技術(shù)溢出的空間計(jì)量和閾值回歸分析
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-22 12:27
【摘要】： 技術(shù)的溢出有多種途徑,按來(lái)源分有國(guó)際的技術(shù)溢出和國(guó)內(nèi)的地區(qū)間技術(shù)溢出,按渠道分可以依賴(lài)干中學(xué)、看中學(xué)、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中學(xué)、RD中學(xué)或人員交流,不同的行業(yè)有不同的渠道特點(diǎn)和溢出強(qiáng)度。技術(shù)是否能夠通過(guò)這些途徑溢出依賴(lài)于吸收方的技術(shù)水平或人力資本水平,當(dāng)他們的技術(shù)吸收能力滿(mǎn)足一定的門(mén)檻條件,才能產(chǎn)生正的技術(shù)溢出效應(yīng)。技術(shù)溢出由于人員流動(dòng)、信息傳播、產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易等原因存在空間相關(guān),且技術(shù)溢出存在與地理距離相關(guān)的傳播成本,這正是技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)高度聚集的原因。技術(shù)溢出的研究雖然很多,但是以上領(lǐng)域的研究存在很多空白和分析方法上的不足。我們利用閾值回歸來(lái)確定技術(shù)溢出的門(mén)檻條件,利用并改進(jìn)空間計(jì)量方法,分析技術(shù)的空間相關(guān)性分析估計(jì)技術(shù)溢出強(qiáng)度隨地理距離變化的模式,這些新方法的應(yīng)用是已有研究所未做的。 準(zhǔn)確衡量技術(shù)是分析技術(shù)溢出的基礎(chǔ)。本文估算并比較了技術(shù)的三種主要衡量形式:索洛剩余法TFP、DEA Malmquist指數(shù)法TFP和專(zhuān)利數(shù)據(jù)。通過(guò)分解經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)投入因素的貢獻(xiàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)技術(shù)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的驅(qū)動(dòng)能力越來(lái)越強(qiáng),1997年前主要表現(xiàn)為技術(shù)效率提高,1997年后純技術(shù)進(jìn)步的作用顯著而穩(wěn)定。技術(shù)和經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)都存在局部集聚性,技術(shù)的集聚度高于經(jīng)濟(jì);兩者的集聚度隨時(shí)間增強(qiáng),地理分布高度一致。技術(shù)的全局空間相關(guān)性低于經(jīng)濟(jì)正好解釋了技術(shù)的強(qiáng)集聚性。技術(shù)先進(jìn)地區(qū)和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)都偏于沿海。 閾值回歸表明,以受高等教育勞動(dòng)力占總勞動(dòng)力百分比表示的人力資本水平存在兩個(gè)門(mén)檻:4.85%和10.99%.當(dāng)人力資本水平達(dá)到4.85%的門(mén)檻時(shí),FDI對(duì)東道國(guó)技術(shù)進(jìn)步負(fù)擠出效應(yīng)減半;當(dāng)人力資本水平超過(guò)10.99%的符號(hào)改變門(mén)檻時(shí), FDI的負(fù)擠出效應(yīng)變?yōu)檎绯鲂?yīng)。從整體上看,我國(guó)人力資本水平低于符號(hào)改變門(mén)檻,但這并不意味著我國(guó)不能從FDI技術(shù)溢出中獲益。由于存在地區(qū)差異和顯著的省際技術(shù)溢出效應(yīng),處于門(mén)檻之下的相對(duì)落后地區(qū)可依賴(lài)超越門(mén)檻的發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū),由發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)吸收外部先進(jìn)技術(shù),而后通過(guò)省際技術(shù)溢出將技術(shù)擴(kuò)散到相對(duì)落后地區(qū)。 在內(nèi)部地區(qū)間存在經(jīng)濟(jì)和技術(shù)差異的發(fā)展中國(guó)家,省際技術(shù)溢出和外資技術(shù)溢出同等重要。本文的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)來(lái)自國(guó)內(nèi)的省際技術(shù)溢出比來(lái)自FDI的技術(shù)溢出貢獻(xiàn)更大。省際技術(shù)溢出強(qiáng)度和技術(shù)差距的關(guān)系是U型曲線(xiàn),技術(shù)門(mén)檻存在但處于值域的上界之外,因此技術(shù)差距越小則越容易發(fā)生技術(shù)溢出。干中學(xué)和RD是內(nèi)部獲取技術(shù)的穩(wěn)健渠道。RD在吸收FDI技術(shù)溢出方面發(fā)揮重要的作用。中西部的省際技術(shù)溢出效應(yīng)強(qiáng)于東部,落后地區(qū)同等投入的干中學(xué)和RD投入可以獲得比先進(jìn)地區(qū)更大的產(chǎn)出,說(shuō)明存在省際技術(shù)追趕的可能性。在發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū),技術(shù)進(jìn)步的主要來(lái)源是干中學(xué)、本土RD以及依賴(lài)RD吸收的FDI技術(shù)溢出。 隨地理距離快速下降的技術(shù)溢出效應(yīng)是導(dǎo)致技術(shù)和經(jīng)濟(jì)局部集聚的原因,基于空間計(jì)量方法和Romer研發(fā)模型的分析結(jié)果表明,在一到兩個(gè)省的范圍或800公里內(nèi)為技術(shù)的密集溢出區(qū),此范圍可用于考慮技術(shù)影響力的經(jīng)濟(jì)圈劃分;800公里以上為快速下降區(qū),技術(shù)溢出效應(yīng)強(qiáng)度減半的距離為1250公里。遠(yuǎn)距離時(shí)快速遞減的擴(kuò)散效應(yīng)和相對(duì)穩(wěn)定的繆爾達(dá)爾回流效應(yīng)是東西部發(fā)展不均問(wèn)題的原因之一。RD資本存量與創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)出之間存在理想的正線(xiàn)形關(guān)系;空間外部性主要通過(guò)誤差沖擊的空間傳遞來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn);RD外部性、人力資本流動(dòng)以及市場(chǎng)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和合作是導(dǎo)致創(chuàng)新溢出的主要原因。