本文選題：碳排放 + 碳排放配額�。� 參考：《華東師范大學(xué)》2012年博士論文

【摘要】：最新研究表明,過去50年觀測到的變暖事實(shí)主要由人類活動引起,其中燃燒化石燃料產(chǎn)生的CO2是氣候變暖的主要原因。由此,減少CO2排放成為全球節(jié)能減排、保護(hù)地球環(huán)境的共同責(zé)任。為了遏制大氣中CO2濃度快速升高的趨勢,國際社會采取了一系列積極的措施,試圖減少化石燃料的碳排放。對中國而言,中國正處經(jīng)濟(jì)高速發(fā)展的階段,排放二氧化碳較多的煤炭在能源結(jié)構(gòu)中依然占據(jù)主要地位,隨著中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的進(jìn)一步發(fā)展,中國消耗能源將日益增多,碳排放空間將成為中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的約束。因此,估測我國未來的碳排放需求量以及研究我國實(shí)施碳排放配額的可行性具有重要的意義�；诖�,本文基于GIS平臺,對區(qū)域碳排放配額控制政策的模型進(jìn)行了探討,并對該模型的模擬系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行了研發(fā),試圖在理論上豐富區(qū)域集成評估模型(IRAM),應(yīng)用上解決中國的實(shí)際問題。由于國際上還沒有實(shí)施碳排放配額分配,我國也沒有確定總減排量,因此本文的研究更多地具有理論探索和技術(shù)探索的意義。 基于以上背景,在總結(jié)前人理論基礎(chǔ)與相關(guān)研究進(jìn)展的基礎(chǔ)上,本文對中國30個(gè)省市自治區(qū)(西藏缺數(shù)據(jù))2009-2050年在經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)增長(balance growth)軌道上的碳排放需求量進(jìn)行了估測,較系統(tǒng)、全面地探索了各省市自治區(qū)在未來一段時(shí)期的碳排放需求量,為中國各省市自治區(qū)碳排放目標(biāo)的設(shè)定和碳配額分配提供了重要的研究基礎(chǔ)。這里強(qiáng)調(diào)平穩(wěn)增長是為了保障碳減排不刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)。文章在此基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)一步探討了中國省域尺度上的碳排放配額分配方案,在五個(gè)碳排放分配原則下對中國初始碳排放權(quán)進(jìn)行了分配,并針對五個(gè)原則下30個(gè)省市自治區(qū)獲得配額量進(jìn)行了比較分析；隨后在獲得的五個(gè)原則下的配額量的約束下,計(jì)算得到社會福利最大化下的減排控制率,以及在減排控制率控制下的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長路徑,能源消費(fèi)路徑和能源碳排放路徑。試圖找出既能縮小區(qū)域差距,又符合中國區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的減排分配原則。這些建模成果、數(shù)據(jù)成果,最終建成在一個(gè)以GIS為基礎(chǔ)的政策模擬系統(tǒng)中。顯然中國未來確定的碳減排配額可能變動,碳減排分配原則可以調(diào)節(jié),由于這個(gè)系統(tǒng)的通用性,本文發(fā)展的模型和研發(fā)的系統(tǒng),可以基本滿足中國未來配額政策制定的需要。 本文共分為6章,其中第2至第4章為本文的建模主體內(nèi)容,第5章為系統(tǒng)開發(fā)內(nèi)容： 第1章,闡述研究背景與意義,并對相關(guān)理論與研究進(jìn)展進(jìn)行總結(jié)與梳理。 第2章根據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)動力學(xué)理論和碳排放動力模型,對全國各省市自治區(qū)的在平穩(wěn)增長條件下碳排放需求量進(jìn)行了估測,結(jié)果表明：(1)經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)增長條件下,中國各省域的經(jīng)濟(jì)總量和碳排放需求量均不斷增多。不同的是,東西部經(jīng)濟(jì)總量差距在不斷擴(kuò)大,碳排放總量差距在不斷縮小。(2)直轄市及東中部地區(qū)大部分省份能源強(qiáng)度下降速率高于西部地區(qū),而能源強(qiáng)度低于西部地區(qū),從而使西部地區(qū)將面臨著巨大的減排壓力。2020年以前,我國西部地區(qū)不可能達(dá)到減排40～45%的平均減排目標(biāo),因此東部地區(qū)在未來的減排過程中需要承擔(dān)更多責(zé)任。(3)中國大多數(shù)地區(qū)節(jié)能減排均處在良性發(fā)展階段,在發(fā)展低碳技術(shù)的前提下,其減排形勢是樂觀的。而經(jīng)濟(jì)欠發(fā)達(dá)的西部省區(qū)中,蒙古、寧夏,青海、貴州,節(jié)能減排壓力大,其減排途徑重點(diǎn)在于調(diào)整該地區(qū)的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),能源結(jié)構(gòu)和生產(chǎn)模式。(5)上海,北京,天津三個(gè)直轄市人均碳排放量都較大,主要是因?yàn)槿齻�(gè)城市的城市化水平都很高,而這也說明隨著我國城市化水平的提高,人均碳排放量將會上升,從而對碳減排造成一定阻力。 第3章探索了中國省域尺度上的碳配額分配方案,并試圖找出適合中國區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的減排分配原則。文章先以最優(yōu)控制論為基礎(chǔ),根據(jù)碳排放動力模型計(jì)算獲得未來中國各省市自治區(qū)在自由排放情景下的經(jīng)濟(jì)總量,人口總量和碳排放需求量,以此為基礎(chǔ),設(shè)定中國總配額量,按GDP原則,人口原則,GDP人口原則,支付能力原則,碳排放量原則對中國初始碳配額進(jìn)行分配。并與考慮歷史責(zé)任下(歷史累積碳排放量)五個(gè)原則分配的碳排放配額、碳排放缺口進(jìn)行對比分。結(jié)果表明：(1)按未來需求量分配碳排放配額更合理。(2)東部地區(qū)在GDP原則下獲得配額量多,碳排放權(quán)缺口最�。恢胁康貐^(qū)在人口原則下配額量較多；西部地區(qū)在支付能力原則下的碳排放盈余的省份最多；各區(qū)域在前瞻性原則和GDP人口原則下的配額差距相對較小。(3)我國面臨減排的配額壓力。 第4章在第3章結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上,更進(jìn)一步,以社會福利效益最大為準(zhǔn)則,以五個(gè)原則下分配的配額量為約束條件,構(gòu)建了減排最優(yōu)控制率模型。同時(shí)通過模型獲得在配額目標(biāo)下各省市自治區(qū)的減排控制率以及碳排放趨勢,通過分析發(fā)現(xiàn)： (1)各省市自治區(qū)在不同的原則下減排控制率不同,不同區(qū)域有適合其發(fā)展的分配原則。在按未來需求量分配的原則中,前瞻性原則下的省域減排控制率的差距最小。