黑龍江省土地利用變化的碳排放效應(yīng)研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-15 12:31
【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的迅猛發(fā)展,碳排放量不斷上升,并嚴(yán)重影響氣候變化,加快了氣候變暖的步伐。已有研究表明:土地利用變化是造成碳排放增加的重要因素之一,其作用僅次于化石燃料的燃燒。由土地利用類型結(jié)構(gòu)變化所產(chǎn)生的碳排放量占人類總碳排放量的30%之多。黑龍江省是我國(guó)重要商品糧基地,但隨著近幾年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)迅速以及對(duì)糧食增產(chǎn)的迫切希望,土地利用變化強(qiáng)烈,碳排放量也持續(xù)增加,據(jù)有關(guān)學(xué)者研究,2001—2007年黑龍江省碳排放增加了55%,其導(dǎo)致的氣候變暖、降水異常等現(xiàn)象對(duì)糧食安全造成了嚴(yán)重影響。在如此背景下,本文選取黑龍江省為研究對(duì)象,分析2004-2012年各土地利用類型變化情況,利用相關(guān)模型研究土地利用變化強(qiáng)度和效益;選取適宜的碳排放核算模型,對(duì)黑龍江省各土地利用類型的碳排放/吸收量進(jìn)行核算,并對(duì)碳排放量的變化情況及趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行定量分析;通過(guò)研究土地利用碳排放邊際變動(dòng)、分析碳排放強(qiáng)度的時(shí)空變化,對(duì)黑龍江省土地利用碳排放的區(qū)際效應(yīng)進(jìn)行分析,分析黑龍江省土地利用變化的碳排放效應(yīng),最后從分別“碳減排”和“碳增匯”兩個(gè)方面提出相關(guān)對(duì)策及建議,以期為黑龍江省低碳土地利用提供依據(jù)和決策支持。主要結(jié)論如下:(1)黑龍江省2004-2012年間土地利用變化劇烈。變化幅度上,耕地、建設(shè)用地分別增加401.6萬(wàn)公頃、2.62萬(wàn)公頃,耕地面積變化幅度最大,其增加的速度大于建設(shè)用地增加速度;林地、牧草地、園地呈減少趨勢(shì),減少面積分別為114.82萬(wàn)公頃、16.87萬(wàn)公頃、1.52萬(wàn)公頃,減少的速度分別是:園地牧草地林地。(2)9a間土地利用碳排放量總體上呈現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì),變化幅度較為明顯,從2004年的36283.82萬(wàn)噸增長(zhǎng)到2012年的90471.49萬(wàn)噸,增副達(dá)到149%。從總體趨勢(shì)變化上看可歸納為兩個(gè)階段:第一階段:2004-2011年,為快速增長(zhǎng)期,總量增加了55214.44萬(wàn)噸,增幅達(dá)到152.2%;第二階段:2011-2012年,為平穩(wěn)下降期,總量減少了1026.77萬(wàn)噸,下降了1.1%。(3)從各土地利用類型來(lái)看,建設(shè)用地和耕地表現(xiàn)為碳源,耕地、林地、牧草地和園地表現(xiàn)為碳匯。區(qū)域碳排放絕大部分來(lái)自于建設(shè)用地,盡管農(nóng)用地碳排放持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),但其絕對(duì)量相對(duì)很小,對(duì)碳排放影響不大;耕地碳吸收呈現(xiàn)不規(guī)律波動(dòng);碳匯主要是耕地和林地,草地和園地由于面積原因?qū)μ嘉沼绊懞苄?凈碳排放量整體呈現(xiàn)上漲趨勢(shì),總碳排放量和凈碳排放量變化趨勢(shì)保持一致,其中碳排放量絕大部分來(lái)自于建設(shè)用地;地均碳排放強(qiáng)度、地均建設(shè)用地碳排放強(qiáng)度與工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平呈正比例關(guān)系,因此,今后應(yīng)重點(diǎn)控制建設(shè)用地上的碳排放。(4)黑龍江省碳排放區(qū)際差異非常明顯,碳排放大部分集中于南部的齊齊哈爾市、大慶市、綏化市、哈爾濱市四個(gè)地級(jí)市,2010年四者碳排放量占到全省的58.17%,伊春市、大興安嶺地區(qū)、牡丹江市碳排放總量和碳排放強(qiáng)度較低,其中伊春市碳排放強(qiáng)度在13個(gè)地級(jí)市中最低,僅為4.19噸/公頃。土地利用結(jié)構(gòu)中尤其是建設(shè)用地比例高低直接影響著碳排放強(qiáng)度的大小。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's social and economic development, carbon emissions are increasing, and climate change has been seriously affected and the pace of climate warming is accelerated. It has been shown that the change of land use is one of the most important factors for the increase of carbon emissions, and its role is second only to the burning of fossil fuels. Heilongjiang is an important commodity grain base in China. However, Heilongjiang province is an important commodity grain base in China. However, with the rapid economic growth and the urgent hope of increasing grain production in recent years, the change of land use is strong and the carbon emission is also increasing. According to the research of relevant scholars, the carbon emissions of Heilongjiang province increased by 55% in 2001 to 2007, and the gas caused by them has been increased. In this context, this paper selects Heilongjiang as the research object, analyzes the change of land use types in 2004-2012 years, uses the related models to study the intensity and benefit of land use change, and selects the appropriate carbon emission accounting model for each land in Heilongjiang province. The carbon emission and absorption of types are used to calculate the change and trend of carbon emissions, and the spatial and temporal changes of carbon emission intensity are analyzed by studying the marginal changes of carbon emissions from land use, and the interregional effects of land use carbon emissions in Heilongjiang province are analyzed, and the carbon of land use changes in Heilongjiang province is analyzed. In order to provide the basis and decision support for the low carbon land use in Heilongjiang, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) the land use change of