強(qiáng)化以上因素作用以及促進(jìn)信息高速公路、學(xué)術(shù)信息庫(kù)和技術(shù)交易市場(chǎng)的建設(shè)將有助于區(qū)域的平衡發(fā)展。 外貿(mào)和外資的技術(shù)溢出在不同行業(yè)存在差異。在不考慮吸收因素的交叉作用時(shí),外資對(duì)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)生負(fù)的擠出效應(yīng),其擠出效應(yīng)超出了其本身作為知識(shí)生產(chǎn)者的正面作用;內(nèi)資是否發(fā)揮作用的關(guān)鍵在于行業(yè)市場(chǎng)是否充分競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和是否重視研發(fā)的投入;外資技術(shù)溢出效應(yīng)顯著的部門(mén)是適宜“看中學(xué)”的行業(yè)和因?yàn)榧夹g(shù)差距較大而未與外資直接競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的企業(yè);出口貿(mào)易和干中學(xué)拉動(dòng)創(chuàng)新的關(guān)鍵在于生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品是否有較高的技術(shù)含量。 區(qū)域的專(zhuān)利數(shù)據(jù)由于人口流動(dòng)和知識(shí)傳播的原因,存在著空間相關(guān)。采用空間面板模型提高了模型的擬合度和系數(shù)的正確性。人口的流動(dòng)和流動(dòng)導(dǎo)致的人口的增量對(duì)專(zhuān)利創(chuàng)新有重要的影響,人口流入較多的地區(qū)專(zhuān)利創(chuàng)新多;經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)創(chuàng)新的影響是正面穩(wěn)定的且具有一定的局部性;高校教育有正面影響且空間相關(guān)性較大,但其作用尚待發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:There are many ways of technology spillover. According to the source, there are international technology spillovers and domestic technology spillovers. According to the channel, they can depend on the middle school, the middle school, the competition middle school, the RD middle school or the personnel exchange. The different industry has different channel characteristics and spillover intensity. Technical spillovers can produce positive technical spillover effects. Technology spillovers have spatial correlation due to personnel flow, information dissemination, product trade and other reasons, and technology spillovers are related to the ground distance, which is the high technology industry. There are a lot of research on technology spillovers, but there are many gaps in the field and the lack of analytical methods. We use threshold regression to determine the threshold conditions of technology spillovers, use and improve the spatial measurement method, analyze the spatial correlation analysis of technology to estimate the technological spillover intensity with the geographical distance. The application of these new methods has not been done by existing research.
Accurate measurement technology is the basis of analysis of technology spillovers. This paper estimates and compares three main measures of Technology: Solow residual method TFP, DEA Malmquist index TFP and patent data. By decomposition of the contribution of economic growth input factors, it is found that technology is becoming more and more powerful for economic growth. The main performance of technology before 1997 is technology. Efficiency is improved and the effect of pure technological progress is remarkable and stable after 1997. There are local agglomeration in both technology and economic activities. The agglomeration degree of technology is higher than that of economy. The concentration degree of both of them is enhanced with time and the geographical distribution is highly consistent. The global spatial correlation of technology is lower than economy to explain the strong agglomeration of technology. The economically developed areas are all off the coast.
