本文選題：復(fù)雜經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng) + 微觀分析模擬模型　； 參考：《太原科技大學(xué)》2011年碩士論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)作為由各種經(jīng)濟(jì)代理人組成的典型復(fù)雜系統(tǒng),在研究方法的重心上需要從傳統(tǒng)的均衡靜態(tài)模型轉(zhuǎn)向適合復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)研究的新型工具。微觀分析模擬模型是一種適合研究復(fù)雜經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的工具,自60年代出現(xiàn)以來,特別是八、九十年代在美國等國家獲得了很大的發(fā)展,出現(xiàn)了諸如TRIM2、ASPEN等著名的模型。然而國內(nèi)在這方面的研究還很薄弱。本文是對(duì)微觀分析模擬模型的一次探索。文章首先在研究一些國外著名模型的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合離散事件系統(tǒng)仿真技術(shù)與面向?qū)ο蠓椒ㄅc技術(shù)討論了微觀分析模擬模型建模的一般方法,提出了一種開發(fā)適合在計(jì)算機(jī)上運(yùn)行微觀模型的系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)方法——“代理人”——“規(guī)則表”——“事件表”系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)方法。之后,運(yùn)用文中提出的系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)方法建立了一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的二部門、三部門、四部門宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)仿真模型,構(gòu)建了基于不同結(jié)點(diǎn)的Agent的四類代理人;界定了個(gè)人、企業(yè)、政府、國外貿(mào)易的經(jīng)濟(jì)行為,并且應(yīng)用所建立的模型來模擬了二部門、三部門、四部門企業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的基本狀況,分析了在給定其它條件不變的條件下,投資增加時(shí),一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的GDP增加從而對(duì)整個(gè)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)以及其它企業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響,對(duì)結(jié)果進(jìn)行了分析并給出了一個(gè)仿真結(jié)果的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)解釋,從而驗(yàn)證了文中提出的系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)方法的可行性與正確性。最后討論了目前模型所存在的不足和需要進(jìn)一步研究的問題。 本文的主要內(nèi)容為以下幾個(gè)方面: (1)研究的背景與意義和國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀以及系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)目標(biāo)與設(shè)計(jì)思路; (2)系統(tǒng)實(shí)現(xiàn)相關(guān)基礎(chǔ)理論與系統(tǒng)應(yīng)用相關(guān)技術(shù)介紹; (3)Multi-Agent System經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)雜仿真系統(tǒng)的建模方法;建立了“代理人”——“規(guī)則表”——“事件表”的系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)方法; (4)微觀分析模擬中二部門、三部門、四部門主體分類統(tǒng)計(jì)與實(shí)現(xiàn);Agent結(jié)點(diǎn)仿真建模;結(jié)點(diǎn)與成員變量Agent的設(shè)定;各事件間的引發(fā)機(jī)制;基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)模板的構(gòu)建; (5)代理人Agent推理機(jī)與規(guī)則庫的設(shè)計(jì); (6)系統(tǒng)數(shù)據(jù)庫的設(shè)計(jì);基于三層架構(gòu)的.NET數(shù)據(jù)庫業(yè)務(wù)系統(tǒng)的開發(fā); (7)原形系統(tǒng)的設(shè)計(jì)與實(shí)現(xiàn);用戶層界面介紹與結(jié)果數(shù)據(jù)分析總結(jié)。
[Abstract]:As a typical complex system composed of various economic agents, economic system needs to change from the traditional equilibrium static model to a new tool suitable for complex system research. Microanalysis simulation model is a tool suitable for the study of complex economic systems. Since its emergence in 1960s, especially in the 1980s and 1990s, great progress has been made in the United States, and famous models such as Trim2Spen have emerged. However, domestic research in this area is still very weak. This paper is an exploration of microscopic analysis simulation model. Based on the research of some famous models in foreign countries, this paper discusses the general method of modeling microscopic analysis simulation model by combining the simulation technology of discrete event system and the object-oriented method and technology. In this paper, a system design method, "agent", "rule table" and "event table", which is suitable for running micro model on computer, is presented. Then, using the system design method proposed in this paper, the author establishes a simple market economy macroeconomic simulation model of two, three and four sectors, constructs four kinds of agents of Agent based on different nodes, defines the individual, the enterprise, The economic behavior of the government and foreign trade, and the application of the established model to simulate the basic conditions of the economic operation of enterprises in the second, third and fourth sectors. The effect of GDP increase in an economic system on the overall macroeconomic and other enterprise economies is analyzed and an economic explanation of the simulation results is given. The feasibility and correctness of the proposed system design method are verified. Finally, the shortcomings of the current model and the problems that need to be further studied are discussed. The main contents of this paper are as follows: (1) the background and significance of the research, the current research situation at home and abroad, the design objectives and design ideas of the system, (2) the basic theory and the basic theory of the system realization. (3) the modeling method of Multi-Agent system economic complex simulation system; The system design method of "agent"-"rule table"-"event table" is established. (4) in micro analysis simulation, the classification and statistics of agents in two departments, three departments and four departments are carried out and the simulation modeling of agent nodes is realized. The setting of node and member variable Agent, the trigger mechanism between events, the construction of basic data template, the design of agent Agent inference engine and rule base, (6) the design of system database; The development of .NET database business system based on three-tier architecture; (7) the design and implementation of prototype system; the introduction of user layer interface and the analysis and summary of result data.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：太原科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號(hào)】：TP18;F014

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