【摘要】： 隨著世界經(jīng)濟一體化的發(fā)展，企業(yè)面臨的競爭日趨激烈，企業(yè)投資活動中不確定因素日益增多，，各投資項目的實施面臨更多的風(fēng)險，并且風(fēng)險損失的規(guī)模也越來越大，因此對投資項目而言，除了進行可行性研究外，還必須進行全面的項目風(fēng)險分析。本文從企業(yè)的角度出發(fā)，探討了建設(shè)項目投資中風(fēng)險的識別、量化和評估的原則、方法和技術(shù)，并通過武漢市銀行機具廠“全自動捆鈔機”項目對這些風(fēng)險分析方法和技術(shù)進行了實證研究。 本文的理論研究部分，剖析了對一個工程項目進行風(fēng)險分析的三個步驟：風(fēng)險識別、風(fēng)險估計和風(fēng)險評價，介紹了專家調(diào)查法(包括個人判斷法、頭腦風(fēng)暴法和德爾菲法)、故障樹分析法、幕景分析法、篩選—監(jiān)測—診斷技術(shù)、風(fēng)險來源表和核對表等風(fēng)險識別常用方法，以及盈虧平衡分析、敏感性分析、主觀評分法、層次分析法、風(fēng)險報酬法、風(fēng)險當(dāng)量法、決策樹法、外推法、解析法、蒙特卡羅模擬法等風(fēng)險評估方法。 在實證研究部分，本文對武漢市銀行機具廠的“全自動捆鈔機”項目進行了全面的風(fēng)險分析，并提出了對該項目有指導(dǎo)意義的實施方案。文中首先用風(fēng)險來源表、風(fēng)險核對表辨識出該項目各個階段、各個層面的經(jīng)濟風(fēng)險和組織風(fēng)險，然后用風(fēng)險報酬法、決策樹法、解析法和蒙特卡洛模擬法對這些風(fēng)險作了分析和評估，并分析了其對項目財務(wù)評價指標(biāo)和項目實施的影響。 本文運用工程經(jīng)濟學(xué)、現(xiàn)代管理科學(xué)和風(fēng)險分析等多種學(xué)科的知識、理論與方法，采用定量分析與定性分析相結(jié)合，解析法、調(diào)查法與計算機模擬技術(shù)相結(jié)合的研究方法，以具體的工程項目為背景，剖析了投資項目風(fēng)險分析的全過程，為企業(yè)進行投資風(fēng)險分析、減少項目投資活動帶來的風(fēng)險損失提供了參考，具有較強的實用性和可操作性。
[Abstract]:With the development of the world economic integration, enterprises are facing more and more fierce competition, the uncertain factors in the enterprise investment activities are increasing day by day, the implementation of each investment project faces more and more risks, and the scale of risk loss is becoming larger and larger. Therefore, in addition to the feasibility study, it is necessary to carry out a comprehensive project risk analysis for the investment project. This paper discusses the principles, methods and techniques of risk identification, quantification and evaluation in construction project investment from the point of view of enterprise. The risk analysis methods and techniques are studied empirically through the project of "automatic banknote binding machine" in Wuhan bank tool factory. In the part of theoretical research, the paper analyzes three steps of risk analysis for a project: risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation, and introduces the method of expert investigation (including individual judgment method). Brainstorming and Delphi), fault tree analysis, scene analysis, screening-monitoring-diagnosis techniques, risk source lists and checklists, as well as breakeven analysis, sensitivity analysis, subjective scoring, etc. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), risk reward method, risk equivalent method, decision tree method, extrapolation method, analytical method, Monte Carlo simulation and other risk assessment methods. In the part of empirical research, this paper makes a comprehensive risk analysis on the project of "automatic banknote binding machine" in Wuhan City Bank tool Factory, and puts forward a guiding scheme for the project. In this paper, we first use the risk source table and the risk checklist to identify the economic risks and organizational risks at all levels of the project, and then we use the risk reward method and the decision tree method. The analytical method and Monte Carlo simulation analysis and evaluation of these risks and analysis of the impact on the project financial evaluation indicators and project implementation. This paper applies the knowledge, theories and methods of engineering economics, modern management science and risk analysis, and adopts the research method of combining quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis, analytical method, investigation method and computer simulation technology. Taking the concrete project as the background, this paper analyzes the whole process of investment project risk analysis, which provides a reference for enterprises to carry out investment risk analysis and reduces the risk loss caused by project investment activities. It has strong practicability and maneuverability.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2002
【分類號】：F062.4

【引證文獻】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 雍正韜;KG企業(yè)鈦材加工項目可行性分析[D];云南大學(xué);2010年

本文編號：2244342