Heilongjiang Province in 2004-2012 years is fierce. The change range, cultivated land and construction land are increased by 4 million 16 thousand respectively. Hectare, 26 thousand and 200 hectares, the largest change in cultivated land area, its increase speed is greater than the construction land increase speed; woodland, pasture, garden area is reduced, the area is 1 million 148 thousand and 200 hectares, 168 thousand and 700 hectares, 15 thousand and 200 hectares, respectively, the rate of reduction is: Garden pasture and grassland. (2) the carbon emissions of land use among 9A is generally present The current growth trend is more obvious, from 362 million 838 thousand and 200 tons in 2004 to 904 million 714 thousand and 900 tons in 2012. The increase of 149%. can be summed up in two stages from the general trend: the first stage: 2004-2011 years, for the rapid growth period, the total amount increased by 552 million 144 thousand and 400 tons, the increase reached 152.2%; the second stage: 2011-2012 years, flat. The steady decline period, the total amount reduced by 10 million 267 thousand and 700 tons, decreased by 1.1%. (3) from the land use types, the construction land and cultivated land showed carbon source, cultivated land, woodland, pasture land and garden land showed carbon sequestration. The vast majority of the carbon emissions from the area were from the construction land, although the carbon emissions of agricultural land were increasing, but the absolute amount of carbon emissions was relatively small, and carbon emissions were relatively small. The carbon absorption of cultivated land showed irregular fluctuation; the carbon sequestration was mainly cultivated land and woodland, the grassland and the garden land had little influence on carbon absorption because of the area; the net carbon emissions overall showed a rising trend, the total carbon emission and the net carbon emission trend remained consistent, and most of the carbon emissions were from the construction land; Carbon emission intensity, land average construction land carbon emission intensity and industrial economic development level has a positive proportional relationship, therefore, in the future, we should focus on controlling the carbon emissions in the construction land. (4) the inter regional difference of carbon emissions in Heilongjiang province is very obvious, most of the carbon emissions are concentrated in the Qigihar, Daqing, Suihua and Harbin cities in the southern part of the city. In 2010, four carbon emissions accounted for 58.17% of the whole province. The total carbon emission and carbon emission intensity of Yichun, Greater Khingan Range and Mudanjiang were low. The carbon emission intensity of Yichun was the lowest in 13 cities, only 4.19 tons / hectare. The proportion of land use structure, especially the construction land ratio, had a direct impact on the carbon emission intensity. Small.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F301.2;X196
本文編號(hào)：2124084
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's social and economic development, carbon emissions are increasing, and climate change has been seriously affected and the pace of climate warming is accelerated. It has been shown that the change of land use is one of the most important factors for the increase of carbon emissions, and its role is second only to the burning of fossil fuels. Heilongjiang is an important commodity grain base in China. However, Heilongjiang province is an important commodity grain base in China. However, with the rapid economic growth and the urgent hope of increasing grain production in recent years, the change of land use is strong and the carbon emission is also increasing. According to the research of relevant scholars, the carbon emissions of Heilongjiang province increased by 55% in 2001 to 2007, and the gas caused by them has been increased. In this context, this paper