本文選題：貨幣供給　切入點：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長　出處：《西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2001年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來，貨幣政策一再受到人們的關(guān)注，這種關(guān)注從根本上說是源于貨幣政策跟經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系、對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用。這是一個很大的課題，對于貨幣政策的研究，或多或少是論及這個課題的一部分，或是它的一個子課題。在眾多的有關(guān)貨幣政策的著作、文獻(xiàn)中，系統(tǒng)論述、分析我國貨幣供給對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長作用的并不多見。本文希望在這方面作出一些努力，充實這方面的工作。 本文的一、二章構(gòu)架理論分析框架，包括長期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、短期貨幣供給對需求的作用以及貨幣供給作用于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的原因三個方面的理論及模型，以期在理論的指導(dǎo)下正確、適當(dāng)?shù)卣J(rèn)識貨幣供給在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中的地位和作用。三、四章運(yùn)用西方貨幣經(jīng)濟(jì)理論，借鑒其思路，并結(jié)合我國的特殊情況，分析1984年來我國貨幣供給對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用，主要是貨幣供給與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長變動的同向性問題。本文結(jié)論是我國貨幣供給與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的同向聯(lián)系成立，貨幣供給對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長發(fā)揮著重要作用。 長期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長分析排除貨幣因素。長期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長分析采用總生產(chǎn)函數(shù)，基本框架是索洛模型和增長核算。索洛模型展示了一個穩(wěn)定的動態(tài)增長過程，經(jīng)濟(jì)能夠克服失調(diào)現(xiàn)象，穩(wěn)定地增長下去。結(jié)論是均衡狀態(tài)下惟有技術(shù)進(jìn)步才能解釋勞均產(chǎn)出Y/L的持續(xù)增長，進(jìn)而人均產(chǎn)出的持續(xù)增長；勞動力（人口）增長以及技術(shù)進(jìn)步共同解釋了總產(chǎn)出的持續(xù)增長；儲蓄率的作用在于影響穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)的資本存量水平。增長核算將運(yùn)行在非均衡狀態(tài)下的現(xiàn)實經(jīng)濟(jì)增長分解為資本、勞動和技術(shù)進(jìn)步（全要素生產(chǎn)率）三者貢獻(xiàn)之和：，它通過計量手段來揭示經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的真實情況。此外，將貨幣引入經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模型的嘗試并沒有得出積極的結(jié)論。 對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的短期分析通常從需求方入手，這是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中廣為接受的觀點：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長長期由供給決定，短期受需求制約�？傊С龇匠蘗=C+I+G+（X-M）表明貨幣供給可通過消費(fèi)、投資、政府支出、進(jìn)口與出口四個途徑來影響總產(chǎn)出。凱恩斯貨幣理論中貨幣供給作用于WP=3產(chǎn)出，主要在于貨幣可以左右利率。貨幣、利率是提高有效需求的關(guān)鍵變量，刺激投資的唯一途徑還在于降低利率，控制貨幣數(shù)量、調(diào)節(jié)利率、促進(jìn)投資、增加有效需求、擴(kuò)大生產(chǎn)、增加就業(yè)，這就是凱恩斯的宏觀貨幣政策。對此，羅納德·麥金農(nóng)和愛德華·肖分析發(fā)展中國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)金融情況后提出不同的觀點。他們指出，發(fā)展中國家存在利率管制、信貸配給等管制措施，是阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的主要原因。在金融壓制情況下，貨幣的供求狀況和利率的決定是分離的，，貨幣并不能左右利率水平。正確的對策是提高利率使之更接近市場均衡利率，提高貨幣的實際收益率促進(jìn)儲蓄和投資。弗里德曼沒有糾纏于傳導(dǎo)、作用的途徑，而是在實證分析的基礎(chǔ)上提綱挈領(lǐng)地捕捉住貨幣與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系。他的觀點是，只要是新增貨幣，那么無論是由政府還是由私人來花費(fèi)，都可以周期性地刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)。他舉日本和美國近年的經(jīng)驗為例說明貨幣供給決定了經(jīng)濟(jì)的走向。 總需求方程y=a(m-p)表明貨幣可以影響需求，但如果貨幣供給變動引起價格水平的相同變化，總產(chǎn)出并不改變。因此，有必要對供給方面進(jìn)行分析，尋求對貨幣供給作用于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長原因更有說服力的解釋。凱恩斯的“工資-價格”機(jī)制基于名義工資剛性或粘性，名義工資的變動滯后于物價變動，因此增加貨幣供給推動價格上升，實際工資下降，因而產(chǎn)出增加。進(jìn)一步的研究認(rèn)為名義貨幣量的變動對商品價格的變動影響不大，但工人工資的增加會立刻、完全反映到商品的價格上，結(jié)論是貨幣供給的增加短期內(nèi)帶動產(chǎn)出增加，長期產(chǎn)出回落到正常水平。盧卡斯模型引入了信息不完全。由于廠商將貨幣總量變化誤認(rèn)為是相對價格變化，因而改變產(chǎn)出量，由此未預(yù)期的貨幣供給變化可以影響產(chǎn)出。費(fèi)雪模型的結(jié)論是貨幣對產(chǎn)出的作用持續(xù)兩個時期，調(diào)整貨幣供給可以減少產(chǎn)出波動。泰勒模型給出了工資行為的另一種解釋，表明貨幣供給對產(chǎn)出的影響遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出兩個時期。 上面的理論探討對于分析和認(rèn)識我國貨幣供給對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用有重要的政策含義：1、應(yīng)當(dāng)適當(dāng)認(rèn)識貨幣供給對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用。實證研究證實貨幣供給不是我國長期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的決定因素，完全依靠資本、勞動投入的增長不可能長期維持經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速增長，貨幣供給不能WP=4解釋全要素生產(chǎn)率，這都說明貨幣供給對長期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用有限。2、和發(fā)達(dá)市場經(jīng)濟(jì)國家相比，我國貨幣供給調(diào)控經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的空間更大。工資或價格粘性、信息不完全、不完全競爭市場等因素都為貨幣供給提供了作用空間，我國市場發(fā)展?fàn)顩r遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落后于發(fā)達(dá)國家，貨幣供給的作用將更多反映在產(chǎn)出上，較少反映在價格上。3、隨著以市場為取向的經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革的推進(jìn)和深入，貨幣供給調(diào)控經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的難度逐步增大�？偭孔兞康淖儎优c微觀主體行為的關(guān)聯(lián)弱化，向完善市場狀況演進(jìn)的結(jié)果是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長越來越不易被貨幣供給所影響，兩者的相關(guān)性減弱。 第三章分析了我國貨幣供給作用的特殊性。1、基礎(chǔ)貨幣的供給基本上通過外匯占款、對政府債權(quán)和對存款貨幣銀行債權(quán)這幾個渠道進(jìn)行，不過它們都存在約束，因而調(diào)控基礎(chǔ)貨幣的渠道并不通暢。傳統(tǒng)的信貸規(guī)�？刂啤⒔晟虡I(yè)銀行保守經(jīng)營行為先后成為影響貨幣派生、創(chuàng)造的重要因素。2、國有銀行具有追
