main economic variables is analyzed. In this chapter, based on the qualitative analysis, the quantitative analysis method is introduced, the effect of the change of industrial structure on the economic growth is analyzed quantitatively, and then the value of the Soilo growth equation is further analyzed through the internal of the WP = 6 economic growth function. In this paper, the structure-benefit-based measurement model is put forward to analyze the long-term "total value". " as a technological advance for economic growth such a theoretical error as the metric of the metric The third chapter, the empirical analysis of the change of the industrial structure in China The industrial structure is dynamic. Any existing industrial structure is formed on the basis of the original economic growth. This chapter starts with the influence of economic growth on the industrial structure, that is, the industrial structure is regarded as a function of economic growth, and the industrial structure is examined. in that course of economic development, This chapter focuses on the general situation and special performance of China's industrial structure change, and outlines the basic wheel corridor of our country's industrial structure. A Comparative Analysis of the General Trend of the Structure Change and the Present Stage of China's Industrial Structure The problems in the process of evolution. The Statistics of the Influence of the Changes of the Industrial Structure on the Economic Growth in China In addition to the high-level trend of the change, the industrial structure has a reasonable tendency to change. The higher-level industrial structure and the rationalization of the industrial structure are collectively referred to as the excellent industrial structure The rational industrial structure is not a simple combination of several industrial departments, but it can play a higher economic benefit and the organic combination of economic development Therefore, it is necessary to measure and evaluate the overall benefit level of industrial structure change through some statistical indicators. As a function of the change of the industrial structure, a variety of statistical indicators are selected, and various statistical analysis methods are used to study the economic growth of the industrial structure change Chapter 5, on the basis of the above analysis, discusses the strategy and countermeasure of China's industrial structure adjustment during the "XV" period. This paper systematically expounds the strategy of promoting the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure in China, and puts forward the overall strategic thinking of non-equilibrium growth, resource inclination configuration and coordination development and the simultaneous promotion of information and industrialization, so as to realize the leap-forward development. At the same time, it is closely related to the reality. in that inter of the macro-economic goal of the adjustment of the industrial structure and the expansion and cultivation of domestic demand, In addition, we should contact the WTO to guide and creatively put forward a series of comparison The more valuable industrial structure adjustment measures to promote the industrial structure of our country The paper, based on the relationship between the change of the industrial structure and the economic growth, adopts the research method of the combination of the qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis, which is reflected in the change of the industrial structure and the economic growth. The relationship between the economic growth and the economic growth is described. On the basis of this, the change of the industrial structure is further The impact mechanism of economic growth, WP = 7, has carried out an in-depth quantitative and economic analysis, and deeply reveals the main economic variables. The research methods of this paper have both normative and empirical analysis, and the empirical analysis is the main research. The research method, which is embodied in the third chapter, is the basic trend of the change of the industrial structure in China, and the real relationship with the international comparison.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2002
【分類號】:F121.3;F061.2

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前3條

1 王曉輝;中國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的動(dòng)態(tài)投入產(chǎn)出模型分析[D];哈爾濱工程大學(xué);2010年

2 彭長青;江蘇沿江經(jīng)濟(jì)開發(fā)區(qū)域糧食供需平衡分析與對策研究[D];南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué);2007年

3 陳勇;區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不同階段的產(chǎn)業(yè)序列研究[D];南京農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué);2012年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前10條

1 姜媛媛;我國區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的偏離—份額分析[D];天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué);2010年

2 夏奔;寧波市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演變及效應(yīng)研究[D];寧波大學(xué);2009年

3 鄧冬云;桂林市地方財(cái)源建設(shè)中產(chǎn)業(yè)選擇的系統(tǒng)分析[D];桂林電子科技大學(xué);2006年

4 肖崇;新疆產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)換與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長研究[D];新疆大學(xué);2008年

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