selects Heilongjiang as the research object, analyzes the change of land use types in 2004-2012 years, uses the related models to study the intensity and benefit of land use change, and selects the appropriate carbon emission accounting model for each land in Heilongjiang province. The carbon emission and absorption of types are used to calculate the change and trend of carbon emissions, and the spatial and temporal changes of carbon emission intensity are analyzed by studying the marginal changes of carbon emissions from land use, and the interregional effects of land use carbon emissions in Heilongjiang province are analyzed, and the carbon of land use changes in Heilongjiang province is analyzed. In order to provide the basis and decision support for the low carbon land use in Heilongjiang, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) the land use change of Heilongjiang Province in 2004-2012 years is fierce. The change range, cultivated land and construction land are increased by 4 million 16 thousand respectively. Hectare, 26 thousand and 200 hectares, the largest change in cultivated land area, its increase speed is greater than the construction land increase speed; woodland, pasture, garden area is reduced, the area is 1 million 148 thousand and 200 hectares, 168 thousand and 700 hectares, 15 thousand and 200 hectares, respectively, the rate of reduction is: Garden pasture and grassland. (2) the carbon emissions of land use among 9A is generally present The current growth trend is more obvious, from 362 million 838 thousand and 200 tons in 2004 to 904 million 714 thousand and 900 tons in 2012. The increase of 149%. can be summed up in two stages from the general trend: the first stage: 2004-2011 years, for the rapid growth period, the total amount increased by 552 million 144 thousand and 400 tons, the increase reached 152.2%; the second stage: 2011-2012 years, flat. The steady decline period, the total amount reduced by 10 million 267 thousand and 700 tons, decreased by 1.1%. (3) from the land use types, the construction land and cultivated land showed carbon source, cultivated land, woodland, pasture land and garden land showed carbon sequestration. The vast majority of the carbon emissions from the area were from the construction land, although the carbon emissions of agricultural land were increasing, but the absolute amount of carbon emissions was relatively small, and carbon emissions were relatively small. The carbon absorption of cultivated land showed irregular fluctuation; the carbon sequestration was mainly cultivated land and woodland, the grassland and the garden land had little influence on carbon absorption because of the area; the net carbon emissions overall showed a rising trend, the total carbon emission and the net carbon emission trend remained consistent, and most of the carbon emissions were from the construction land; Carbon emission intensity, land average construction land carbon emission intensity and industrial economic development level has a positive proportional relationship, therefore, in the future, we should focus on controlling the carbon emissions in the construction land. (4) the inter regional difference of carbon emissions in Heilongjiang province is very obvious, most of the carbon emissions are concentrated in the Qigihar, Daqing, Suihua and Harbin cities in the southern part of the city. In 2010, four carbon emissions accounted for 58.17% of the whole province. The total carbon emission and carbon emission intensity of Yichun, Greater Khingan Range and Mudanjiang were low. The carbon emission intensity of Yichun was the lowest in 13 cities, only 4.19 tons / hectare. The proportion of land use structure, especially the construction land ratio, had a direct impact on the carbon emission intensity. Small.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F301.2;X196
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