東部地區(qū)大部分省份在配額約束下GDP原則分配的減排控制率最小,西部地區(qū)大部分省份在支付能力原則下減排控制率最小。而中部地區(qū)大部分省份則在人口原則下減排控制率較小。 (2)減排控制率下的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長路徑都呈單調(diào)下降趨勢。各省份不同原則下的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長路徑下降速度存在差異,個(gè)別省份的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率會在后期呈負(fù)增長。大部分省份在5大原則下的碳排放路徑能源路徑都呈先升后降的趨勢,僅個(gè)別省份呈單調(diào)下降的趨勢。減排控制率的差距會影響區(qū)域內(nèi)部各原則之間的消費(fèi)路徑、碳排放路徑。而能源結(jié)構(gòu),產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),能源強(qiáng)度等因素的影響會影響某些省份碳排放路徑與其對應(yīng)的能源消費(fèi)路徑。 作為計(jì)算地理學(xué)研究論文,本文開發(fā)了名為“中國區(qū)域碳排放配額控制政策模擬系統(tǒng)”的空間決策支持系統(tǒng),該系統(tǒng)以GIS為基礎(chǔ),以省市自治區(qū)為數(shù)據(jù)單元構(gòu)成數(shù)據(jù)庫,模塊包含經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)增長率計(jì)算模型、碳排放需求估算模型、配額分配原則評估和減排控制率計(jì)算模型,本文對經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)增長下的配額分配政策模擬模型實(shí)現(xiàn)了可計(jì)算化。系統(tǒng)開發(fā)采用了面向?qū)ο蟮能浖_發(fā)路線,采用數(shù)據(jù)流方法設(shè)計(jì)系統(tǒng),系統(tǒng)的需求分析注重實(shí)用,可擴(kuò)張,易維護(hù),表達(dá)可視化程度高。這是基于GIS決策支持系統(tǒng)的一個(gè)類型。
[Abstract]:The latest research shows that the fact that the warming facts observed in the past 50 years is mainly caused by human activities, and the CO2 produced by burning fossil fuels is the main cause of climate warming. Thus, the reduction of CO2 emissions is the common responsibility of the global energy conservation and emission reduction and the protection of the earth's environment. In order to contain the trend of rapid increase in the concentration of CO2 in large gas, the international community A series of positive measures are taken to reduce the carbon emissions of fossil fuels. For China, China is in the stage of rapid economic development, and coal with more carbon dioxide emissions still occupies the main position in the energy structure. With the further development of China's economy, China's energy consumption will be increasing and the carbon emission space will become the medium. Therefore, it is of great significance to estimate the future carbon emission demand in China and to study the feasibility of implementing carbon emission quota in China. Based on this, this paper is based on the GIS platform to discuss the model of the regional carbon emission quota control policy and research the simulation system of the model. The rich regional integration evaluation model (IRAM) is used to solve the practical problems in China. Because of the lack of carbon emission quota allocation in the world, China has not determined the total displacement. Therefore, the research in this paper has more significance for theoretical exploration and technical exploration.
Based on the above background, on the basis of summarizing the previous theoretical basis and the related research progress, this paper estimates the carbon emissions demand on the balance growth track of 30 provinces and autonomous regions of China (the data lacking in Tibet) for 2009-2050 years, and systematically explores the future period of the provinces and autonomous regions in a comprehensive way. Carbon emissions demand provides an important research foundation for the setting of carbon emission targets and the allocation of carbon quotas in the provinces and municipalities of China. It is emphasized that the smooth growth is to ensure carbon emission reduction and not stimulate the economic crisis. On