【摘要】：中國是世界上二氧化硫和二氧化碳排放量最高的國家,伴隨著中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的飛速發(fā)展,短期內(nèi)能源的這種結(jié)構(gòu)不會發(fā)生改變。為了實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境的雙贏發(fā)展,中國逐漸開展二氧化硫和二氧化碳排污權(quán)交易政策。為研究已經(jīng)開展的政策試點活動取得的成效,本文從現(xiàn)實和潛在效應(yīng)的角度分別對我國試點省市二氧化硫排污權(quán)交易政策實現(xiàn)的產(chǎn)出效應(yīng)和減排效應(yīng)進(jìn)行實證分析。本文首先定性分析我國試點省市實施二氧化硫排污權(quán)交易政策的基本情況,并總結(jié)不同省市的交易模式、試點活動達(dá)到的效果和存在的問題,定量分析工業(yè)二氧化硫排放的趨勢。其次,為分析排污權(quán)交易政策實施的現(xiàn)實效應(yīng),以我國30個省份2000-2014年的工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值和工業(yè)二氧化硫為研究對象,運(yùn)用倍差法模型,測算分析相對于非試點省市,試點省市實施排污權(quán)交易政策的產(chǎn)出效應(yīng)與減排效應(yīng)。再次,為分析排污權(quán)交易政策實施的潛在效應(yīng),以試點省市2002-2014年的樣本數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ),運(yùn)用基于環(huán)境技術(shù)的方向性距離函數(shù),測算試點省市實施二氧化硫排污權(quán)交易政策相對于強(qiáng)制性減排的產(chǎn)出與減排效應(yīng)。最后構(gòu)建動態(tài)行為分析模型,設(shè)定不同的產(chǎn)出與減排目標(biāo),分析排污權(quán)交易政策對潛在產(chǎn)出與潛在減排的動態(tài)效應(yīng),尋找二氧化硫排污權(quán)交易政策最適合的發(fā)展路徑。研究結(jié)果表明:(1)從現(xiàn)實效應(yīng)的視角考察,排污權(quán)交易政策沒有實現(xiàn)產(chǎn)出效應(yīng)與減排效應(yīng),即我國試點省市實施排污權(quán)交易政策沒有發(fā)揮增加工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值以及減少工業(yè)二氧化硫排放量的作用。(2)從潛在效應(yīng)的視角考察,排污權(quán)交易政策在一定程度上實現(xiàn)了產(chǎn)出效應(yīng)與減排效應(yīng)。即從潛在角度分析,實施排污權(quán)交易政策相對于強(qiáng)制性減排政策能夠增加工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值以及減少工業(yè)二氧化硫排放量,并且排污權(quán)交易政策的潛在優(yōu)勢隨著時間的推移越來越明顯。
[Abstract]:China is the world's biggest emitter of sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide, and the structure of energy will not change in the short term with the rapid growth of China's economy. In order to achieve a win-win economic and environmental development, China gradually launched the sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide emissions trading policy. In order to study the effect of the policy pilot activities, this paper empirically analyzes the output effect and emission reduction effect of sulfur dioxide emission trading policy in China's pilot provinces and cities from the point of view of practical and potential effects. This paper first qualitatively analyzes the basic situation of the implementation of sulfur dioxide emission trading policy in the pilot provinces and cities in China, and summarizes the trading patterns of different provinces and cities, the effects of the pilot activities and the existing problems. Quantitative analysis of industrial sulfur dioxide emission trends. Secondly, in order to analyze the practical effect of emission trading policy, taking the industrial output value and industrial sulfur dioxide of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2014 as the research object, using the double difference model, the paper calculates and analyzes the relative to the non-pilot provinces and cities. The output effect and emission reduction effect of implementing emission trading policy in pilot provinces and cities. Thirdly, in order to analyze the potential effect of emission trading policy, based on the sample data from 2002 to 2014, the directional distance function based on environmental technology is used. The output and emission reduction effects of sulfur dioxide emission trading policy compared with mandatory emission reduction in pilot provinces and cities are calculated. Finally, a dynamic behavior analysis model is built to set different output and emission reduction targets, and to analyze the dynamic effects of emission trading policy on potential output and potential emission reduction, and to find the most suitable development path of sulfur dioxide emission trading policy. The results show that: (1) from the perspective of practical effects, the emission trading policy has not realized the output effect and emission reduction effect. That is, the implementation of emission trading policy in China's pilot provinces and cities did not play a role in increasing the total industrial output value and reducing industrial sulfur dioxide emissions. (2) from the perspective of potential effects, To some extent, the emission trading policy realizes the effect of output and emission reduction. That is, from a potential point of view, the implementation of emission trading policies can increase gross industrial output and reduce industrial sulphur dioxide emissions, as opposed to mandatory emission reduction policies. And the potential advantage of emission trading policy becomes more and more obvious over time.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華僑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：X196

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