The threshold regression shows that there are two barriers to human capital represented by the percentage of the higher education labor force in the total labor force: 4.85% and 10.99%., when the human capital level reaches the threshold of 4.85%, the negative extrusion effect of FDI on the host country's technological progress is halved; and the negative extrusion of FDI when the level of human capital exceeds the level of 10.99%. As a whole, the level of human capital in China is lower than the threshold of symbol change, but it does not mean that China can not benefit from the FDI technology spillover. Because of the regional differences and significant inter provincial technology spillovers, the relatively backward areas under the threshold can depend on the developed areas beyond the threshold. The region absorbs advanced technology, and then spreads technology to the relatively backward areas through inter provincial technology spillovers.
The inter provincial technology spillovers and foreign technology spillovers are equally important in the developing countries with internal regional economic and technical differences. The study found that the inter provincial spillover from the country is more contributing to the technology spillover from the FDI. The relationship between the inter provincial technology spillover and the technical gap is the U type curve, the technical threshold exists but is in the position of the technology gap. In addition to the upper boundary of the range, the smaller the technology gap, the more easy the technology spillover is, the dry middle school and the RD are the robust channels for internal acquisition technology,.RD plays an important role in absorbing FDI technology spillovers. The inter provincial technology spillover effect of the Midwest is stronger than the East, and the same input in the dry middle school and the RD input in the backward areas can be obtained more advanced. Greater regional output shows the possibility of inter provincial technology catching up. In developed areas, the main sources of technological progress are secondary schools, local RD and FDI technology spillovers that rely on the RD absorption.
The technological spillover effect of rapid decline with geographical distance is the cause of local agglomeration of technology and economy. The analysis based on the spatial measurement method and the Romer R & D model shows that a dense spillover area in the range of one to two provinces or 800 kilometers is a dense spillover area for technology, which can be used to consider the economic circle of technical influence; 800 km. The above is a rapid descent area. The distance of the technical spillover effect is 1250 km. The diffusion effect and the relatively stable Myrdal reflux effect are one of the reasons for the uneven development of the East and West. There is an ideal positive relationship between the.RD capital stock and the innovation output. RD externality, human capital flow and market competition and cooperation are the main causes of innovation spillover. Strengthening the role of the above factors and promoting the construction of the information highway, the academic information base and the technology trading market will contribute to the balanced development of the region.
The technological spillovers of foreign trade and foreign capital are different in different industries. In the absence of the cross effect of absorption factors, foreign investment has a negative extrude effect on technological innovation. The crowding out effect exceeds its own positive role as a knowledge producer; the key of whether the internal capital plays a role is whether the industry market is fully competitive and whether the market is heavy or not. In view of the investment in R & D, the sector which has a significant spillover effect of foreign capital is an industry suitable for "watching middle school" and the enterprises that have no direct competition with foreign investment because of the large gap in technology gap; the key to export and secondary school driving innovation lies in the high technical content of the products produced.
There are spatial correlations between the patent data of the region and the reasons for the spread of knowledge. The use of the spatial panel model improves the accuracy of the model's fitting and coefficient. The population increment caused by the flow and flow of the population has an important influence on the patent innovation, and the population flow into more areas has more patent innovation, and the economic growth is the same. The impact of innovation is positive and stable, and has a certain locality. College education has positive effects and spatial correlation, but its role remains to be developed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2008
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F224;F062.4
本文編號(hào)：2137464
[Abstract]:There are many ways of technology spillover. According to the source, there are international technology spillovers and domestic technology spillovers. According to the channel, they can depend on the middle school, the middle school, the competition middle school, the RD middle school or the personnel exchange. The different industry has different channel characteristics and spillover intensity. Technical spillovers can produce positive technical spillover effects. Technology spillovers have spatial correlation due to personnel flow, information dissemination, product trade and other reasons, and technology spillovers are related to the ground distance, which is the high technology industry. There are a lot of research on technology spillovers, but there are many gaps in the field and the lack of analytical methods. We use threshold regression to determine the threshold conditions of technology spillovers, use and improve the spatial measurement method, analyze the spatial correlation analysis of technology to estimate the technological spillover intensity with the geographical distance. The application of these new methods has not been done by existing research.