this basis, the paper further discusses the allocation scheme of carbon emission quotas on the provincial scale in China and five carbon emissions. Under the principle of distribution, the initial carbon emission rights of China are allocated, and the quota of 30 provinces and municipalities under the five principles is compared and analyzed. Under the restriction of the quota of five principles obtained, the control rate of the emission reduction under the maximum social welfare and the economic increase under the control of the reduction control rate are calculated. Long path, energy consumption path and energy carbon emission path. Try to find out the principle of reduction in reducing the regional gap, and in line with the development of China's regional economic development. These modeling results and data results are finally built in a GIS based policy simulation system. Obviously China's future carbon emission reduction quota may change, carbon reduction. The principle of scheduling can be adjusted. Due to the universality of this system, the model and the system developed in this paper can basically meet the needs of China's future quota policy formulation.
This paper is divided into 6 chapters, of which second to fourth chapters are the main content of the modeling. The fifth chapter is about the development of the system.
The first chapter describes the background and significance of the study, and summarizes the relevant theories and research progress.
The second chapter, based on the economic dynamics theory and the carbon emission dynamic model, estimates the carbon emissions demand of the provinces and autonomous regions under the condition of steady growth. The results show that: (1) the economic total and carbon emissions demand in all provinces and regions of China are increasing under the condition of smooth economic growth. The gap between the total carbon emissions is shrinking continuously. (2) the energy intensity decline rate of the municipalities directly under the central government and the eastern and central regions is higher than that in the western region, while the energy intensity is lower than that in the western region, so that the western region will face a huge emission reduction pressure of.2020 years, and the western region of China is unlikely to reach 40 to 45% of the emission reduction. The eastern region needs to undertake more responsibilities in the process of emission reduction in the future. (3) most of China's energy conservation and emission reduction are in the benign development stage. Under the premise of developing low carbon technology, the emission reduction situation is optimistic. In the underdeveloped western provinces, Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Guizhou, and the pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction The key to its emission reduction is to adjust the industrial structure, energy structure and production mode of the region. (5) the per capita carbon emissions of the three municipalities in Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin are large, mainly because the urbanization level of the three cities is very high, which also shows that the per capita carbon emissions will rise with the increase of the level of urbanization in China. It will cause some resistance to carbon emission reduction.