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, monetary policy has attracted people's attention, this concern is fundamentally due to the monetary policy and the relationship between economic growth, the role of economic growth. This is a big topic for the study of monetary policy, more or less is part of this subject is a sub subject, or it. In many of the relevant monetary policy works in the literature, systematically discusses the analysis of China's money supply to economic growth is rare. This paper hopes to make some efforts in this regard, enrich the work.
In this paper, the two chapter theory analysis framework, including long-term economic growth, short-term effect of money supply on demand and money supply for the reason of economic growth theory and model three aspects, in order to correctly under the guidance of the theory, status and role of proper understanding of the money supply in the economic growth in three. The four chapter, using the western monetary theory, referring to the idea, and combined with the special circumstances of our country, analysis of 1984 China's money supply to the economic growth is mainly money supply and economic growth in the same to the problem. The conclusion of this paper is to establish contact with the money supply and economic growth in China. The money supply plays an important role in economic growth.
The long-term economic growth analysis excluding currency factors. The long-term economic growth analysis using the total production function, the basic framework is the Solow model and growth accounting. The Solow model shows a stable dynamic growth process, to overcome the economic imbalances, steady growth down. Conclusion is the equilibrium state but the technological progress in order to explain the continued growth in output per worker Y/L the continued growth and per capita output; labor (population) growth and technological progress together explain sustained growth of total output; the savings rate is affected the steady state capital stock level. Growth accounting will run in the non balanced state of the real economic growth into the capital, labor and technology progress (total factor the three contribution of productivity), and it is measured by: means to reveal the true situation of economic operation. In addition, the money into the economic growth model The attempt did not come to a positive conclusion.
Analysis on short-term economic growth usually starts from the demand side, it is widely accepted in Economics: economic growth by the long-term supply decision, short-term demand constrained. The total Y=C+I+G+ equation (X-M) show that the money supply through consumption, investment, government expenditure, import and export of four ways to influence the total output. Keynes monetary theory of money supply to WP=3 output, is mainly about currency interest rate. The currency, interest rate is the key variables to improve the effective demand, the only way is to stimulate investment, lower interest rates, control the quantity of money, interest rate adjustment, promote investment, increase effective demand, expand production, increase employment, this is Keynes the macro monetary policy. In this regard, Ronald McKinnon and Edward Seaan, the economic analysis of developing countries financial situation to put forward different opinions. They pointed out that developing countries exist The interest rate control, credit rationing and other control measures, are the main reasons hindering economic development. In the case of financial repression, the situation of supply and demand and interest rates decision is the separation of the money and not about interest rates. The right strategy is to raise interest rates to make it more close to the market equilibrium interest rate, improve the real return rate to promote monetary savings and investment. Freedman did not dwell on the conduction function way, but in the empirical analysis based on the brief outline to capture monetary and economic growth. In his view, as long as the new currency, so whether by the government or by private spending, can periodically stimulate the economy. He cited Japan and the United States in recent years of experience as an example of the money supply determines the direction of economic development.