Accurate measurement technology is the basis of analysis of technology spillovers. This paper estimates and compares three main measures of Technology: Solow residual method TFP, DEA Malmquist index TFP and patent data. By decomposition of the contribution of economic growth input factors, it is found that technology is becoming more and more powerful for economic growth. The main performance of technology before 1997 is technology. Efficiency is improved and the effect of pure technological progress is remarkable and stable after 1997. There are local agglomeration in both technology and economic activities. The agglomeration degree of technology is higher than that of economy. The concentration degree of both of them is enhanced with time and the geographical distribution is highly consistent. The global spatial correlation of technology is lower than economy to explain the strong agglomeration of technology. The economically developed areas are all off the coast.
The threshold regression shows that there are two barriers to human capital represented by the percentage of the higher education labor force in the total labor force: 4.85% and 10.99%., when the human capital level reaches the threshold of 4.85%, the negative extrusion effect of FDI on the host country's technological progress is halved; and the negative extrusion of FDI when the level of human capital exceeds the level of 10.99%. As a whole, the level of human capital in China is lower than the threshold of symbol change, but it does not mean that China can not benefit from the FDI technology spillover. Because of the regional differences and significant inter provincial technology spillovers, the relatively backward areas under the threshold can depend on the developed areas beyond the threshold. The region absorbs advanced technology, and then spreads technology to the relatively backward areas through inter provincial technology spillovers.
The inter provincial technology spillovers and foreign technology spillovers are equally important in the developing countries with internal regional economic and technical differences. The study found that the inter provincial spillover from the country is more contributing to the technology spillover from the FDI. The relationship between the inter provincial technology spillover and the technical gap is the U type curve, the technical threshold exists but is in the position of the technology gap. In addition to the upper boundary of the range, the smaller the technology gap, the more easy the technology spillover is, the dry middle school and the RD are the robust channels for internal acquisition technology,.RD plays an important role in absorbing FDI technology spillovers. The inter provincial technology spillover effect of the Midwest is stronger than the East, and the same input in the dry middle school and the RD input in the backward areas can be obtained more advanced. Greater regional output shows the possibility of inter provincial technology catching up. In developed areas, the main sources of technological progress are secondary schools, local RD and FDI technology spillovers that rely on the RD absorption.
The technological spillover effect of rapid decline with geographical distance is the cause of local agglomeration of technology and economy. The analysis based on the spatial measurement method and the Romer R & D model shows that a dense spillover area in the range of one to two provinces or 800 kilometers is a dense spillover area for technology, which can be used to consider the economic circle of technical influence; 800 km. The above is a rapid descent area. The distance of the technical spillover effect is 1250 km. The diffusion effect and the relatively stable Myrdal reflux effect are one of the reasons for the uneven development of the East and West. There is an ideal positive relationship between the.RD capital stock and the innovation output. RD externality, human capital flow and market competition and cooperation are the main causes of innovation spillover. Strengthening the role of the above factors and promoting the construction of the information highway, the academic information base and the technology trading market will contribute to the balanced development of the region.
The technological spillovers of foreign trade and foreign capital are different in different industries. In the absence of the cross effect of absorption factors, foreign investment has a negative extrude effect on technological innovation. The crowding out effect exceeds its own positive role as a knowledge producer; the key of whether the internal capital plays a role is whether the industry market is fully competitive and whether the market is heavy or not. In view of the investment in R & D, the sector which has a significant spillover effect of foreign capital is an industry suitable for "watching middle school" and the enterprises that have no direct competition with foreign investment because of the large gap in technology gap; the key to export and secondary school driving innovation lies in the high technical content of the products produced.
There are spatial correlations between the patent data of the region and the reasons for the spread of knowledge. The use of the spatial panel model improves the accuracy of the model's fitting and coefficient. The population increment caused by the flow and flow of the population has an important influence on the patent innovation, and the population flow into more areas has more patent innovation, and the economic growth is the same. The impact of innovation is positive and stable, and has a certain locality. College education has positive effects and spatial correlation, but its role remains to be developed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2008
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F224;F062.4
【引證文獻(xiàn)】
相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前3條
1 張曉寧;產(chǎn)業(yè)集聚的技術(shù)溢出研究[D];西北大學(xué);2011年
2 張浩然;中國(guó)城市經(jīng)濟(jì)的空間集聚和外溢: 理論分析與經(jīng)驗(yàn)證據(jù)[D];吉林大學(xué);2012年
3 吳梅;廣東工業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)中知識(shí)溢出效應(yīng)的空間經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)量實(shí)證研究[D];華南理工大學(xué);2012年
相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條
1 唐國(guó)新;我國(guó)區(qū)域金融差異及其空間計(jì)量分析[D];復(fù)旦大學(xué);2011年
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