【摘要】： 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的原因、內(nèi)在機(jī)制以及實(shí)現(xiàn)途徑,歷來就是經(jīng)濟(jì)理論研究中的核心問題。這個(gè)問題是如此迷人,贏得無數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家為之競折腰。 自亞當(dāng)·斯密發(fā)表《國富論》至今,歷經(jīng)哈羅德—多馬、索洛、李嘉圖和馬爾薩斯、卡爾多等人,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論洋洋大觀,但由于與當(dāng)時(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的階段所對應(yīng),在相當(dāng)長的時(shí)期內(nèi),經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家普遍關(guān)注的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長是指實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì),而且?guī)缀醵技杏陉U述資本積累、勞動(dòng)力增長和技術(shù)進(jìn)步等實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)變量與國民收入增長之間的關(guān)系,并且運(yùn)用了許多復(fù)雜的模型對它們之間關(guān)系進(jìn)行了表述。然而,當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的歷史現(xiàn)實(shí)早已今非昔比了:伴隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速增長,以債券、股票等為代表的虛擬資本數(shù)量在不斷膨脹,結(jié)構(gòu)也在不斷地發(fā)生著調(diào)整,特別是進(jìn)入20世紀(jì)70年代后,虛擬資本的數(shù)量出現(xiàn)了加速度的增長,經(jīng)濟(jì)的虛擬化成為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的一個(gè)的重要特色。 這就促使我們提出這樣的一個(gè)問題:在經(jīng)濟(jì)虛擬化背景下經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的主要?jiǎng)恿κ鞘裁?在實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)占主導(dǎo)地位的條件下得出來的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論依然適合嗎?如果不是的話,新的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模型又該如何構(gòu)建呢?本文的研究主題是經(jīng)濟(jì)虛擬化背景下的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的原因和機(jī)制,作者希望通過研究來構(gòu)建經(jīng)濟(jì)虛擬化背景下的新經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模型,并提出在和諧社會建設(shè)背景下的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的政策建議。 本文首先試圖梳理經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論的發(fā)展史,探討各種主要的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論的關(guān)注核心、其經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)意義及其存在的缺陷或局限性,對傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論提出了批判,并指出了在人的因素參與到經(jīng)濟(jì)金融系統(tǒng)中后經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論的可能方向;之后從虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)的概念與發(fā)展入手,回顧了虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)的基本內(nèi)涵和發(fā)展現(xiàn)況,結(jié)合本人的理解,著重分析了經(jīng)濟(jì)虛擬化背景下經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的復(fù)雜性;為此筆者著重引入了期望的概念,試圖對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長作人性化的解釋,從期望的內(nèi)涵、認(rèn)知發(fā)展、期望與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的國際經(jīng)驗(yàn)等入手闡述了期望與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系,并提出了期望價(jià)值論和期望強(qiáng)國論等獨(dú)特論點(diǎn);在上述理論的支撐下,本人提出了基于期望的虛擬財(cái)富、投資及內(nèi)生增長模型,并給予了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。在本文的最后部分,從實(shí)際操作的角度出發(fā),對我國市場經(jīng)濟(jì)的進(jìn)一步發(fā)展提出了合理的政策建議。 經(jīng)濟(jì)虛擬化背景下,經(jīng)濟(jì)的運(yùn)行變得更加復(fù)雜,虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)是一把“雙刃劍”:運(yùn)行的好便可為實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)員儲蓄、提供融資支持,分散經(jīng)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、降低交易成本,揭示和傳遞實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的信息、提高實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的效率,促進(jìn)資源的優(yōu)化效率、提高實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的效益,還會通過財(cái)富效應(yīng)刺激消費(fèi)和投資需求、拉動(dòng)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長。但虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展也會在一定程度上對實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響,例如減少進(jìn)入實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的資金,降低金融資源的利用效率,出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫,增加實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的運(yùn)行不穩(wěn)定性和投機(jī)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等。因此,以人的行為因素研究為基礎(chǔ),建立和維持人們的信心為導(dǎo)向的宏觀政策體系,以從根源上控制虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)向有利面發(fā)展,對整個(gè)國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展意義重大。希望本文能為我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康發(fā)展起到一定的推動(dòng)作用。
[Abstract]:The reason for economic growth, the internal mechanism and the way to achieve it, has always been the core issue in economic theory research. This issue is so fascinating that it has won numerous economists to bend over.