The third chapter explores the carbon quota allocation scheme on the provincial scale in China, and tries to find out the principle of emission reduction allocation suitable for the development of China's regional economic development. Based on the optimal control theory, the article calculates the total economic total, the total population and the carbon emissions in the free emission scenarios of the provinces and municipalities of China based on the carbon emission dynamic model. On the basis of the demand, the total quota of China is set, according to the GDP principle, the population principle, the GDP population principle, the principle of payment capacity, the carbon emission principle and the distribution of the initial carbon quota in China. The carbon emission quota, which is divided into five principles under the historical responsibility (historical cumulative carbon emissions), is divided into the result table. Ming: (1) it is more reasonable to allocate the carbon emission quota according to the future demand. (2) in the eastern region, the quota amount is obtained under the GDP principle, the carbon emission gap is the smallest, the quota of the central region is more in the population principle, the most of the provinces in the western region under the principle of payment of carbon, the prospective principle and the GDP population principle in each region. The quota gap is relatively small. (3) China is facing quota pressure on emission reduction.
In the fourth chapter, on the basis of the third chapter, further, taking the maximum social benefits as the criterion and taking the quota as the restriction under the five principles, the optimal control rate model is constructed, and the control rate and the carbon emission trend of the provinces and autonomous regions under the quota target are obtained by the model.
(1) the reduction control rate of the provinces and autonomous regions is different under different principles. There is a distribution principle suitable for its development in different regions. In the principle of future demand distribution, the gap of the control rate of provincial emission reduction is the smallest under the foresight principle. The reduction control rate of the GDP principle allocation under the quota arrangement is the smallest in most provinces in the eastern region. Most provinces in the region have the lowest emission reduction control under the principle of capacity to pay, while most provinces in the central part of the country have less control over emission reduction under the principle of population.
(2) the path of economic growth under the control rate of emission reduction has a monotonous decline trend. There is a difference in the decline rate of the economic growth path under different provinces in different provinces. The economic growth rate of individual provinces will show negative growth in the later period. In most provinces, the energy path of the carbon emission path under the 5 principles is all rising and then decreasing, only in a few provinces The trend of monotonous decline. The gap between the control rate of emission reduction will affect the consumption path between the principles in the region, and the carbon emission path. The influence of energy structure, industrial structure, energy intensity and other factors will affect the path of carbon emission and its corresponding energy consumption path in some provinces.
As a computational geography research paper, this paper develops a spatial decision support system called "China's regional carbon emission quota control policy simulation system". The system is based on GIS and uses the provincial and municipal autonomous region as the data unit to form a database. The module includes a stable economic growth rate calculation model, a carbon emission demand estimation model, and a quota. In this paper, the simulation model of quota allocation policy under steady economic growth is computable. The system development adopts object-oriented software development route, and uses data flow method to design the system. The system needs analysis to be practical, expansible, easy to maintain and high level of visualization. This is a type based on the GIS decision support system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：X196

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 鄧吉祥;區(qū)域能源與碳排放戰(zhàn)略決策支持的模型探索與系統(tǒng)開發(fā)[D];華東師范大學(xué);2014年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 徐向浩;基于數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)分析的紡織印染廠環(huán)境效率評價(jià)研究[D];杭州電子科技大學(xué);2013年

2 張磊;基于計(jì)算機(jī)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的碳排放權(quán)交易實(shí)驗(yàn)平臺設(shè)計(jì)與實(shí)現(xiàn)[D];華東師范大學(xué);2013年

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本文編號：1909725