The aggregate demand equation y=a (M-P) that can affect the monetary demand, but if the change of money supply caused by the same change in the price level, the total output does not change. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the supply side of the money supply, seeking to more economic growth causes convincing explanation. Keynes's "wage price" mechanism based on the nominal wage rigidity or stickiness, nominal wage change lags behind the price changes, therefore increase the money supply, pushing prices to rise, real wages, and increased output. Further research that changes the name of the change in the amount of money on commodity prices have little effect, but the wage increased quickly, fully reflected in the price of commodities. The conclusion is an increase in the money supply in the short term to increase output, long-term output dropped to normal levels. Lucas model is introduced into the incomplete information. Because the manufacturers will The amount of money change mistaken for relative price changes, thus changing the output, which is not expected to change in money supply can affect the output of the Fisher. The conclusion of the model is that the effects of money on output for the two period, adjust the money supply can reduce the output volatility. Taylor model gives another explanation of wage behavior, showed that the effect of currency the supply of output far exceeded two times.
The above theoretical study for the analysis and understanding of China's money supply has important policy implications for economic growth: 1, should be the proper understanding of money supply on economic growth. The empirical study confirmed that the money supply is not China's long-term economic growth depends entirely on the determinants of capital, growth of labor input could not maintain rapid growth economy in the long term, the money supply can not explain WP=4 TFP, which shows that the money supply for long-term economic growth limited.2, compared with the developed countries of market economy, the spatial regulation of money supply in China economic growth. More wage or price stickiness, incomplete information, incomplete market competition and other factors are provided the role of space for the money supply, the market development status in our country is far behind the developed countries, the money supply will be more reflected in the role of output, less reflected in the The price of.3, with the market to promote and further orientation of economic reform, the difficulty of money supply control economic growth gradually increased. The total variation and weakening the association behavior, to perfect the market situation the evolution of economic growth is more and more difficult to be affected by money supply, weaken the correlation between the two.
The third chapter analyzes the particularity of China's money supply function.1, the supply of base money basically through foreign exchange, the government debt and claims on deposit money banks of these channels, but they are constrained, thus controlling base money channels is not smooth. The credit scale control of traditional commercial banks in recent years, conservative business behavior has become the important factor affecting monetary derivative, created by.2, the state-owned banks chase

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2001
【分類號】：F832;F061.2

【引證文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前3條

1 姚佳;中國貨幣供應(yīng)量與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的關(guān)系[D];天津財經(jīng)大學(xué);2011年

2 諶帥;我國貨幣供應(yīng)量與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和物價水平的關(guān)系研究[D];河北大學(xué);2010年

3 陳青;人民幣利率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制研究[D];南昌大學(xué);2012年

本文編號：1654331