Since Adam Smith published the Wealth of Nations, after Harold-Thomas, Solo, Ricardo and Malthus, Carlo and other people, the theory of economic growth is vast, but because of the corresponding stage of economic development at that time, in a fairly long period of time, economists generally concerned about economic growth is the real economy, and almost all concentrated. However, the historical reality of contemporary economic growth is far from the past: with the rapid growth of the economy, bonds, stocks, etc. The number and structure of the virtual capital are constantly expanding. Especially in the 1970s, the number of the virtual capital has accelerated. The economic virtualization has become an important feature of economic development.
This prompts us to ask such a question: what is the main driving force of economic growth in the context of economic virtualization, and whether the economic growth theory derived from the dominant real economy is still suitable? If not, how to build a new economic growth model? The theme of this paper is economic virtualization. The author hopes to construct a new economic growth model under the background of economic virtualization by studying the causes and mechanisms of economic growth under the background of economic virtualization, and put forward policy recommendations for economic development under the background of building a harmonious society.
Firstly, this paper attempts to sort out the development history of economic growth theory, to explore the core concerns of various major economic growth theories, their economic significance and their shortcomings or limitations, to criticize the traditional economic growth theory, and to point out the possible direction of economic growth theory after human factors participate in the economic and financial system. Then, starting from the concept and development of virtual economy, this paper reviews the basic connotation and development status of virtual economy, and analyzes the complexity of economic growth under the background of economic virtualization in combination with my own understanding; for this reason, the author introduces the concept of expectation, and tries to explain the economic growth in a human-oriented way, from the connotation of expectation to cognitive development. In the last part of this paper, I propose a model of expectation-based virtual wealth, investment and endogenous growth, and give an empirical test. From the practical point of view, this paper puts forward reasonable policy suggestions for the further development of China's market economy.
Under the background of economic virtualization, the operation of the economy has become more complex, and the virtual economy is a "double-edged sword": a good operation can mobilize savings for the real economy, provide financing support, disperse operational risks, reduce transaction costs, reveal and transmit the information of the real economy, improve the efficiency of the operation of the real economy, and promote the optimization of resources efficiency. To improve the efficiency of the real economy, we can stimulate the consumption and investment demand through the wealth effect and stimulate the growth of the real economy. However, the development of the virtual economy will also have a negative impact on the real economy to a certain extent, such as reducing the capital into the real economy, reducing the efficiency of the use of financial resources, the emergence of economic bubbles, and increasing the real economy. Therefore, it is of great significance to the development of the whole national economy to establish and maintain a confidence-oriented macro-policy system based on the study of human behavioral factors and to control the virtual economy from the root to the beneficial side. Definite driving role.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2008
【分類號】：F224;F061.2

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)會議論文 前1條

1 李忠民;于江波;;基于馬克思虛擬資本理論下的金融危機(jī)研究[A];陜西省《資本論》研究會2009年學(xué)術(shù)年會論文集[C];2009年

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前4條

1 張國慶;后工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)與經(jīng)濟(jì)虛擬化研究[D];南開大學(xué);2010年

2 張?jiān)迫A;匯率變動(dòng)、宏觀調(diào)控與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長[D];上海社會科學(xué)院;2013年

3 胡曉;美國經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡及對世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響研究[D];南開大學(xué);2012年

4 許平祥;美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的“二元化”研究[D];南開大學(xué);2012年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 劉娟;當(dāng)前國際金融危機(jī)成因探討[D];四川師范大學(xué);2010年

2 王靜;安徽省旅游經(jīng)濟(jì)增長因素的實(shí)證研究[D];安徽大學(xué);2014年

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本文編號：2198243